US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

Yes you would think that would be an obvious one to block, I agree.

I doubt the US does want to upset China ... will be interesting to see developments today re tankers in the S of H.

Is "only carrying Iranian oil" a stipulation of the blockade? I didn't realise that.

Also being reported in the Telegraph now that the Rich Starry has passed through the SoH. Apparently 2 other sanctioned vessels linked to Iran are also transitioning the waterway.

They point out that as the 3 vessels were not bound for Iranian ports, they are not covered by the blockade.

However, as the vessels are sanctioned, the US was expected to block their exit from the Gulf.

Mediators trying to bring sides back to table

According to Channel 12, citing American and mediation sources, Pakistan and its fellow mediators Egypt and Turkey are working to bridge gaps between Tehran and Washington, in an effort to either reach a deal to end the war or extend the current ceasefire.

A senior US official told the Israeli news outlet that contacts between Washington and Tehran are still ongoing and that some progress has been made in recent talks.

According to the report, the US softened its position during negotiations, proposing that Iran freeze uranium enrichment for 20 years instead of halting it for good.

Iran, in turn, agreed in principle to a freeze, but only for a shorter period of time, less than 10 years, according to officials.

According to The New York Times, Iran actually only proposed a five-year freeze on enrichment and US President Donald Trump rejected the proposal.

The US-proposed 20-year pause would be accompanied by sanctions relief, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The US was also said to have demanded that Iran export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but Tehran rejected that, instead agreeing to dilute the material inside Iran under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran has previously ruled out restrictions on its right to enrich uranium in what it insists is a civilian nuclear program. It has, however, enriched uranium to a point not needed for any civilian use, and has been said to be weeks away from breaking out to a bomb.

Despite the lack of a final agreement, Iranian officials reportedly believed the sides were nearing a deal and were caught off guard when Vance announced the talks were being abandoned.

The Channel 12 report also noted that Turkey is pushing to extend the current two-week ceasefire by an additional 45 to 60 days to allow more time to reach an agreement, with officials stressing that compromise will be required from both sides on key issues.

www.timesofisrael.com/vance-lot-of-progress-made-in-talks-toward-grand-deal-but-ball-in-irans-court/

Trump says US and Iran may hold talks in 'next two days'

Talks between the US and Iran could restart "in the next two days", Donald Trump has told the New York Post

"Something could be happening over the next two days, and we're more inclined to go there [Pakistan]," he tells the newspaper.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp9vm5ezxz4t

Interesting military commentator on andrew marr

We must stop iran.
Iran feeds Russia and vice versa and China weakening Iran weakens them.
A strong Iran weakens the west
And will end up with Taiwan taken

Wong thread

Does sound interesting!

Tracking data shows two Iran-linked ships change direction (14th April):

Ship tracking data analysed by BBC Verify suggests two Iran-linked vessels that travelled through the Strait of Hormuz after a US blockade was imposed have now changed direction and appear to be heading back.

The US-sanctioned tanker Rich Starry, which reports it is carrying cargo, sailed east from Sharjah in the UAE through the strait overnight, but has now changed direction, data shows.

Tracking data also shows a bulk carrier, Christianna, which crossed the strait on Monday after the blockade having called at Iran’s Bandar Iman Khomeini, has now changed direction.

The US's Central Command has claimed that six merchant vessels have been asked to turn around and have complied.

Another tanker, the US-sanctioned Elpis, passed the strait heading east on Tuesday and may have come from the Iranian port of Bushehr, tracking shows.
The data is still showing it stationary east of the strait. It is possible these ships have been broadcasting false position reports - known as “spoofing” - to disguise their locations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp9vm5ezxz4t

Signs of scramble from Iran-linked ships amid US blockade

IRAN-LINKED vessels that appeared poised to test the limits of the US blockade on Tuesday looked to be reconsidering as the US Navy forced a series of U-turns and ships stopped mid-voyage.

While the US has offered limited details regarding its intended enforcement strategy, US Central Command (Centcom) said in a social media post on Tuesday that six vessels have complied with directions from its forces to “to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman”.

It was not immediately clear to which vessels Centcom was referring, but at least one shadow fleet* tanker, Rich Starry made a U-turn in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of the day.

Rich Starry, a 36,031 dwt, combined chemical and oil tanker, is also sanctioned by the US and is falsely indicating its flagged with Malawi, rendering it essentially stateless.

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156893/Signs-of-scramble-from-Iran-linked-ships-amid-US-blockade

It is possible these ships have been broadcasting false position reports - known as “spoofing” - to disguise their locations.

Entirely possible, that's one of the downsides to some of the (maritime and aviation) tracking apps that are available to the general public and the media.

OTOH you'd expect the US Navy and others to have a more solid picture of what is going on through the use of other tech (e.g. primary radar, eyes on from the air or space) that doesn't use data transmitted from the vessel.

Al Jazeera US making a gamble with naval blockade on Iran

US Central Command has said that not a single ship has got through.

We were hearing differently yesterday – that one ship might have got through the blockade – but it seems that it only got through the Strait of Hormuz itself and is now stuck on the other side of it, in front of the blockade.

CENTCOM said they sent six vessels back the way they came, and that these ships went when they were ordered to.

The US has gathered a huge naval force to try and enforce this blockade, including more than a dozen warships, dozens of aircraft, and more than 10,000 personnel there, whether they be Marines or soldiers or airmen, who are all working together to keep this blockade going. That’s obviously quite an expense.
And it’s also a diplomatic expense.

A lot of Iranian oil, for example, goes towards China. That’s Iran’s biggest customer, and about a third of China’s domestic oil needs are met from Iran. So the longer this goes on, the more those needs aren’t going to be met.

Will that then make China put pressure on Iran to negotiate with the United States, or just anger that country? We don’t know yet.

So there is a gamble here. And there is also a sense that the longer that this blockade goes on, the more it makes things economically worse for the global energy market – but also for the United States.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/15/iran-war-live-trump-hints-at-second-round-of-talks-israel-pounds-lebanon

The US do have a more solid picture of what is going on via other methods, as you say.

And they are adamant that the US blockade has been fully implemented:

“A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East,” said Brad Cooper, Centcom commander, highlighting that it was achieved under 36 hours of President Donald Trump’s order.

“U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going in and out of Iran by sea.”

www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-navy-iran-seaborne-trade-oil-trump.html

Trump tells Sky News it’s “very possible” the US will strike a deal with Tehran by the end of the month.

Unfortunately, I don't trust a word out of Trump's mouth. Much more likely to be manipulation of the financial markets than anything else.

I understand that but both sides have indicated they are prepared to restart negotiations soon so that suggests logically that they both want a deal.

I think it’s clear to both sides now what they can hope to get out of the deal and what they can’t so it’s kinda pointless dragging it on much longer when it hurts both the US & Iran economically to keep it going.

If we look at the past, there have been times when the US "wanting a deal" was actually the US buying time to better position themselves militarily. Trump doesn't have a good track record of negotiating in good faith.

I see what you're saying, but wars are always expensive and yet they persist, sometimes for years.

Both sides will want to save face. I genuinely don't see a way Trump can pull back without it being perceived by all as a defeat. Where you and I differ is that I think Trump's ego will triumph over logic, which scares me.

I agree Trump doesn’t have a good track record but it’s in his own best interests now to do a deal as long as Iran are negotiating on the nuclear issue, which he has framed as his number one priority.

The US have softened their position to 20 years … Iran have offered 5 (or even up to 10 according to a source I read). If they can reach agreement on that, I feel other things will fall into place. The US have indicated they have offered financial inducements for Iran to reach agreement on the nuclear issues.

Yeah we do differ on that.

We agree that Trump has a huge ego. But to me, that ego means that he loves being seen as a deal maker. As long as both sides can frame the end of the war as a “win” (because both are committed to saving face), it seems logical to me that they both want to end it sooner rather than later.

I hope you are right, and both sides can move away from maximalist demands.

The rhetoric from the US side is that they were flexible on many things at the previous talks in Pakistan. I guess we will see if that was true or not when we see the details of the final deal.

Both sides will need to be pragmatic. Though I feel the US will be mocked more than Iran for conceding on certain demands.

Pakistani delegation arrives in Tehran for ceasefire talks

Pakistan’s army chief has arrived for talks in Tehran in the latest diplomatic move to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran after almost seven weeks of war.

The Pakistani military says the delegation includes Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country’s interior minister and other senior security officials. The group is “part of the ongoing mediation efforts,” the military says, but it gives no details.

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pakistani-delegation-arrives-in-tehran-for-ceasefire-talks/

The US is having discussions with Iran about a second round of negotiations, but nothing has been scheduled yet, according to the BBC today.