Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

The only people anywhere near the bus so far are those with large debt and people trying to sell a house, stock markets dropping (they have barely moved so far) will be a buying opportunity, but this is set to rumble on, the geography makes it easy for Iran to cause massive disruption with drones.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/mortgage-rates-spike-as-lenders-pull-hundreds-of-products-moneyfacts/

You pick and choose bits without taking in the entirety of what I wrote. Not trusting Witkoff does not translate into automatically trusting Iran. It was simply a statement of fact. We also came away from Nusseibeh's comments with different understandings and emphases. She talked about international law.

However, I'm indeed distrustful of the intentions of both this WH administration and Netanyahu and pity the innocent people caught up in their machinations. Iran was attacked WHILE they were still in nuclear negotiations with the US. Kerry is being interviewed now on CNN and he stresses that nobody should underestimate Iran's capabilities. This war will not end well for anyone.

But it's time to get back to the original post. There's a lot of money to be made in O&G volatility.

I think the concern is that Witkoff is a property agent and not a diplomat. The choice to use Kremlin employees to translate is an odd choice.

But I resent the attempt to frame posters as pro IRGC rather than concerned where this war will end.

One main beneficiary of the war appears to be Russia which does not bode well for the peace and safety of Europe.

I do not see where anyone has said they trust Iran.

Could indeed be your own bias.

I accept that other posters trust Iran over US negotiators to the degree that they don't accept Witkoff is telling the truth because Iran haven't confirmed it.

Respectfully, you appear to have completely misunderstood all that I have written and have attributed my position incorrectly.

If you don’t trust them what do you do about monitoring weapon production? If they say yes we’ve stopped and that’s untrustworthy what should happen?

The comment was made that a poster doesn't trust what Witkoff said partly because Iran has not acknowledged it.

Suggests that they would believe it if Iran had acknowledged it.

Again, I am not sure what you are asking?

That is a strange way of looking at it imo, I didn’t read it like that at all.

Again, if you say you don’t trust Iran and they say they won’t build nuclear weapons what would you do?

Say ok you’re probably being truthful or not

I have no idea what I would do. I would put people in place to deal with it who have the relevant knowledge and experience.

The US had this until they started gutting departments.

What would you do?

I don’t think I’d let them get to a place where they had nuclear weapon capability. I agree with Ursula von der Leyen and anyone who’s said the same we can’t just ignore the threat. I think it’s potentially MAD as others would get involved.

I’m anti conflict but anti MAD more so it’s not an easy one.

Nobody trusts Iran.

But you cant bomb uranium out of existence so I suppose what you want is boots on the ground either to deal with it in situ (dilute it safely) or to move it.

Either requires the US to be in control of Iran. And to know exactly where it is stored - most likely to have been broken up.

Given that the population is unarmed and unable to fight that requires complete decimation of the IRGC and a population will to be temporarily or otherwise under the US's control.

Months of war. Months of the Straits being closed.

Months of Russia making money - and everything that means for the future of Europe.

The comment was made that a poster doesn't trust what Witkoff said partly because Iran has not acknowledged it.

You have my permission to name me. Once again, this is a wrongful interpretation of what I wrote.
How often will I have to say it for you to realise it?

The US did try with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

If ‘nobody trusts Iran’ then why aren’t you concerned with their nuclear weapon capability? And if you are concerned what should happen?

On the rest I think this overlooks the population not being with the IRGC. If they can go out on the streets without being shot then it’s closer to dealing with all issues.

Most analysts, including inside US intelligence, agree Iran hasn’t decided to pursue weapons and the IAEA hasn’t detected a structured weapons program. The probability Iran decides to build a nuclear weapon remains below 50%, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
But the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening hours of the war has triggered a succession process that could reshape nuclear decision-making. Khamenei had issued a religious edict, or fatwa, against developing nuclear weapons. A successor could revisit that stance.
https://fortune.com/2026/03/08/us-special-operation-forces-raid-iran-uranium-nuclear-weapons-program/

if you read that article regarding options and believe there is a straightforward answer that will be resolved easily I don’t know what say.

The US clearly misrepresented their achievements last year - either they’ll need to do the same again or we are stuck in this for a long time.

Great for Putin.

Your mention of The Institute of Science and International Security led me to google their views, which landed on this for Iran.

Based on three years of intensive research and analysis of the Nuclear Archives, this new book from the Institute presents a compelling account of Iran’s secret plans to develop nuclear weapons.

Since 2003, the Islamic Republic’s nuclear scientists and weaponeers have concentrated on establishing capabilities to make weapon-grade uranium and developing more reliable, longer-range ballistic missiles. Work on the nuclear weapon itself also has continued. Given how much Iran learned about building nuclear weapons during its crash program, combined with its post-2003 accomplishments, the country has developed a sophisticated capability to make nuclear weapons.

Sounds pretty comprehensive and concerning.

Sounds like we are fucked either way.
Btw excuse my ignorance why is Russia benefiting in this.

@IsEveryUserNameBloodyTaken - price of oil has gone up substantially so they're now able to sell their rationed amount for double the revenue

Because Trump has lifted sanctions on Russian oil to ease his domestic troubles about rising fuel and energy costs related to reduced oil supplies because the SofH is effectively closed. As a bonus the Iranians have also increased their oil output and are selling it to China. Essentially this war has fucked most of the worlds economies whilst simultaneously boosting those of the nations we claim are the biggest threats. Slow hand claps all round for the strategic geniuses who engineered this shit show.

The US’s own threat assessment (2025) reported -

WMD
We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear
weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.

So the book / institute is now not to be heard?

Why not?

We've had the JCPOA or Iran Nuclear Deal since 2015. Trump pulled out in 2018 and the 5+1 who were part of the agreement failed to deliver on sanctions relief so Iran didn't feel obliged to hold up their end of the bargain either. Until 2018 the IAEA stated that they had adhered to the letter of the agreement. They were not enriching beyond 3.67% (for domestic energy), they had got rid of their centrifuges and depleted their stockpile of uranium enriched beyond 3.67% by 90 or 95% (I'm writing this from memory and can't remember the which figure it was).

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/

In its 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded that while Iran does not appear to be currently pursuing development of a nuclear device, the nuclear activities undertaken since 2020 “better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so”.

They have 400kg of uranium which, in the most recent negotiations, they are reported to have agreed to hand over to the US. They were even willing to discuss their ballistic missile program. Kushner and Witkoff were not accompanied by anyone with nuclear expertise in their negotiations.

Iran and anyone else who does not want to be attacked will almost certainly develop a nuclear weapon now.

What’s wrong with quoting the US director of national intelligence?