US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

They signed the JCPOA.

How seriously do Iran take the war with their LEGO stuff?

Maybe you find that amusing- plenty of people do on threads about Trump/Iran.

And why should Iran care about the world economy. They have effectively been locked out of it for 40 odd years. That was the whole thing about the JCPOA. It was about saying to the regime, " Drop your nuke ideas and welcome back".

Iran will soon lose extra $170m per day in oil revenue, claims US

Scott Bessent has claimed Iran will lose an additional $170m (£126m) revenue per day when Kharg Island reaches its maximum storage capacity.

The US treasury secretary said Washington’s Operation Economic Fury was causing “permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure”, including Kharg Island, which is responsible for around 90 per cent of the country’s fuel exports.

He also claimed inflation had doubled in the Islamic Republic, writing in a statement on social media: “The Treasury Department, through Economic Fury, has targeted Iran’s international shadow banking infrastructure, access to crypto, shadow fleet, weapons procurement networks, funding for terrorist proxies in the region, and independent Chinese ‘teapot’ refineries that support Iran’s oil trade.

“These actions have disrupted tens of billions of dollars in revenue that would be used to fund terrorism. Under the president’s maximum pressure campaign, Tehran’s inflation has doubled and its currency has rapidly depreciated.

“Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is soon nearing storage capacity, which will force the regime to reduce oil production, resulting in an additional approximately $170m per day in lost revenue, and causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/29/iran-us-war-live-trump-orders-extended-blockade-iran/

Whoops the "c" word was mentioned in my post - the one to do with currency, I haven't decided to attack anyone.

Again, what are you implying?

The lego clips are clever but I am not celebrating or endorsing them.

Trump's TS are not clever. Trump threatened genocide in case you have forgotten.

It's really hard having a conversation when you don't seem to understand a word I say.

You said: This is how serious Trump takes this war (implying not very seriously).

I replied: How seriously do Iran take the war with their LEGO stuff? (implying the same thing re the use of jokes as propaganda).

Maybe you don't find Trump's silly propaganda funny but lots of people do. The same as lots of people find Iran's silly propaganda funny.

Personally, I find them both a bit funny but I wouldn't be posting either of them because I recognise them for what they are which is propaganda.

Maybe that is because you keep implying things that are not being said.

On the wider subject of Iran, this from CNN:

"At least 21 people have been executed in Iran and 4,000 arrested since the start of its war with the US and Israel, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office (UNHCR).
The executions were carried out amid Iran’s crackdown on dissent, in particular through “national security-related charges,” UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said today.
At least nine people were executed in connection with the January 2026 protests, ten for alleged membership in opposition groups, and two on espionage charges, the agency said.
It continued that, since 28 February, “more than 4,000 individuals are estimated to have been arrested on national security related charges in Iran.”
Many of those arrested have been forcibly disappeared, tortured, or subjected to “cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment,” the statement said."

I wonder if Trump got a thank you card from the Iranian Government when he boasted about arming the protestors, and the CIA stuff.

No I said something quite plainly and then asked you a question.

And I answered you, so shall we leave it at that?

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/irans-guards-seize-wartime-power-blunting-supreme-leaders-role-2026-04-28/

Iran has shifted to a wartime leadership with Revolutionary Guard and Supreme National Security Council taking all decisions on war, security and foreign affairs.

Mojtaba Khamenei only has a symbolic role.

Wow

He’s been watching too much Men in Black
and thinks he’s one 🤣😆

Still
at least he’s preparing to personally fight. Those flat feet must have mended

Not that I think it will stop Israel but every little helps

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying strike group are expected to start heading home from the Middle East in the coming days, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-warning-strait-of-hormuz-bab-el-mandeb-threat-oil-prices/

It's in need of repair, apparently:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/29/us-aircraft-carrier-iran-war/

Also, there is talk that the iranian oil wells will be irreparably damaged by having to shut them off but this is likely untrue according to Javier Blas (energy specialist at Bloomberg) and a number of oil experts.

https://theprint.in/world/no-the-iranian-oil-industry-isnt-about-to-explode/2917718/

Accord to your second source, “By mid May, Iranian oil production will need to halve from pre war levels as storage reaches its limits, with only domestic demand, and some residual trade via trucks, rail and coastal ships in the Caspian Sea, acting as relief valves”.

The writer concludes that “the Economic blow will be immense as the country loses crucial oil revenue”. Even though he, “doesn’t buy the argument that its oil wells would suffer irremediable damage”

Importantly, petroleum engineers can take mitigating action to avoid damage. As well as throttling production, they can rotate shutdowns between oilfields. The key is keeping the wells flowing for as long as possible, avoiding problems, such as water intrusion, that accompany long-lasting closures.

From that I assume any damage could be delayed and pushed into the future. I'm going to see what else I can find out about that type of situation). Would be interesting to know for how long that would work. Also, whilst all that is happening, the Strait is still blocked (unless you're a Russian billionaire) and the rest of the world is suffering from shortfall of various products which is going to intensify. I feel like this wasn't factored into the White House's war strategy - they gave the impression it would all be over in 5 weeks!

The US did indeed seem to underestimate how long the war would last and probably didn't expect Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz as this is potentially a war crime. However, they also must have known it was a possibility.

I think you are underestimating the damage the US blockade is doing to Iran, a situation that will become more serious for them the longer it goes on. It seems to have moved from a military war to an economic one.

Wouldn't deny that the rest of the world will also suffer in the process, or most of it anyway. That is the fault of both Iran and the US for weaponizing the SoH.

Here's a good article on Iran's oil deposits and how it might cope with the problems caused by the blockade.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/irans-oil-sector-can-likely-weather-production-shut-ins-but-gas-fields-are-at-risk/

I think you are underestimating the damage the US blockade is doing to Iran, a situation that will become more serious for them the longer it goes on. It seems to have moved from a military war to an economic one.

Well, I wasn't talking about the economic damage, this concerns the physical damage that may or may not happen to the oil wells. No doubt immense economic damage will happen if it hasn't already, we don't have much access to what's going on inside the country. I do listen to Tousi every so often (but he is majorly biased) - he does get short videos that have been sent out of Iran.

Thank you - will take a look at that article later as going out now.

Just one point though - you said you weren't talking about economic damage, but physical damage to oil wells - or oil production halving from pre war levels, according to your source - IS economic damage to Iran.

Well yes it would do economic damage but that wasn't the gist of my post.

Good article. So it looks like the geology is ok for stopping and starting.

This bit interests me, and I can't find too much about it on my web:

"Tehran might be able to export small quantities by tankers that evade the U.S. blockade, as well as by trucks and rail."

I am wondering if there is rail, logistics, to get the oil to the Caspian. And from there to railheads in Russia to rail tanker it to the PRC. It won't be much if so, but with the price of oil being so high....

@RedTagAlan Perhaps you've seen the Al Jazeera article on that topic:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/29/can-russia-serve-as-an-economic-lifeline-for-iran-amid-the-hormuz-blockade

Blocked where I am sorry. But I did find another article about Iran drilling in the Caspian in a deal with Russia.

The Times of Israel also mentioning that Iran's having to improvise to find storage solutions. I am guessing you may not be able to see that article either @RedTagAlan !

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/reports-iran-improvising-oil-storage-and-export-routes-as-us-blockade-cuts-shipments/

Google AI gives me:

Overland and Alternative Export Efforts (April 2026):
Rail Shipments: Reports indicate Iran is exploring or has begun moving limited amounts of crude oil via rail through Central Asia (via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) to China to bypass the naval blockade. While this route offers a faster transit (12–15 days compared to 30–40 days by sea), it offers significantly lower volume capacity compared to tanker shipments.

Truck and Small Tanker Shipments: Reports suggest Iran is utilizing trucks and smaller, evasive tankers to move, at least, small quantities of refined products and crude.

Limited Impact: These overland methods are considered high-cost and low-volume, serving as a "Plan B" that cannot fully replace the high-volume maritime exports halted by the blockade.