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Conflict in the Middle East

US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

873 replies

Twiglets1 · 06/04/2026 10:19

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

  • A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
  • The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
  • The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
  • The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
  • The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
  • These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
  • The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

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RedTagAlan · 30/04/2026 13:03

GentleSheep · 30/04/2026 12:48

The Times of Israel also mentioning that Iran's having to improvise to find storage solutions. I am guessing you may not be able to see that article either @RedTagAlan !

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/reports-iran-improvising-oil-storage-and-export-routes-as-us-blockade-cuts-shipments/

Google AI gives me:

Overland and Alternative Export Efforts (April 2026):
Rail Shipments: Reports indicate Iran is exploring or has begun moving limited amounts of crude oil via rail through Central Asia (via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) to China to bypass the naval blockade. While this route offers a faster transit (12–15 days compared to 30–40 days by sea), it offers significantly lower volume capacity compared to tanker shipments.

Truck and Small Tanker Shipments: Reports suggest Iran is utilizing trucks and smaller, evasive tankers to move, at least, small quantities of refined products and crude.

Limited Impact: These overland methods are considered high-cost and low-volume, serving as a "Plan B" that cannot fully replace the high-volume maritime exports halted by the blockade.

I can get ToI thanks.

RedTagAlan · 30/04/2026 14:41

GentleSheep · 30/04/2026 12:48

The Times of Israel also mentioning that Iran's having to improvise to find storage solutions. I am guessing you may not be able to see that article either @RedTagAlan !

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/reports-iran-improvising-oil-storage-and-export-routes-as-us-blockade-cuts-shipments/

Google AI gives me:

Overland and Alternative Export Efforts (April 2026):
Rail Shipments: Reports indicate Iran is exploring or has begun moving limited amounts of crude oil via rail through Central Asia (via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) to China to bypass the naval blockade. While this route offers a faster transit (12–15 days compared to 30–40 days by sea), it offers significantly lower volume capacity compared to tanker shipments.

Truck and Small Tanker Shipments: Reports suggest Iran is utilizing trucks and smaller, evasive tankers to move, at least, small quantities of refined products and crude.

Limited Impact: These overland methods are considered high-cost and low-volume, serving as a "Plan B" that cannot fully replace the high-volume maritime exports halted by the blockade.

From that Times of Israel article :

"Goldman Sachs separately estimated last week that Iran has already cut as much as 2.5 million barrels per day of crude production, while other Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, have also been forced to scale back output since the war began on February 28."

So it's really a good thing the geology of the gulf is ok for starting and stopping the wells. Because all of the Gulf States are having to cut back.

GentleSheep · 30/04/2026 21:10

So Trump and Chancellor Merz of Germany have been having quite a spat over the past few days.

https://x.com/Osint613/status/2049839121464492365

Notice Merz is wearing German military uniform - he's been doing that for the past few days. Germany are saying they're going to be the biggest military - by 2039 they say they can challenge anyone in the world. They seem determined to be on a war footing. Ermmmmm???!!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyplg23l30o

Germany's net zero policy has been disastrous - take note Ed Milliband! They went from 17 nuclear reactors in 2011 to zero today. So now, producing less energy themselves, they are suffering due to the actions of the US. Self-inflicted to a large degree.

Merz wants to send his military force to the Strait of Hormuz to end the blockade and Trump opposes that.

US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire
US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire
US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire
Stirabout · 01/05/2026 00:34

Trump is looking to set up a coalition of countries to join the US is controlling the Strait

perhaps because the war has cost the US $25billion ! so far.

@GentleSheep you commented on Germany and now the US
may cut the number of troops in Germany, amid tensions with Friedrich Merz.

GentleSheep · 01/05/2026 08:10

Stirabout · 01/05/2026 00:34

Trump is looking to set up a coalition of countries to join the US is controlling the Strait

perhaps because the war has cost the US $25billion ! so far.

@GentleSheep you commented on Germany and now the US
may cut the number of troops in Germany, amid tensions with Friedrich Merz.

Very predictable, isn't he!

Notonthestairs · 01/05/2026 08:13

Stirabout · 01/05/2026 00:34

Trump is looking to set up a coalition of countries to join the US is controlling the Strait

perhaps because the war has cost the US $25billion ! so far.

@GentleSheep you commented on Germany and now the US
may cut the number of troops in Germany, amid tensions with Friedrich Merz.

I think $25 billion is an underestimate to be honest. And as pointed out on The Newsagents last night that sum doesn't include rebuilding US bases/equipment in the ME or the economic costs to the US.

TopPocketFind · 01/05/2026 13:53

Media reporting that Iran has submitted a new peace plan, just before the markets opened.

Stirabout · 01/05/2026 14:03

TopPocketFind · 01/05/2026 13:53

Media reporting that Iran has submitted a new peace plan, just before the markets opened.

Trump declared the war is over because of the ceasefire ( that isn’t actually a real ceasefire 🤷‍♀️)

BelleHathor · 01/05/2026 14:24

That's because technically Trump had to get congress to vote Yes to authorise the War within 60 days, this expires either today or tomorrow. Under the War Powers Act only congress can take America to War.

It's crazy how the media is so sneaky, the only "new" plan submitted by Iran is the one Aragachi travelled to discuss in Islamabad, Muscat and St Petersburg days ago.

ColdOut2025 · 01/05/2026 16:52

How anyone takes anythingsaud on a Friday seriously at this point baffles me

TopPocketFind · 02/05/2026 10:08

Trump is changing rhe laws regarding war. Something that is more akin to the IRGC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o

Trump tells Congress ceasefire means he does not need their approval for Iran war

Islandsofsand · 02/05/2026 12:35

Apparently Trump does not see blockade of Iranian ports as an act of war. Can’t see how this is reasonable at all, after all restrictions travel through the strait of Hormuz is clearly considered as such.

I can’t understand why the GOP lets him get away with this. If Trump feels GOP are not going to stop him, why not them vote on continuation of the war?

Islandsofsand · 02/05/2026 12:42

@Stirabout - apparently the $25B that the war has cost the U.S. does not include the damage caused to the U.S. bases in region.

Stirabout · 02/05/2026 14:32

Islandsofsand · 02/05/2026 12:42

@Stirabout - apparently the $25B that the war has cost the U.S. does not include the damage caused to the U.S. bases in region.

Thanks
Guessing the last thing Trump wants is to announce the real figure to his electorate

TopPocketFind · 02/05/2026 16:08

Stirabout · 02/05/2026 14:32

Thanks
Guessing the last thing Trump wants is to announce the real figure to his electorate

Trump's war is already as unpopular as the Iraq and Vietnam wars.

RedTagAlan · 02/05/2026 16:11

TopPocketFind · 02/05/2026 16:08

Trump's war is already as unpopular as the Iraq and Vietnam wars.

And it appears he has no interest in ending it. I think he is hoping everyone starts buying US and VZ oil.

Islandsofsand · 02/05/2026 16:18

RedTagAlan · 02/05/2026 16:11

And it appears he has no interest in ending it. I think he is hoping everyone starts buying US and VZ oil.

He is speaking about ending it - he says he has 2 options: to make a deal - but that’s taking too long, or to « go and just blast the hell out of them and finish them forever? »

At least he’s thinking of a way out 😳

Before he takes over Cuba apparently.

He’s also found a way of making sure the press agree that US is winning; by making it treacherous to suggest otherwise. So much for any remnants of free speech. If it takes this for people to agree with you….

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/world/live-news/iran-war-news?post-id=cmonmstfp000a3b66z3q4ym1j

Day 63 of Middle East conflict — Trump considers it ‘treasonous’ to say US isn’t winning war | CNN

Trump also called a law limiting the use of force without congressional authorization “totally unconstitutional,” although in a letter to Congressional leaders, he argued that “hostilities” had terminated after a ceasefire was declared.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/world/live-news/iran-war-news?post-id=cmonmstfp000a3b66z3q4ym1j

MissyB1 · 02/05/2026 17:04

Islandsofsand · 02/05/2026 16:18

He is speaking about ending it - he says he has 2 options: to make a deal - but that’s taking too long, or to « go and just blast the hell out of them and finish them forever? »

At least he’s thinking of a way out 😳

Before he takes over Cuba apparently.

He’s also found a way of making sure the press agree that US is winning; by making it treacherous to suggest otherwise. So much for any remnants of free speech. If it takes this for people to agree with you….

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/world/live-news/iran-war-news?post-id=cmonmstfp000a3b66z3q4ym1j

Edited

Just when you think he couldn’t get any worse!

RedTagAlan · 02/05/2026 17:29

MissyB1 · 02/05/2026 17:04

Just when you think he couldn’t get any worse!

Yup. He mentioned the Carrier Abe Lincoln sitting 100 yards off Havanna. That carrier is returning because it is worn out. It needs repair. It is the newest carrier and it has set a record for deployment. It needs drydock for likely a year to have work done.

That just shows how little he understands, or cares.

TopPocketFind · 02/05/2026 17:33

There have been pictures of the food rations onboard

RedTagAlan · 02/05/2026 17:50

TopPocketFind · 02/05/2026 17:33

There have been pictures of the food rations onboard

I am not surprised. It's worn out. I saw a photo on CNN of one of the deployed carriers flight deck. The planes defo need a lick of paint.

The rule of thumb I recall is you need 3 ships of any type to have one deployed. One in maintenance, one training, and one deployed. I think it's one year for each segment. One year deployed ( not even at sea, but ready), 2 years maintenance and training.

RedTagAlan · 03/05/2026 04:14

So now it's about punishing them is it ? For 47 years of damaging humanity ? THEY HAVE TO PAY. Pay what etc not defined.

Not about nukes now ?

US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire
Stirabout · 03/05/2026 10:20

RedTagAlan · 03/05/2026 04:14

So now it's about punishing them is it ? For 47 years of damaging humanity ? THEY HAVE TO PAY. Pay what etc not defined.

Not about nukes now ?

Deflecting away from the cost of his war.

TopPocketFind · 03/05/2026 17:12

Iran has proposed a 3-stage plan to end the war, Al Jazeera reports.

Stage 1, within 30 days:

  • the ceasefire becomes permanent peace
  • Hormuz gradually reopened and US blockade lifted
  • a mutual non-aggression pact including Israel

Stage 2, mid-term:

  • enrichment frozen for 15 years
  • a later cap of 3.6%, civilian level
  • no dismantling of nuclear sites
  • sanctions lifted

Stage 3, long-term:

  • regional Middle East security talks