US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

[JadeHare]

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

And from the Independent:

“The most serious obstacle to a more lasting peace remains Benjamin Netanyahu. In his zero-sum world view, a weaker Iran is necessarily a safer Israel, and that is why he encouraged – or persuaded – the Trump administration to launch Operation Epic Fury, just as he did in getting Operation Midnight Hammer underway a year ago.
To the now obvious irritation of the US president, Mr Netanyahu is continuing his invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon, designed to neutralise Hezbollah, as well as apparently permitting more illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank, even as Mr Trump wants out.
The president seems not to be able to stop his troublesome friend and ally from going on and on with his military operations, but he shouldn’t be surprised. Mr Netanyahu sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat to (nuclear-armed) Israel, and, as such, it will require maximum pressure from the White House to prevent him from continually trying to scupper the MoU and a permanent ceasefire. ”

Excerpt From
“Voices: America has lost its war with Iran”
Editorial
The Independent
https://apple.news/AybRYIleBTgKb81V3wHzXyw
This material may be protected by copyright.

Lots of positives, for those who see Iran not developing nuclear weapons as a positive. Their enriched uranium will be destroyed and they will have to demonstrate a commitment to not building nuclear weapons, in return for money that will be good for the Iranian economy and for the Iranian people:

Technical talks on Iran's nuclear programme are expected to begin this week... while any sanctions relief or release of assets will depend on Iran meeting commitments under the deal.

"what the MOU does is set up a framework whereby the Iranians get the benefits of the bargain by meeting their obligations under the bargain," Vance said.

In "paragraph one" of the document it is outlined that Iran will commit itself to "regional peace and stability", Vance said, which he added included stopping the funding of "terrorist organisations".

"Most importantly, they're going to have a verifiable commitment to not building a nuclear weapon," Vance said.

The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days, during which the sides will negotiate details of a final agreement.

Announcing the breakthrough on Sunday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose nation had been mediating, said it included "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon".

The US officials said that while Lebanon was covered by the ceasefire framework, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory was not a condition of the deal. Israel would retain the right to self defence, they added.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8mv6l6eezo

It’s worse than Obama’s deal - and fucked with the world economy.

Even if a final deal is agreed tomorrow the economic impact of the war will be felt far in to 2027 - and the UK won’t escape that.

From Reuters:

“Trump has said Iran must not be able to develop a nuclear weapon. While that is almost impossible to prevent completely, it can be made much more difficult with effective constraints.
That is what the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major powers did until Trump pulled the U.S. out of it in 2018. Iran retaliated by expanding its programme far beyond the deal's limits.
Any new deal will need to address these points:

• What to do with the most highly enriched uranium? Trump has said he wants it removed and shipped out or destroyed. Iran wants neither. A compromise may be to "downblend", or dilute, it. They would then have to agree by how much and at what enrichment level it can stay in the country. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday Iran had agreed in principle to downblend its highly enriched uranium.
• Some or no enrichment? The U.S. has at times demanded zero enrichment in Iran. Iran says it will not give up its right to enrich. If it is allowed to do so, up to what level, and how much of the product can Iran keep? The 2015 deal specified those, as well ”

Excerpt From
“Key issues the US and Iran must address in nuclear talks”
Francois Murphy
Reuters
https://apple.news/AYzpFC_J7RhGxmlu7BtOFaQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

Agreed.

Vance describes the MOU as "about a page and a half" and a "very general" document.

Jeremy Bowen

The war has been President Donald Trump's worst foreign policy blunder – so far.
It makes it harder for the United States to deter its enemies.
It has damaged its alliances with the oil-producing Arab monarchies of the Gulf, whose business model as islands of stability in the turbulence of the Middle East will take years to repair.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdr4x3vg347o

Yes
It’s definitely worse than Obamas deal
but
Israel has got what it wanted in part at least
Trump was well and truly hoodwinked

Doesn’t look like the Gulf states are going to align themselves with the US and Israel either.

From Reuters:

“The sharpest shock, however, is being felt in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, where the stability behind decades of economic growth has been sharply challenged. By this measure, they are the war's main losers: spectators to decisions that reshaped their security landscape, now left to absorb the fallout.
The deal, Gulf sources say, has already begun to reshape Gulf strategic thinking, eroding confidence in U.S. protection, entrenching Iran as an enduring regional force, and accelerating a shift toward accommodation rather than confrontation.
A senior Gulf government source put it bluntly: any de-escalation is positive, but the situation is unequivocally worse than before the war.”

“Now more and more Gulf rulers realise they cannot depend on the U.S., or Israel to deliver security or stability.”
That reassessment marks a deeper shift. Gulf states have long distrusted Iran but relied on U.S. power to contain it. Now, engagement with Tehran has already begun.
Gulf capitals have intensified contacts with Tehran lately, seeking economic and security understandings to reduce the risk of confrontation, regional sources say.
Before the war, the central regional question was the scope of Arab–Israeli normalisation, Gerges said. In its aftermath, the focus is shifting toward Gulf-Iran accommodation.
While Washington will remain an indispensable partner, regional analysts say the conflict is likely to accelerate a quiet but consequential realignment, with Gulf states diversifying defence ties and hedging against future shocks.”

Excerpt From
“Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war”
Samia Nakhoul
Reuters
https://apple.news/AqY2z5U2XQwC9tUNA_De0bg
This material may be protected by copyright.
Excerpt From
“Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war”
Samia Nakhoul
Reuters
https://apple.news/AqY2z5U2XQwC9tUNA_De0bg
This material may be protected by copyright.

Trump at the G7 summit on Lebanon ( AA news )

• The US president also noted he “suggested to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbollah"
• Trump says Israel's Netanyahu “has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon,” adding: “I'm not happy with way Israel has handled themselves... with Hezbollah”

Tehran says end of war in Lebanon ‘prerequisite’ for ending war with Iran

So no question Lebanon has been left out unless they are both lying and given we’ll all see the deal soon it would be stupid to

Heres another little ditty on Iran

• Speaking on the sidelines of G7 leaders' summit, Trump added: “I never cared about regime change” in Iran, adding: “We're dealing with people that I think are very rational people”

He never cared about regime change 🤣🤣

It looks as if the "investments" the Gulf states made in Trump never paid off.

And we got mocked for saying that from the start.

Trump on his Iran deal: “This agreement is about one thing: Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Never.

“The rest of it is irrelevant, frankly.”

Trump speaking about his Iran deal at G7.

“I’ll probably have a press conference and read it to you word by word, so that the press covers it accurately, because it’s a very important document,”

“I’ll go over the document with the media in a couple of days,”.

Later, he said :

“Yeah, I would. I never thought about sending it, never even thought about it, but I will. I will send it to Congress,”

“I like the idea. Send it to Congress, please.”

Obama's deal was a completed deal.

With this situation, we haven't even seen the signed copy of the Memorandum of Understanding yet and the peace deal won't be fully negotiated until around 60 days after that.

So you must be able to see into the future to be confident that this deal is definitely worse than Obama's deal.

I mean - it may turn out to be worse, who knows. But we don't know at this stage.

Trump: We are not investing any money in Iran

Donald Trump says the United States is not investing any money in Iran amid reports that it could access a $300bn (£220bn) reconstruction fund if it gives up its uranium stockpile.

Speaking at the G7 alongside Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Than, the Emir of Qatar, the US president said America would not hand Tehran any financial support in return for signing the deal to end the war.

“We are not investing any money in Iran, by the way. That rumour got out there yesterday was ridiculous. We have the right to go in some day and if I want to do something, or somebody wants to do something, but we are not investing any money,” he said.

The United States has framed any sanctions relief as “performance-based”, meaning Tehran will receive relief only as it meets each demand of the memorandum of understanding, which Mr Trump and JD Vance, the vice president, signed electronically on Monday.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/16/g7-summit-latest-news-trump-ukraine-iran-war-peace-deal/#1781605284062

This marks the first day of the Memorandum of Understanding and people return to their ‘homes’ in Lebanon

Families return to shattered towns as fragile ceasefire holds in Lebanon
Southern Lebanon’s displaced face dire conditions as they return to salvaged belongings amid ceasefire uncertainties.

By Al Jazeera Staff, AP and Reuters
Published On 16 Jun 202616 Jun 2026

Forcibly displaced families are returning to shattered towns and villages in southern Lebanon after the initial announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

Months of cross-border fire and air raids have levelled homes, shops and public buildings, leaving some neighbourhoods barely recognisable. As word of the ceasefire filtered through, families who had been sheltering with relatives, in schools or in crowded apartments in safer areas, began making the journey back to see what remains of their property.

Many are finding collapsed roofs, burned-out cars and rooms stripped of doors and windows. With basic services still disrupted and the security situation uncertain, some residents are choosing to stay only long enough to salvage documents, clothing and household items before leaving again. Others, with nowhere else to go, are attempting to restart their lives amid the destruction.

Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 3,798 people since March 2, according to the Ministry of Public Health. They have also forcibly displaced about 1.2 million people’

Lets hope this holds for everyones sake !

It was never about regime change

The current Iranian leadership are very rational people. They are nice to deal with, they are strong and smart people. They are not radicalised, and they are looking to help their country."

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl

Watching him live on Sky as he speaks at G7.

He is rambling bad.

I have seen bits, it's a madman's rant.

He sort of admitted hitting the school, but redirected it to Hegseth. He says he can issue the report on the school tomorrow.

He says Syria can deal with Hezbollah. CNN just said Lebanon say no to that.

Now it is egg prices.

But basically, Iran gets $300 billion of their money released to them, because the war damage is a $trillion. And Iran need money to re-arm with anti-aircraft stuff.

I am hoping a full transcript is published.

Here is the clip of that comment

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3moirtyowq32s

NYT: Can you now say whether you will hold anyone in your administration accountable for the strike on a school that killed more than 100 children?

TRUMP: No. It's such a strange question to be asked. It's a long time ago. Mistakes are made. I would ask Pete Hegseth that question.

The $300 billion is not just release of Iranian money but active investment by countries in Iran- 50% private equity apparently

https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/beyond-the-ceasefire-the-300-billion-fund-at-the-heart-of-the-us-iran-peace-deal-article-154649883

I think this will further entrench current regime but may conversely make the region safer as it supports Iran to be more integrated.

No wonder some in Israel pissed off:

”The deal manifestly empowers and finances a mass-murdering regime. It elevates the Islamic Republic to a regional powerhouse. It abandons the Iranian people to whom Trump promised that help was on its way.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trumps-deal-is-a-catastrophic-capitulation-to-irans-aggressors-leaves-israel-vulnerable-and-constrained/

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/trump-war-iran-big-failure_n_6a3044dae4b07679090ec9e6