Let's face it Iran is indiscriminatly hitting Israeli civilians targets including schools using cluster bombs.....

[mids2019]

Iran is firing missiles into heavily populated Israeli towns and have abandoned the pretence of targeting anything military.....this is just pure terrorism and does make you think what would happen if Iran did manage to develop a nuclear weapon.

Just hoping more of the missile launch sites can be taken out and this terrorist regime falls.

Last night Trump repeated his threat to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age and told allies to take the Strait themselves

Oil prices soared and shares plummeted

What suggestions do posters have other than cutting a deal with Iran for access?

I don’t know much about this at all @TopPocketFind

Is there a reason the UK couldn’t buy more oil from the US?

I guess we could but that doesn't open the Strait.

No it doesn’t but I guess each country will have to find their own solution where possible, for as long as Iran continue to do what they’re doing with the Straight.

I think the answer is there for all who have eyes to see.

Trump and Netanyahu are effectively being forced to topple Iran at any cost by background financial backers for land and oil, and after Iran will be other regime changes

Versus

Iran's terms are that they are not attacked any more and that there is a 2 state solution for Palestinians negotiated and that countries including Israel stay within their borders and sanctions are stopped.

I think that public opinion would back the latter, to be honest. And the long term solution is that all world leaders join together to require a change to international law (and to ensure enforcement) to make transparency of funding streams a requirement for non-governmental financiers, and to make it against international law to try to control governments using threats about money markets, sanctions etc.

Simple, really.

That is basically repeating what Trump says. He created the mess now other countries have to clear it up.

You can see the huge problems the closed Strait is causing, so it is not as simple as ah well sort out your own oil/feritliser etc.

Public opinion isn’t with the IRGC due to how they’ve treated their own people for 47 years.

Plus it won’t be with them to build bigger weapons including nuclear.

@EasternStandard How do you think the Strait can be opened if not negotiating with Iran?

Yes. Refining capacity. We do not have it : for aviation fuel.

Crude oil and gas we have no shortage. We buy very little from the Gulf. The USA is already our biggest supplier. Followed by Norway. Crude oil alone it is Norway. The USA, despite what Trump claims, buys a lot of oil from the Gulf.

Some refined products we buy lots in in. Aviation fuel for example. And that is refined in other countries from Gulf oil, among others.

We could pay Trump and have 100 tankers full of his Venezuela crude turn up tomorrow, and we could not use it. Because our refineries are not designed to refine it.

Free market capitalism. The oil companies decide where the oil is bought and refined based on maximizing profit. Countries are not buying and refining oil, the oil companies are. National stockpiles are mostly the companies too. When a government tells the companies to keep a certain amount in reserve. Often having to pay in some cases.

Oils are different. And refineries are designed for specific oils.

UK oil imports by country 2024| Statista

Edit to add. This is the sort of stuff Trump is supposed to know and understand. But his debacle with VZ oil shows he does not.

Well you asked the question @TopPocketFind and I have given a possible answer as relates to the UK, though I admitted I don't know much about this topic at all.

What would be your solution? To negotiate with Iran? Some countries are already doing this and being allowed to pass through the SoH.

@EasternStandard

On public opinion. What is your preferred method to open the SoH, and importantly, would public opinion align with your method ?

See what I mean ? If your method is all out boots on the ground war to overthrow the Iranian Government, do you think public opinion would be with you ? Or do you think public opinion would prefer a cent or two extra per barrel ?

People on here have criticised @EasternStandard for asking too many questions @RedTagAlan

Yet here you are bombarding them with loads of questions in one post.

In answer to a few tags I was just looking at the meeting today I think about the Strait.

This stands out as the quoted aim

‘to assess measures to reopen the strait “after the fighting has stopped”.’

Opening the Strait after the IRGC back down and it’s all calm is not the main problem atm

The main barrier is the IRGC have closed it to enemies (their phrasing) which is likely a long list including us, and will allow a few through.

The conference on what to do after it’s fine isn’t the main question. The main question is do we work with people whom we have agreed should be proscribed because they do horrendous things to their people and who we know want weapons that could cause MAD.

On that one over to the EU and co. Not an easy one, I’m reasonably assured they understand the threats from previous statements. What they do I guess we’ll see.

I think you are wrong. Public opinion, ever growing, seems to be absolutely against the bombing, against the attacks by the US and Israel, full stop.

In essence though you are missing the point. The sort of things you are talking about are secondary issues - to be discussed, but not the main issue, which if resolved will mean many secondary issues simply fall away.

Yes, negotiate a deal with Iran. Far from ideal but far better than sending troops to take the Strait as Trump suggests.

A new JCPOA

I don't know that much either but I know the importance of the Strait of Hormuz.

People don’t want bombing but most people are not ok with what the IRGC do. When the people were brutally oppressed in 1999 and 2009 it barely registered as a BBC article.

Unfortunately there’s a black out which makes it hard but hopefully the people can get what they’ve experienced out there. People are slow on this, it doesn’t matter as they can’t see it or other barriers but it should do more as torture and executions become apparent.

And yes it matters. If course it does, 47 years is too long.

What do you think should happen? As TopPocketFind says the only two options seem to be negotiation or boots on the ground. Neither are palatable, but I know which I'd pick.

Factually, you do not know what people think about the IRGC - there are many different views about who they are today and about the existing government out there, and what you are saying is the Israel "narrative" not even the UK government narrative. So I feel you are quite deeply misunderstanding the geopolitics. I think trying to conflate what happened in '79 with what is happening today is taking you down the wrong path too.

And, factually, in contrast, the voices against the attacks by the US and Israel are loud, vocal, widespread, cross borders.

And from a logical point of view, it is necessary to sort out the main issues first. Which is not the IRGC.

Bombing Iran back to the Stone Age, would be the USA doing exactly as the thread title says, indiscriminatly hitting civilians, in this case Iranian civilians.

Well I disagree with you and think you’re doing what you cite in your post. And there’s enough Iranian women and men speaking up and I’m happy to listen to them.

I agree that boots on the ground is terrible for all concerned and we want to be pulling that idea back.

But the negotiation you mention would be a permanent solution or a temporary sticking plaster do you think?

Negotiation might feel better but what they want is hardcore enough to come back to bite in five to ten years.

So hopefully the EU and co can project the potential outcomes past rn.

Quote : "The main question is do we work with people whom we have agreed should be proscribed because they do horrendous things to their people and who we know want weapons that could cause MAD."

Who has agreed they should be proscribed ?

Not the UK so far as I can see. If you live in a country where they are... well then. But a reminder. The IRGC are not the Iranian Government.

UK Government rejects calls to proscribe IRGC - The Jewish Chronicle - The Jewish Chronicle (thejc.com)

Actually the largest group of Iranians speaking out is disagreeing with the idea of US or Israel intervention. Unequivocably.

I suppose it would be temporary, but at this point what else can be done? Maybe the sticking plaster would stay on for a couple of years and see out Trump? I can't imagine whoever comes next will be worse, but then again...