US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

Reported by whom that the transponder was off? CNN by any chance?

The IRGC themselves mention nothing about the transponder being off, saying only that they hit the Cyprus-flagged container ship because “no vessel will be permitted to transit.”

Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed until further notice,’ says Iran

Iran struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship leading to “significant engine room damage” and a missing civilian crew member, the US military said early on Sunday morning.

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre, the ship was travelling on a route that hugs the coast of Oman, a passage that avoids Iran’s territorial waters.

The ship’s crew abandoned the vessel as it was ablaze, the centre said.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said multiple vessels “disregarded our warnings and instructions to correct their course and proceed along the approved route.” One of them “was struck by a warning shot and brought to a stop.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/12/iran-us-war-latest-gulf-strikes-trump-peace-talks-khamenei/

The missing civilian crew member is Indian.

The Indian foreign minister said in a statement that, “Of the 11 Indian nationals on board, 10 have been rescued so far”.

They added that attacks on commercial shipping in the region were “deeply worrisome”.

“The targeting of commercial shipping and civilian infrastructure in the region must end” it said.

Centcom said that after strikes on 300 targets in the week, it had seriously degraded Iran's ability to interfere with shipping in the region.

What a difference words make. "Seriously degraded" means nada when Iran continues to demonstrate its capability to 'interfere' with shipping that does not conform to its understanding on who manages the Strait.

From the Times:

“It has also turned personal. Trump says that the Iranians are plotting to assassinate him. In his most visceral language to date on the issue, last week he described the Iranian people as “scum”. In turn, the new Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had vowed to satisfy a “demand of the nation” and avenge his slain father.
Yet for all the fire and fury, those around Trump are split on what his next move will be — and whether there are any good options left. Operation Epic Fury is now being referred to as Operation Epic Fail in Washington.
“It just keeps going,” complained one figure close to the administration.”

“As Trump grows frustrated with the Iranians, even his loyalists are sceptical he has the stomach to return to full blown war. When he signed the peace deal last month, he said he wanted to avoid a similar fate to the depression-era president Herbert Hoover, who never escaped being held responsible for the nation’s downward turn. Voters and his party want gas prices down ahead of the mid-terms.
The Maga base has no appetite for escalation. This week, the podcaster Joe Rogan, credited for helping Trump win over young men in the 2024 election, said that Trump may have already handed the Democrats a win having “f*ed it up by going to Iran”. Defence figures fear a long, messy conflict dominated by strikes but lacking the escalation needed to change the situation on the ground in Iran.”

“The latest outbreak of the conflict was sparked by the Iranians firing at ships on the Strait of Hormuz that had gone down the Oman side of the shipping lane. The White House responded with a series of strikes hours later, leading to a tit-for-tat that, experts believe, is largely Tehran’s fault.
“This is about political dysfunction on the Iranian side,” a Middle East diplomat said. “The Iranian leadership were fine with the agreement when the ships were shot at”. Since then, Tehran has blamed an “errant” group of hardliners for opening fire on the Strait. Trump has called for a formal apology and pledged more pain from the US if it doesn’t materialise.
This weekend, the different groups will meet in Oman in talks that will be attended by the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. In a sign of the shifting power balance, the idea is that Oman would negotiate with Iran before bringing the US side in. Trump is still deferring to his peace envoy and real estate broker Steve Witkoff to deal with the Iranians. Neither he nor Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, will be present for the discussions.”

However, in a sign that the situation could deteriorate further, on Saturday there were reports that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had fired at — and hit — a merchant ship on the strait. Given the Americans wanted an apology, this is being read as an escalation.

“Even if the events of last week prove to all be an unfortunate misunderstanding, they still speak to the memorandum’s shortcomings. The 14-point document was already a difficult pill for more hawkish Republicans to swallow. They felt it gave too much to the Iranians in terms of seemingly granting Tehran control of the Strait, unfreezing billions in assets and unlocking a multi-billion postwar economic and reconstruction fund.
It sought to leave the toughest issues, namely what to do with Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, to a 60-day negotiation window. Now fear is rising over whether these issues will ever be resolved. US officials are particularly downbeat about agreeing a nuclear deal for ending and disposing of key parts of Tehran’s nuclear programme, which was touted as one of the main reasons to start the conflict in the first place.”

“In DC, the talk is that the memorandum won’t stand, leaving Trump stuck. He can escalate and double down on economic pain in the hope of securing an agreement that benefits America. He can pursue a new memorandum by other means. Or, he can accept that this endeavour has gone horribly wrong, cut his losses and accept a deal that lowers the temperature in the Middle East but leaves Iran in a position of strength.
How fixated Trump remains on Iran and the wider region could well hinge on his performance in the November mid-terms, Republican sources and defence figures believe. Polling trends suggest that Trump is expected to lose the House — and possibly the Senate, too. If Democrats reclaim control in Congress Trump will find it harder to deliver domestic policy, forcing him to turn his focus abroad -— as many departing presidents do in their final years — as he seeks to cement his legacy. That could mean pressing ahead with Iran, returning to his efforts to buy Greenland or attempting to secure peace in Ukraine, something he promised he would do just 24 hours after entering the White House.
“You’re going to have a really angry, frustrated guy ”

Excerpt From
“Opinion: Even loyalists think Trump is running out of options on Iran”
The Times and The Sunday Times
https://apple.news/AjznBQsTTQkyG7f8UTGikcA
This material may be protected by copyright.

They do continue to do that and they also continue to get no sanctions relief and no billions in investment money.

Maybe both sides secretly want to postpone the peace deal indefinitely ( they act like they do) in which case win-win.

Ahh. So we have gone from regime change/no nukes/ democracy, end of theocracy, no missiles etc being the aim, to now an endless war is a win-win.

Good to see people willing to change their mind.

Have we? I’m just throwing around ideas like you do.

@JadeHare

That Times article you posted. This line here. "They felt it gave too much to the Iranians in terms of seemingly granting Tehran control of the Strait, unfreezing billions in assets and unlocking a multi-billion postwar economic and reconstruction fund."

But earlier the article has this line :"The White House responded with a series of strikes hours later, leading to a tit-for-tat that, experts believe, is largely Tehran’s fault."

These experts appear to be missing a few dots here. So it's Iran's fault for firing on ships bypassing the official lanes, but the US republicans felt the MOU seemingly gave Iran control of the strait.

Can't one of these republicans phone Trump and tell him what they think the MOU says ?

Now I am not keen on arguments from majority, but surely in this case an argument from majority beats the WH argument from authority.

Here's a link to the full article quoted up thread.
https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/katy-balls-iran-war-trump-maga-peace-ceasefire-rf0htmz7p

and an archive copy.
https://archive.ph/UBN7M

Now I am not keen on arguments from majority, but surely in this case an argument from majority beats the WH argument from authority.

You're making too much sense and forgetting Trump's policy in governing the USA.
L'Etat, c'est moi and no one in his party appears to have the guts to go against him atm.

From your source:

The latest outbreak of the conflict was sparked by the Iranians firing at ships on the Strait of Hormuz that had gone down the Oman side of the shipping lane. The White House responded with a series of strikes hours later, leading to a tit-for-tat that, experts believe, is largely Tehran’s fault.

“This is about political dysfunction on the Iranian side,” a Middle East diplomat said. “The Iranian leadership were fine with the agreement when the ships were shot at”. Since then, Tehran has blamed an “errant” group of hardliners for opening fire on the Strait.

I wonder what the current price for gas is at Trump's 25 Freedom gasoline stations.

Yes. For a Republican who is supposed to be pro free market, he sure does a lot of socialist/communist sort of things, whole saying all the time how communism/ socialism is really bad. It's almost as if he does not know anything about it.

It's something I post about on another thread.

Another poster asked how folk know when a ship has it's AIS off. To that poster, it is public domain information. Loads of software out there to use to track ships and record their movement. So when a ship is reported as hit, it's easy for anyone to see if it has it's transponder on or off. Here is one:

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

These do not work that great for me because of my location, but if you are in the free world, it's pretty much all here.

The latest CNN feed update has this :

“The Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway,” CENTCOM wrote in a post on X, adding: “US forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations.”
“Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing,” it continued.

This is an odd one. Because I fully support freedom of navigation, and I totally support the concept of freedom of navigation exercises, such as the UK sailing through the South China Sea. The PRC will moan and complain, but it is freedom of navigation, same as when the PRC PLAN Navy sails through the English Channel.

But this bit of CENTCOMs post. "arbitrary declarations.". Hmm, is that not what you are doing ?

Now, if the PRC invades Taiwan and a war breaks out. Do I think there is still freedom of navigation through the Taiwan Strait ? Nah. Because there would be a state of war going on.

And we can go to UNCLOS. Article 41 sub sections 4 and 5:

4. Before designating or substituting sea lanes or prescribing or substituting traffic separation schemes, States bordering straits shall refer proposals to the competent international organization with a view to their adoption. The organization may adopt only such sea lanes and traffic separation schemes as may be agreed with the States bordering the straits, after which the States may designate, prescribe or substitute them.

5. In respect of a strait where sea lanes or traffic separation schemes through the waters of two or more States bordering the strait are being proposed, the States concerned shall cooperate in formulating proposals in consultation with the competent international organization.

The USA is not a bordering state to the SoH. And this is the whole spirit of UNCLOS. That land has dominion over the sea. You can't claim a sea unless you have land there.

However, I have just spotted article 45-2

2. There shall be no suspension of innocent passage through such straits.

And that is referring to straits that have no alternate routes. And that applies to the SoH.

However, UNCLOS does not mention war. And basically, as per UNCLOS, the US CENTCOM has no control over the strait. It can't, because it has no land there. For sure, in peacetime it can do freedom of navigation, as in innocent passage.

But is it innocent passage when one side on a war is directing ships through a strait within pea shooter range of the enemy coast. I would say no.

But I am happy to be persuaded otherwise.

Re MV GFS Galaxy

Iranian state media, citing the IRGC Navy, said it had fired a warning shot at a vessel that had deactivated its tracking system and strayed from an approved route, and that the vessel stopped after the warning

Interestingly, Centcom has chosen to comment only the damage and casualty, while ignoring the transponder status issue.

But it looks like several vessels had been attempting to move through on an unauthorized route on the Omani side, and ignored warnings from Iran to correct course. So a bit of bad luck for the Galaxy then, as it coud have been any other vessel doing the same thing.

But is it innocent passage when one side on a war is directing ships through a strait within pea shooter range of the enemy coast. I would say no.
But I am happy to be persuaded otherwise.

Let's start with the Latin word for war...

Bellum ?

No idea. Can you explain ?

Anyway, here is UNCLOS article 45 in full.

"Article 45

Innocent passage 1. The regime of innocent passage, in accordance with Part II, section 3, shall apply in straits used for international navigation:
(a) excluded from the application of the regime of transit passage under article 38, paragraph 1; or
(b) between a part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and the territorial sea of a foreign State.

2. There shall be no suspension of innocent passage through such straits. "

So yup. "Innocent passage" is doing a lot of work here. Because when the US had their blockade going on, they did not appear to consider any ship going to an Iranian port as "innocent". No matter where it was. And same with the warship it sunk in the Indian Ocean. Or when it killed Indian sailors in the Gulf of Oman.

So using US logic, why should Iran consider that US guided/facilitated/escorted ships as being "innocent" ?

It really is one rule for you, another for me. As you posted above.

NBC News Meet the Press

WELKER: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. CENTCOM says it's open. Which is it?

TRUMP: It's open, and I don't want to talk about because I want to honor the life of Lindsey Graham, so I don't want to talk about it. I told you that before the call.

(eta correct source)

Trump is also talking to Jake Tapper on "State of the Union". And I see the CNN feed is changing a bit.

"Iran’s authority tasked with overseeing a new protocol for transits through the waterway said today that the passage of vessels is “not possible,” but Trump told CNN “it’s open as far as we’re concerned.”"

So the journalists are starting to examine the MOU The MOU that Trump signed and has now torn up.

“These people, there’s something wrong with them,” Trump told CNN’s Jake Tapper during a morning interview on the State of the Union show.

“We had a deal with them yesterday,” he said. “They were giving up everything, and then all of the sudden, two hours after that, they hit a ship with a drone.”

Is he not aware his speech to the G7, where he heralded this MOU, is a matter of public record ?

This was Jake Tapper State of the Nation, note the 'as far as we're concerned'

TAPPER: Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Is that true?

TRUMP: It's open as far as we're concerned. Don't talk about it. Talk about the reason you asked me to speak.

And from the Guardian live

On Sunday, Mohsen Rezaee, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was quoted in state media as saying: “This strategic passage is more important than dozens of atomic bombs, and the Islamic Republic of Iran will protect it.”

Cross post there Alan

I think it is worth posting here, as reference for fellow posters, what the JMCI is. Because CENTCOM mentions it , as does the press. And thankfully, I found the JMIC site is not blocked for me. Here it is:

Joint Maritime Information Center – Combined Maritime Forces

From the CNN feed I posted above:" Earlier today, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), which is overseen by the US Navy,..."

To tie this in with UNCLOS, I do not think this this group qualify as a "competent international organization with a view to their adoption"

As per UNCLOS. Article 41 sub sections 4 I posted above.

Nope, that is a branch of the US military. So CENTCOM are using a circular argument. They use JMIC as though it was independent, but no, it is part of them. This is typical of what authoritarian governments do.

Wanting this war for decades? What a coincidence then this war started October 8th.

28th February, Trump war day 134