US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

Exactly.

From what we have heard, the US were willing to be flexible on many of Iran's other demands.

If the nuclear question is the main sticking point, it proves the lie that Iran only want nuclear for domestic purposes (pretty obvious lie anyway given how much they were enriching it).

Indeed.

If they don't want nuclear for weapons then surely its pretty easy to agree that point. Maybe the regime isn't honest

Ya think? 😂

US Central Command says a blockade of traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports will begin at 10:00 ET (15:00 BST) on Monday.

Centcom says the blockade will be enforced "impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas".

It says this includes all Iranian ports in the Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman.

"CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports," the military says.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt

Is this becoming an economic war? I think there may be an argument that concerted economic targeting of the regime will ultimately lead to regime change as an increasing proportion of the Iranian population realise poverty is going to increase under the regime including erstwwhile supporters. This may take some time but may lead to results. The internet ban on Iran can't last forever and eventually there will be forums for dissent.

The Iranians in my opinion are desperate for money for a stalling economy and surely oil sales account for a lot of revenue? Iranians may be awakening from war to an economic nightmare and how long can repressive governance be maintained?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604097047?source=share-link

Good article about the state of Iran's economy. You can't feed your people on enriched Uranium not so rain economic collapse. Maybe the economy really will be Iran's jndoinf. I for one aren't necessarily going to be heading for the Iranian stock exchange.

Maybe @mids2019

Talking of the internet ban - the blackout has lasted over 1000 hours and counting, I think they are on day 45 now? That must be terrible for business as well as on a personal level.

The same point about Iran's economy being made by other sources too including the Economist and Reuters:

The rial has plunged 8% against the dollar on the black market since the war started, according to the Economist. That’s after it lost 60% of its value in the months after the 12-day war against Israel last June.

Meanwhile, prices have risen by 6% during the current war, according to central bank data cited by the Economist. Prior to that, food inflation had soared to an annual rate of 64% in October, then accelerated further to 105% by February, vaulting overall inflation to 47.5% on the eve of war.

High inflation forced the central bank last month to issue its largest-ever currency denomination, the 10 million rial note, just a month after putting the 5 million rial into circulation.

But official data may be downplaying the severity of inflation. Residents of Tehran and other cities told Reuters that some prices have shot up around 40% since the war began six weeks ago.

An insider close to the Iranian establishment said officials view the economy as the country’s Achilles heel, the report said, with fears of renewed unrest looming over the government.

Failure to reach a ceasefire deal with the U.S. over the weekend dashed hopes for sanctions relief or the release of Iranian assets that were frozen overseas.

Without an influx of funds, authorities will have trouble making payroll, eventually threatening the regime’s ability to govern Iran, the insider told Reuters. The war has already strained its financial resources, as it has subsidized people who fled their homes while also paying for emergency repairs to infrastructure.

An Iranian official said the country “will face a disaster” if sanctions aren’t lifted as the biggest industrial plants that power the economy will take months or years to repair, according to Reuters.

On top of those economic woes, President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz could choke off Iran’s main source of money.

Revenue from oil exports were estimated to be worth at least $30 billion last year. And energy products accounted for roughly one-quarter of government revenue in 2023, according to the Washington Institute.

fortune.com/2026/04/12/iran-economy-crisis-inflation-prices-payroll-unemployment-currency-collapse/

"Without an influx of funds, authorities will have trouble making payroll, eventually threatening the regime’s ability to govern Iran, the insider told Reuters. The war has already strained its financial resources, as it has subsidized people who fled their homes while also paying for emergency repairs to infrastructure.

An Iranian official said the country “will face a disaster” if sanctions aren’t lifted as the biggest industrial plants that power the economy will take months or years to repair, according to Reuters."

Hopefully the regime might think of their people agree to abandon their nuclear weapon plan and move forward for the good of their country.

The regime doesn't think of their people though.

The talks are their chance to negotiate getting the sanctions listed that have been so disadvantageous to the Iranian economy. The US have strongly indicated that they were open to agreeing to almost all the regime's demands apart from on the nuclear issue.

But they are not taking the opportunity, preferring instead to focus on the right to develop nuclear weapon capability (at the same time denying that they want to enrich uranium beyond the 60% it is currently at to the 90% required for nuclear weapons).

For some reason a naval routes magazine popped up for me somewhere talking about shopping lanes 🤔. It was quite interesting however explaining the different lanes and how clinging to the opp coast may work and keep out of Iranian lanes giving anyone enough space to repel any attacks.

The eccomic side is very interesting.

Those in power won't be poor at all, they will want to keep milking the oil for as long as they can and the main way to keep power is with nukes.

So the US blockade has started and Trump has threatened on Truth Social that Iranian 'attack ships' will be eliminated if they approach.

"Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated - 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat," Trump writes.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea."

I'm not hopefully this won't escalate.

I very much hope it doesn't escalate.

I hope that it could quickly bring Iran back to the negotiating table and more amenable to giving the US what they want re what they are now calling their number one goal.

Obviously it would have been better if terms had been agreed earlier and if both sides weren't using the Straight of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. It could cause economic misery but at least no loss of life, as far as I am aware.

I probably view it as something like "no immediate loss of life". I think the impacts of less fertiliser, oil and gas being available world wide have the potential to cause enormous loss of life in the medium to long term, in possible worst case scenarios.

I wouldn't argue about the potential enormous harm, even loss of life it could cause in a worst case scenario.

Tbh I don't think the stalemate will last for long as neither side gains with the way things are at the moment. I could be wrong of course, that is just my opinion but I expect talks to resume before the ceasefire deadline and compromises found that both sides can agree to.

According to tracking data, the US appears to have turned away two vessels that were trying to pass the strait of Hormuz. These are the Rich Starry which was headed for China, and the Ostria.

Both tankers can carry oil and chemicals.

Vance told Fox News that “the ball is in the Iranian court because… (the US) … made our red lines very clear”.

He listed these red line demands as the US having control of Iran’s enriched uranium and a verification mechanism to ensure it does not declare a nuclear weapon in future.

But also this being reported:

"US-sanctioned tankers pass Strait of Hormuz despite blockade
The Reuters news agency is reporting that a Chinese tanker sanctioned by Washington has passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade on the waterway.
The agency cited data from the LSEG, MarineTraffic and Kpler firms.
It identified the tanker as Rich Starry and said it was the first to make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf since the blockade began. The tanker and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, were previously sanctioned by the US for dealing with Iran.
The tanker loaded its cargo at its last port of call in Hamriyah in the UAE.
Reuters also reported that another US-sanctioned tanker, Murlikishan, is heading into the strait today and is expected to load crude oil in Iraq on April 16. The vessel, formerly known as MKA, has transported Russian and Iranian oil, it reported."

So it looks like the tanker was initially turned back, but then got on through.

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156893/Sanctioned-Chinese-tanker-tests-US-Hormuz-blockade?utm_source=chatgpt.com

I was just about to comment that's strange that the Rich Starry seemed to both be turned away but also pass through the S of H depending on which report you read.

But your second post explains it - thank you.

You're welcome.

Still hard to make sense of. Surely if anything a tanker previously sanctioned by the US would be an obvious one to block?

I think the US is showing its hand as unwilling to upset China too much.

US rejects Iran’s plan to halt nuclear activity for five years

The White House has rejected Iran’s proposal to suspend uranium enrichment for five years.

The US has insisted that Iran pause nuclear activity for a minimum of 20 years, according to officials in Tehran and Washington.

The Iranian proposal was one of several suggestions submitted by both sides during peace talks in Pakistan that collapsed over the weekend, none of which were accepted.

Despite the first round of talks failing to reach a long-term agreement, officials have said a second round of high-level talks is a possibility, according to The New York Times.

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/14/iran-war-latest-news-trump-israel-strait-of-hormuz-peace/

I think it's too soon TBH. I reckon any interdictions will likely be in the Arabian sea. And we are talking slow tankers and big distances.

Also from that article : "It is not clear whether Rich Starry is carrying Iran-loaded oil"