(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

[OnePeppyFatball]

Part 5

On rockets.

Diego Garcia. Iran missed.

And everyone yells " Iran targeted Diego Garcia, see how evil and irrational they are"

But no. Because the people who understand rockets, on both sides, might see it as a message. Jack Ryan style. Because Iran might have been saying " We can't hit Diego Garcia. And when one thinks that way, then it is 4d chess. Remember, the lack of info about where the rockets failed, or where intercepted?

It's the same with the DPRK and it's missile tests. They get the altitude that suggests they could hit Alaska if they changed the angle. But the angle is very important. It is much easier to go straight up and down. Actual proper full range ICBM tests are very rare. And I think a large part of that is because it is incredibly difficult to get it to work, and if it fails, the other side will know.

It's an aspect of MAD. What % of the ICBMs will work. We assume 100%, but in reality, it is nowhere near that.

It must be noted that the late Khamenei specifically instructed the Iranian military to limit the range of it's missile back in 2017:
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/iran-restricts-range-of-its-ballistic-missiles-but-they-can-still-reach-israel/

"Iran’s supreme leader has restricted the range of ballistic missiles manufactured in the country to 1,240 miles, the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has said.

The decision limits the reach of the weapons to only regional Middle Eastern targets.

The range encompasses much of the Middle East, including Israel and American military bases in the region......

......
It also appears to be an effort by Iranian authorities to contrast its programme, which they often describe as for defensive purposes, against those of countries like North Korea, which now uses its arsenal to threaten the United States.......

......However, Gen Jafari said he did not believe there would be any war between Iran and the US.

......“They know that if they begin a war between Iran and the United States, they will definitely be the main losers and their victory will by no means be guaranteed,” he said.

“Therefore, they won’t start a war.”...

Wowsers at the almost almost prophetic prediction of the current status back in 2017!

Also just in:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/10/04/iran-to-increase-the-range-of-its-missiles-army-spokesperson-tells-fars

"Iran will upgrade the range of its missiles following the war with the US as American forces are now positioned as much as 1,000 km (621 miles) away from the Iranian coast, Army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia told Fars news on Sunday."

What Trump and all his ill advised foolish warmongers and the hit em hard crew failed to realise was that it was always a choice for Iran to limit themselves, that the Iranians made as concession to be left alone.

It was never due to a lack of ability, in terms of IQ Iranians rank in the top 5. The decision not to make nukes, to build more destructive weapons were partly due to Shia religious dictate by the old Ayatollah and the fact that America had not overtly attacked Iran yet. All destroyed by Trump et al. Yay!

One question. Logically he should be on Kims case. So why is he not ? The DPRK are closer to hitting the US with a nuke. But instead he has been exchanging "love letters".

I think the answer word starts with an "O".

And yet people keep saying it is about liberating the people.

If it's the 'O' that I'm thinking about then yes the Orange one is irrationally jealous of him. I tend to think it's about Money, money, money.

There have been a few exposé on the Trump family (looking at you Jared) and his close friends benefiting extremely well financially from the current conflicts and the $200 million Miriam Adelson donation.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/10/jared-kushner-affinity-partners-israel-gaza-cnn-russia-ukraine-new-york-times-saudi-arabia-iran-diplomaacy/

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/01/us/jared-kushner-israel-gaza-investments-invs-vis

P.s "Liberation" and "bringing democracy" is the fluffy way to get normies to buy into actions that long term make them poorer, lesson 101 from Edward Bernays on propaganda. Sell them fear and they'll accept almost anything.

note the easiest way to shut up the remigration Tommy Robinson sorts is to remind them that a lot of the current migration is due to wars that their politicians actively started.

Thankfully America First have learned this from Trump’s actions and now are actively opposing the MAGA warmongers.

Venezuela isn’t being crushed.
Ah, Vz. My specialist subject.
Well Vz isn't exactly free to do what it wants either. In practical terms, Vz is being crushed as the opportunity to move away from the Maduro gov't policies was ignored by Trump. And their government is considerably constrained by U.S. economic and political leverage as the WH regime claims to 'protect' Vz oil assets.

What's happening in Vz that make you think it hasn't been 'crushed', is happening because the Trump needs what Vz has, right now and they have no say in doing things differently.

Extract from a White House Fact Sheet
PROTECTING VENEZUELAN OIL REVENUE: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order declaring a national emergency to safeguard Venezuelan oil revenue held in U.S. Treasury accounts from attachment or judicial process, ensuring these funds are preserved to advance U.S. foreign policy objectives.

• The Order blocks any attachment, judgment, decree, lien, execution, garnishment, or other judicial process against Foreign Government Deposit Funds.
• Foreign Government Deposit Funds are defined as the Venezuelan oil revenues and diluent sales held in U.S. Treasury accounts.
• The Order prohibits transfers or dealings in these funds except as authorized, superseding any prior Orders that might block or regulate them.
• The Order affirms the funds are sovereign property of Venezuela held in U.S. custody for governmental and diplomatic purposes, not subject to private claims.

ADVANCING U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY: President Trump is preventing the seizure of Venezuelan oil revenue that could undermine critical U.S. efforts to ensure economic and political stability in Venezuela.

From AI.

Economic bargaining power → severely constrained
Ability to pursue an independent foreign policy → substantially constrained
Ability to refuse every U.S. demand without consequences → limited

There is also an important question underneath your question: how much of Rodríguez's government is actually autonomous versus effectively operating within parameters set by Washington? That's a more interesting—and more complicated—issue, because the U.S. has explicitly described its goal as influencing the direction of Venezuela's political transition while not formally running its day-to-day government.

My reasons.

1. Trump seizing and selling tankers of oil, then depositing the proceeds into a Qatari bank account he controls.
2. The figurehead Rodriguez 'interim' presidency (with no calls for elections) is a corrupt kleptocracy with jobs for the boys, running a 530+% inflation with US blessing.
3. The August 2026 U.S.-Vz oil arrangement that gives a U.S.-linked venture extensive rights over 17 oil fields.
4. Trump's insistence that Vz has to pay first for the lost revenue when US O&G companies were expelled years ago before the country gets its own money.
5. The Vz people are yet to receive economic benefits flowing from replacing Maduro with Rodriguez. Many live in abject poverty.

@Newbutoldfather I wasn't being pedantic about the nukes. Previous discussions here have been about the differing accounts on how close Iran was to being nuclear capable and the lack of definitive facts. No one knows what's inside Pickaxe Mt and the balance of probability on what one believes depends on 'picking a side' from available information.
I prefer being precise to being pedantic.

Aah the traitor Delcy Rodríguez, and the paid off Venezuelan military that failed to activate the air defences.

Trump’s mate/donor billionaire Paul Singer "winning" the court case in America after pushing for the regime change, conveniently owning CITGO.

"In 2024, Singer, an 81-year-old with a net worth of $6.7 billion, donated $5 million to Make America Great Again Inc., Trump’s Super PAC. Singer donated tens of millions more in the 2024 cycle to support Trump’s allies, including $37 million to support the election of Republicans to Congress. He also donated an undisclosed amount to fund Trump’s second transition.

In November 2025, less than two months before Trump’s operation to take over Venezuela, Singer’s investment firm, Elliott Investment Management, inked a highly fortuitous deal.

It purchased Citgo, the US-based subsidiary of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, for $5.9 billion—a sale that was forced by a Delaware court after Venezuela defaulted on its bond payments.

Elliott Management hailed the court order requiring the sale in a press release, saying it was “backed by a group of strategic US energy investors.”

https://asiatimes.com/2026/01/billionaire-trump-megadonor-set-to-make-killing-on-venezuela-oil/

The Chavismos are still around, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/venezuela-maduro-juan-contreras-trump-oil

OK, what is the "O"?🤔

The reason why Trump hasn't gone after Kim (apart from admiring his authoritarian powers) is that it is a known fact that North Korea does have nuclear weapons. He is also aware that there is a real possibility that NK will retaliate by targetting SK and even Japan. And everything will then go tits up (to put it mildly) when China gets dragged into it.
So the only tool in Trump's arsenal is to keep trying diplomacy. What a shame he doesn't have a spare panda or two to gift Kim.

Trump respects power. He targetted Iran because he wanted to please Bibi, saw it as weak and believed the lie that victory would be achieved in 'two weeks'.

Which reminds me...
Iran's targetting of neighbouring countries isn't to 'punish' them. It's a psychological, tactical strategy. The countries understand what it means.

Exactly, it's like agreeing to be a getaway driver and then claiming innocence when the crew is caught by the police, you were fully complicit.

Those countries knew what it meant to host US bases. Iran clearly stated what would happen repeatedly over the years if those bases were used to target Iran.

They need to accept that they like Trump hoped to benefit by the destruction of Iran financially and in terms of influence, they had big plans.

The crocodile tears now are super annoying. Do the crime, do the time.

crocodile tears ... how sympathetic.

Are we now supposed to be sympathetic to the countries that hitched their star to Trump and getting 'less than' in return?

My sympathies in this unnecessary war, are ENTIRELY for the ordinary man in the street in Iran. Whether or not they support their leaders, they're the ones paying the price of the economic sanctions and bombings. And don't start me on Minab.

America elected Trump and they have to accept responsibility for his actions. I have no sympathy for Magats.

Thanks @trumpredcard. I missed @Newbutoldfather's father, I think because I saw a further question/misunderstanding from @Twiglets1 further down so assumed it hadn't been answered. Anyway, I agree that @Newbutoldfather was a decent explanation, although I don't agree with this section fully, that is to say that I 100% agree with the first section but not the second about nation building. They spend decades in these areas and were incapable of 'nation building' and/or were far more interested in grabbing the Iraqi oil. Let's not be naive about US aims! It's not 'spreading democracy' nor is it stopping a country from having nukes.

'That should have been a lesson both for Israel and the U.S about wars with ill defined objectives and no desire to really remain and nation build'.

100% this and what @BelleHathor said about getaway car drivers/behind the scenes operatives or whatever. These countries aided the war against Iran, etc, etc.

My sympathy is also entirely with the ordinary civilian (including the women, remember the women-the ones people wanted to free) who are getting bombed, destroyed, starved, unable to acquire medical necessities, etc in Iran and the other countries affected. It turns out that those of us who were totally against this war at the start actually care more about these innocent people.

Honestly, it seems as if the leadership in these GCC countries (SA, Qatar, UAE) are floundering around, confused about what they actually want. They are now sending mixed messages, as they obviously feel let down by the US but have billions, maybe trillions in the US which they won't be able to withdraw, have been on the US team for decades....but Iran is in the region, there is a war, etc. So tricky!

What @RedTagAlan said plus the US mid terms are coming up!

Why is it that you comment on the possibility of committing war crimes only when it comes to Iran? This whole US/Israel instigated war is illegal, against the UN charter (clearly something to be ignored if you are the US), these countries have committed multiple war, despicable crimes. They assassinated multiple leaders, they have attacked schools, hospitals, most notably Minab. Yet you comment on possible, future war crimes that Iran might commit?! You don't seem to want to understand how Iran might feel at all. For me, it's nothing to do with a special expertise on 'the Iranian mindset'. It's listening to people who have knowledge (open to all of us on the www) and a basic understanding of human psychology and behaviour.

How do you know that 'a deal' is what Trump wants?
He literally signed the MOU and then broke it within a couple of weeks. He is sending a war ship and troops to the region. He is still making genocidal comments, even at the UN! Iran did actually offer him 'a deal' just last week and he apparently turned them down.
Think about it from Iran's perspective.

An excellent post.
-It shows the utter corruption of the 'elites', of which Trump takes the jackpot by some margin, as far as I can tell.
-The BS that people are fed about 'spreading democracy'. Many people still believe this, as can be seen on this board and many other places in the West.
-The fact that these wars is a major cause of the immigration which the same (mainly right wing who are PRO WAR) folk are dead against. I do not think that most of the 'we hate immigrants' people (I know it is far more nuanced in reality) are mentally capable of connecting the two things. 🤔

As an aside, @BelleHathor , I don't know if you have seen this video. It's worth watching the last couple of minutes even if you don't have time for the rest. Very amusing

I agree that some, brighter folks have twigged that Trump has told them endless lies and is not to be trusted on the AFirst thing but there are many, many others who continue to support him. Perhaps they don't care as they think the war is so far off that it won't affect them and they won't get the refugees-that will be Europe. I'm sure they will be the very first to moan about the $$ of diesel though.

In case anyone isn't sure, yes, the whole thing makes me very angry and sad because 'we' continue to repeat the same stupid, destructive, appalling acts again and again and many justify them and are not capable of seeing what is actually going on. This has all happened before.

One recommendation for @Twiglets1 and @Newbutoldfather. I expect @BelleHathor is familiar with him as he appears on Mario N's show v regularly.
Have a look at Prof Robert Pape's escalation trap. He's an American professor, btw, nothing to do with Iran, in case you are concerned about a pro Iran bias. He's frequently interviewed on YT and is on X and has a substack (which I haven't had time to read but explains his views in more detail).

This is a strange one. Very strange.

US removes all Air Force bombers from UK base following new threat | CNN Politics

If it is 4d chess, who is playing it ? Need an extra layer or 2 of Bacofoil on the hat to think about this.

I find it normal to sympathise with a country whose infrastructure is being attacked by their neighbour- who they are not at war with - yes.

Obviously people feel how they feel but it’s harsh in my opinion to accuse a country of “crocodile tears” if they are having war crimes committed against them.

I wouldn’t say Iran cry crocodile tears when their infrastructure gets hit by the US. It’s a serious thing not something to brush off lightly.

@RedTagAlan Yes, I saw that too and wondered why it should be so. The Fairford incident is a lot more important than it first appeared and this move points to US vulnerablility on the base.

Five British Nationals and a British- Iranian national have been arrested on suspicion of terrorism offences.

The quick withdrawal of the bombers followed new threats the US military received regarding an Iran-backed plot to target the facility, two US officials told the New York Times.

The need to move the bombers was so urgent that some of the planes were ordered into the air while refuelling aircraft were still being scrambled.

Source: The Telegraph.

So much for not giving into the "terrorists".

And yup, I used inverted commas there. Because from an objective point of view, Israel is attacking Lebanon. Because Israel say attacks are being launched from there. But if other countries attack another country where attacks are being launched from, then that is seen as a terrorist act. An irrational act even.

There does seem to be an inconsistency going on here.

The IRGC are terrorists. Regardless of whether people consider the Israel government to be terrorists too in their own mind.

Has there ever been a time in history when propaganda has been used so successfully to re-write events irt? Ironically, the internet accelerates the spread of both information and disinformation thereby necessitating an even higher level of rigorous analysis and discernment - which is not always present in consumers.

Hints of a MN favourite, DARVO, as Israeli foreign policy.

Do you not understand the points made by both @trumpredcard and @BelleHathor? I guess you haven't understood my point about double standards in relation to war crimes either....