US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

[JadeHare]

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

Iran’s top military command Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters has said in a statement that “the cessation of armed forces operations is hereby announced”.

But they have warned in the same statement that if the attacks continue, “including in southern Lebanon,” Iran will respond “more severe and forceful than before".

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/06/08/freedom-of-navigation-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-eu-lists-two-individuals-and-one-entity/

Israel is stopping attacks on Iran “at Trump’s request” reports Israel’s channel 12 news outlet.

The report adds that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon will continue if Hezbollah attacks Israel.

Source: BBC.

Fingers crossed that both sides stick to it

Yup … doesn’t seem that likely but we can only hope.

Israel has just attacked Beirut - so that didn't last long - less than an hour

Sorry - attack was on southern Lebanon not Beirut - but point stands about the volatility of the situation

On Trump saying Iran was down to 10 or 15% of their missile stocks, without him saying % of what, he could be correct, or wrong.

CNN has a photo on it's feed of a downed Iranian missile, broken at a connecting ring, and I instantly thought that the ring looked a pressed part. I zoomed in, but resolution not good enough. I decided it was machined after all, but it did have features that suggest pressed.

If a pressed part, that suggests mass manufacture. If machined, lower volume.

I mention it because if the Engineers have a collection of downed missiles, it will be pretty easy to spot if the manufacturing process is strained. Is the machining rougher, switched from CNC to manual machine tools etc. How much different are the early missiles from those fired now.

But of course, if the missiles downed today are exactly the same as the earlier ones, it means original stock, or production not strained.

So I reckon when Trump said his 15% or whatever, it is likely to have been evaluated by the boffins. % of what though, no idea.

Or he could have just made it up.

Clearly Netanyahu isn’t taking much notice of Trump

this from Al Jazeera

‘ US President Donald Trump insisted late on Sunday night that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would ultimately have to accept any agreement negotiated between Washington and Tehran because the US president “calls the shots”.
“He won’t have any choice,” Trump told the Financial Times in a telephone interview. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”

he’s delusional

Why is it clear that Netanyahu isn’t taking much notice of Trump? Israel has stopped attacking Iran I believe.

Although Israel have said consistently that they won’t stop attacking Hezbollah while Hezbollah continue to attack Israel. I don’t think Trump will be able to stop that ( could be wrong) because Israel always responds strongly to attacks.

More on this … the Telegraph report that the move marked the first time the bloc has used new powers to sanction Iran for restricting freedom of navigation.

The EU said in a written statement that it had added the Hormozgan Provincial Command of the IRGC Navy to its sanctions list.

@Efacsen post upthread and the news at the time
Israel has just attacked southern Lebanon

@Twiglets1 , I posted the officilal EU press release in reply to your original post as not everyone has access to the Telegraph

In the past few minutes, Israel's military spokesman Avichay Adraee has warned residents in the ancient city of Tyre, in southern Lebanon, to evacuate.

What a weak fool Trump looks like, he was warned months ago by Tucker Carlson that he was just being used by Netanyahu, the Pro Israel donors and Senators like Lindsay Graham and he would be defied then dumped when he was no longer of any use.

The economic effects of this war of choice he entered for Netanyahu have tanked Trump’s midterm election chances. He has destroyed America's political capital and soft influence for nothing.

The timeline of attacks and agreements overlaps so much it’s getting very confusing

Was this announcement after Israel last agreed to stop bombing people
or before ?

@DrPrunesqualer Yes I know but Lebanon is not Iran.

Israel has stopped attacking Iran after phone call with Trump.

Also Iran has stopped attacking Israel.

So far anyway. It’s hard to keep track.

Israel did not agree to stop bombing “people”.

Specifically they agreed to stop attacking Iran (while Iran also is resuming a ceasefire with Israel).

They have said they won’t stop attacking Hezbollah until Hezbollah stop attacking them.

It looked like it was overlapping Netanyahu's statement but maybe that was the reporting timing?

The timeline was - I think

Israel said they would continue to attack Iran for a few more days or longer

Israel said that they would stop attacking Iran [after Trump spoke to Netanyahu] but made no commitment to stop fighting in Lebanon

Iran said they would stop attacking Israel unless Israel attacked Hezbollah

Less than an hour later Israel attacked Hezbollah in southern Lebanon

That's about the correct timeline, remembering that Lebanon (including the South and all other fronts) was part of the original April ceasefire.

Israel violated this from the beginning, any attempt by Netanyahu to try and separate it now or anyone else to restrict it to just being between Iran and Israel is misinformation.

Furthermore, Iran has stated recently that they regard any attack on any front a violation.

Yes this is how I’ve read it from the start

Any attacks on Lebanon by Israel is a violation of the original ceasefire

Am I correct in remembering that at one point Iran wanted Gaza included ?

I wish I’d kept notes tbh

I seem to remember from the 15 point/10 point back and forth between America and Iran, the ceasefire was meant to be on all fronts, which could be read to include Gaza. That is what Iranians such as Professor Marandi have been saying in numerous interviews. Basically Netanyahu needs to take the IDF back into the "official" borders of Israel and stop the killing everywhere.

Absolutely
I can’t see any peace whilst Israel occupies the sovereign land of another and this is the widely held view of human rights organisations and, of course, it aligns with many UN resolutions

Yup, that goes to the heart of the problem, the leeway that Israel has been allowed since it's foundation to disregard International Law and violate the Sovereignty of other countries has to be reigned in or there will be no peace.

Many more countries in the region are realising that it's Israel inability to stay within it's border that is a destabilising factor and that has brought the region close to absolute disaster.