US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

No I think that's a valid point about missiles maybe taking time to get to target hence arriving after the ceasefire.

An update to this which is that Netanyahu’s office has said overnight that as far as they are concerned, the two week ceasefire in Iran does not include Lebanon.

An immediate problem for the negotiators to attempt to fix.

Don’t people make money out of financial chaos? Not Joan soaps like me obviously but other people. And oil companies don’t loose out and governments who tax oil will make a larger vat amount.

So people have and will continue to make money out of this, as apparently oil prices will continue to rise for the next couple of months even with the strait open according to what I’m reading.

I'm not confident that a ceasefire will hold for two weeks. Israel's not on board (they're preparing to launch attacks on Tyre), Trump is salivating over 'big money to be made', and nothing has changed for the beleagured people of Iran.

The only winner here is Pakistan, for getting both parties to the table, but I'm now hearing about China's part in it too.
Oh, and all the people who made money betting on the stock market.

Don’t think GCC countries will accept tolls on the strait, it’s an international body of water, Iran doesn’t own it and are explicitly threatening to take ownership of it. Big sticking point.

On how Trump talks, he talks exactly like them so I wouldn’t upset about it. Anyone who’s listened to an arab or iranian authoritarian in full hitlerian rant will know this. If you regularly call for death on other countries then this language is right up your street.

Also hard to see how anything in Irans demands leaves room for Trump to claim a victory.

Saying that, he is behaving like he has brought about world peace atm instead of recognising the reality that he has made things significantly worse for the world in the last 5/6 weeks.

I wonder what Israel will do with all of this? It seems the ceasefire has been made above Netanyahu's head?

Someone made the point that even if it did include lebanon it just gives the Israelis time to consolidate their gains. Theres absolutely no mention of a withdrawal and that wouldn’t be accepted by the Israelis anyway.

I do wonder why america has agreed to this, time for ships to pass through the strait, yes, time for the GCC to get themselves together, possibly, I heard a suggestion that some of the GCC countries are considering acting offensively, I can imagine none of them want an IRCG controlled Iran as neighbours full stop.

Control of the strait will probably be a red line for most GCC countries, it’s basically a protection racket.

Yeah I’m not so sure about it. Neither america or Israel needed a ceasefire as such. They aren’t running out of bombs. Think something else is going on. God knows what. The world does need the strait open though.

X posts from Netanyahu's office:

Israel supports President Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the US, Israel and countries in the region.

Israel also supports the US effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran's Arab neighbors and the world.

The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals, shares by the US, Israel and Israel's regional allies, in the upcoming negotiations. The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/2041714153367216362

My guess it that Iran will have to accept that the 2 week ceasefire does not include Lebanon as far as Israel is concerned - they never agreed to it after all.

But stopping the attacks in Lebanon will be a feature of the permanent ceasefire deal. Assuming one gets done, which seems likely as both sides now appear to want to do a deal rather than continue the war.

Lebanon isn't part of the deal. I imagine they need their own deal?

Thanks for updating with this news @Twiglets1 despite denials from Iran they must have been negotiating behind the scenes.

I agree.

I think Iran were always negotiating behind the scenes via mediators which gave them plausible deniability.

Yes, possibly Lebanon and Israel will need to create their own deal. Or maybe it will be written into the final deal between the US and Iran in a fortnight or whenever that Lebanon will be protected from future attacks too, if Netanyahu will agree to that.

The US could probably make Israel do it if they really want to seeing as Israel does need US support, time will tell.

anyone with insider knowledge of the Whitrhouse would be able to make huge amounts of money by effectively betting for or against a rising or falling market.

For example, if you know that a ceasefire is about to be announced, you would short the market - effectively selling off oil and then buying it back again when the price falls on the announcement of the ceasefire. By the magic of finance, you don’t actually need to own the oil to do this - you can basically sell it before you’ve bought it, then buy it at the lower price with the proceeds of the “sale” and complete delivery. Of course at no point do you actually see, handle or deliver any physical oil.

This has been happening on a massive scale as it seems that in the US insider trading laws do not apply to politicians or their family and friends - Trump and his family will have made billions out of this war.

So depressing.

It’s on the list of demands so it’s not hidden anymore.

I wonder if other international leaders will have a view on it, GCC probably feel more potentially at risk. Then the toll booth situation, less so than nuclear issue but still.

Russia have had their sanctions lowered so they’ve definitely benefited from the war.

Good news overall
but not a complete ceasefire by Israel

‘While the Israeli military said it will push on with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, sources told Reuters that Hezbollah has halted its attacks against northern Israel and on Israeli troops.

Three Lebanese sources close to the group told the news agency that Hezbollah is likely to issue a statement outlining its formal position on the US-Iran ceasefire and on Israel’s assertion that Lebanon is not included.

The Lebanese army, meanwhile, has urged displaced families to delay their return home to the south of the country, warning of ongoing Israeli attacks.’
the Guardian

The status of Lebanon seems very ambiguous.
Israel needs to agree to the ceasefire deal in its entirety.
Netanyahus selective nature of the deal cannot be allowed to stand in the way of a full ceasefire.

.Israel strikes Tyre in Southern Lebanon
The Israeli military has struck the southern Lebanese city of Tyre after issuing forced evacuation notices to the residents of the region.
A short while ago the Israeli army also issued forced displacement orders to residents living in the Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry Laylaki, Hadath, Burj al-Barajneh, Tawhidat al-Ghadir and Shiyah neighbourhoods of Beirut.
Israel’s attacks and expanding invasion of Lebanon have displaced at least 1.2 million people across the country.

Israel has said the ceasefire between the US and Iran will not include Lebanon.
Why not !!!

The Qatar Foreign ministry affirmed “the importance of full adherence to the ceasefire announcement, to ensure the consolidation of calm and the preparation of conditions for dialogue”.

.Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif - who has been mediating talks - says Islamabad will host US and Iranian delegations on Friday "to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes".

I guess the ceasefire deal was just between Iran and the US, and Israel have their own ideas re Lebanon.

Hopefully with more time for intensive negotiations over the next 2 weeks or longer, Israel will come on board with agreeing a full ceasefire along with the US.

They are a completely separate country though - despite many people like to refer to them as though they were one country (US/Israel).

I agree
A US Iran deal is meaningless unless Israel is also at the table

Interestingly in the news earlier Pakistan stayed the Friday discussions were between the US and Iran

Here's the state of play from The Bulwark.

If you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”

And Trump wants to do a joint venture with Iran to collect tolls, because free money.

I had a wry smile when Leavitt tried to backpedal when asked if Iran had agreed to the joint venture. It's a idea, you silly people!