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Conflict in the Middle East

Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

1000 replies

mids2019 · 10/03/2026 07:33

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

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54
Theolittle · 30/03/2026 17:59

UYN · 10/03/2026 08:20

Trump is a conflict entrepreuner.

Arms manufacturers and the world arms traders are making a fortune out of this.

No-one cares about the civilians filling up their petrol tanks or shopping baskets.

Or kids dying?

UYN · 30/03/2026 18:16

Theolittle · 30/03/2026 17:59

Or kids dying?

I can't imagine an arms dealer caring about the death of children, or anyone at all for that matter - it's exactly what they are in the market for.

MushMonster · 30/03/2026 18:27

Theolittle · 30/03/2026 17:59

Or kids dying?

Exactly.
Better to make a good example of this lot of what happens when you play up with the world shopping basket and life supplies.

KeepPumping · 30/03/2026 20:50

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 12:05

But militarily it would be possible to seize Kharg Island- its 15 miles off the Iranian coast and 90% of Iran's oil exports go through it.

Yes if the US took Kharg Island then the Iranians would be raining down both drones, missiles and artillery on to it. But a) they would then be destroying their own refineries and export capacities and b) they would helpfully be disclosing their launchers and artillery sites.

If the Iranians didn't destroy it then they would be losing the majority of their income needed to finance the country and its ability to wage war leading to civil unrest.

If they did destroy it then they would be losing the majority of the income for future years as well until it had been reconstructed.

Lastly they couldn't easily export from another Iranian port as the majority do not have depth of water needed for deep draft oil tankers.

Exactly, it looks like this plan might go ahead soon.

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 21:15

Alexandra2001 · 30/03/2026 17:00

They can get around 5 to 6% of supply through Yanbu, Hormuz takes around 18 to 20m bpd, Yanbu is designed for 4m bpd but can go to 7m bpd.

Of course its 100s of miles of unprotected pipe....

Obviously, if no other oil production sites are bombed, then yes, a reduction can be managed, at a higher price for all...

Atm China is still getting oil, should Trump escalate, this will stop & oil will far exceed todays prices.

One thing that concerns me is the different narratives coming from Trump and the Iranians... Trump seems to think negotiations are going well.... the Iranians: "What negotiations?"

I see the different narratives coming out from Trump
and Iran as simply window dressing to allow Trump to seize Kharg or bomb Iranian power stations on a "look I'm a man of peace who tried really hard to get a peaceful solution with the Iranians but they just weren't interested, so instead I bombed the crap out of them".

MushMonster · 30/03/2026 21:55

Why would Iran bomb their own oil export port? When they can bomb.... everything!
I do have my serious doubts about this.
It is like a massive poker game. Both players are done, whatever card they play. They bluff. But deep down, they know they have to quit it now.

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 22:47

MushMonster · 30/03/2026 21:55

Why would Iran bomb their own oil export port? When they can bomb.... everything!
I do have my serious doubts about this.
It is like a massive poker game. Both players are done, whatever card they play. They bluff. But deep down, they know they have to quit it now.

If the US put troops on to Kharg and occupied it then Iran would most likely attack the Island causing damage to their own oil export facilities.

This would also heavily impact the Chinese economy which is heavily dependent on ignoring the sanctions on Iran and buying cheap Iranian crude.

KeepPumping · 30/03/2026 22:52

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 22:47

If the US put troops on to Kharg and occupied it then Iran would most likely attack the Island causing damage to their own oil export facilities.

This would also heavily impact the Chinese economy which is heavily dependent on ignoring the sanctions on Iran and buying cheap Iranian crude.

What would China do?

BelleHathor · 30/03/2026 23:50

China is fine, their ships can pass through Hormuz and Iran is taking payment in Chinese Yuan to allow friendly vessels to pass:

As of March 2026, China has implemented severe restrictions on exports of critical materials, fertilizers, and fuels, including ban-like quotas on urea, nitrogen-potassium blends, and refined fuel.

China, as a fellow member of BRICS has been helping Iran since the June 2025 war. They've also been stockpiling Oil as this war was predictable (given how none of the other ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza have been respected). Worst case scenario Russia can up it's supply and they share a land border.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/where-china-gets-its-oil-crude-imports-in-2025-reveal-stockpiling-and-changing-fortunes-of-certain-suppliers-including-those-sanctioned/

The attack on Iran can be interpreted as the latest attempt to contain China (following so closely on from Venezuela) and also harm BRICS. Part of Trump’s obsession with slowing down the decline of America.

It's in Chinas interest to assist both Iran (and previously Russia) militarily deplete America.

Where China Gets Its Oil: Crude Imports in 2025 Reveal Stockpiling and Changing Fortunes of Certain Suppliers, Including Those Sanctioned - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP %

Get the latest as our experts share their insights on global energy policy.

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/where-china-gets-its-oil-crude-imports-in-2025-reveal-stockpiling-and-changing-fortunes-of-certain-suppliers-including-those-sanctioned/

Ellen2shoes · 30/03/2026 23:55

@UYN Trump is conflict entrepreneur.

Exactly.

Instead of wondering who is making what out of this, shouldn’t we be accepting that this is the objective and uniting against the humanitarian crises which is the result?
When I first read the title of this thread I assumed that it would be about the thousands killed, millions displaced.

Have learnt about what Mnettes know about the geopolitics and infinite possibilities of how this might play out, but surely by now it should be about how to make it stop??

Will the people of the US and Israel be able to hold strong against this madness? Will we in Europe? How will we do it?

TooBigForMyBoots · 31/03/2026 02:01

rainingsnoring · 30/03/2026 02:58

I already made a comment about this post. It doesn't appear that it was sarcasm, no.

Fucking hell!🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

Alexandra2001 · 31/03/2026 07:17

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 21:15

I see the different narratives coming out from Trump
and Iran as simply window dressing to allow Trump to seize Kharg or bomb Iranian power stations on a "look I'm a man of peace who tried really hard to get a peaceful solution with the Iranians but they just weren't interested, so instead I bombed the crap out of them".

I don't think Trump has any idea of what he is doing, he isn't fit to be President and i wouldn't be surprised if he is removed.

You re applying logic to an illogical man.

No one knows what Trump will do, he could just as easily use or threaten to, a nuclear weapon on Iran or just pull out, claiming "Regime Change" and a victory, regardless of the actual situation.

Twiglets1 · 31/03/2026 07:35

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 21:15

I see the different narratives coming out from Trump
and Iran as simply window dressing to allow Trump to seize Kharg or bomb Iranian power stations on a "look I'm a man of peace who tried really hard to get a peaceful solution with the Iranians but they just weren't interested, so instead I bombed the crap out of them".

Overnight, the US has struck a large Iranian ammunition depot with 2,000 - pound bunker buster bombs.

Trump shared footage of the large scale attack, showing a series of primary and secondary explosions in the city of Isfahan, a central hub for Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.

Pete Hegseth & Gen Dain Caine will hold a news conference at 1pm BST.

DaffodilsandDillies · 31/03/2026 08:13

@Twiglets1 let's hope they got it this time the uranium.
If they can get to the drones etc as well...

EasternStandard · 31/03/2026 08:29

TooBigForMyBoots · 31/03/2026 02:01

Fucking hell!🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

Not sure why the fucking hell emoji stuff to the pp. Use is dropping, it’s going to do more of that than any activist stunt.

Boolabus · 31/03/2026 08:37

EasternStandard · 31/03/2026 08:29

Not sure why the fucking hell emoji stuff to the pp. Use is dropping, it’s going to do more of that than any activist stunt.

Come off it, use is dropping due to supply issues and cost it will surge back up once the crisis is over. Unfortunately alternatives are not fully developed or available yet so this is a temporary downturn not one by choice and as there are no alternatives it will have massive economic implications effecting peoples livelihoods if things down settle soon. It is like suggesting covid was great for the environment because no one could drive or fly anywhere, yeah those 2 years made massive inroads in correcting the damage.....

Hopefully though it will accelerate the need to find and invest in alternatives to oil

EasternStandard · 31/03/2026 08:46

Boolabus · 31/03/2026 08:37

Come off it, use is dropping due to supply issues and cost it will surge back up once the crisis is over. Unfortunately alternatives are not fully developed or available yet so this is a temporary downturn not one by choice and as there are no alternatives it will have massive economic implications effecting peoples livelihoods if things down settle soon. It is like suggesting covid was great for the environment because no one could drive or fly anywhere, yeah those 2 years made massive inroads in correcting the damage.....

Hopefully though it will accelerate the need to find and invest in alternatives to oil

Edited

The pp doesn’t need those mocking and aggro responses. Price, demand and supply has the biggest impact of anything.

Smeuse · 31/03/2026 08:56

EasternStandard · 31/03/2026 08:46

The pp doesn’t need those mocking and aggro responses. Price, demand and supply has the biggest impact of anything.

The pp should have thought about that before making such a glib comment.

Boolabus · 31/03/2026 08:59

EasternStandard · 31/03/2026 08:46

The pp doesn’t need those mocking and aggro responses. Price, demand and supply has the biggest impact of anything.

I was responding to this part of you your post
Use is dropping, it’s going to do more of that than any activist stunt.

I am also sure the pp is well able to fight their own battles

EasternStandard · 31/03/2026 09:00

Boolabus · 31/03/2026 08:59

I was responding to this part of you your post
Use is dropping, it’s going to do more of that than any activist stunt.

I am also sure the pp is well able to fight their own battles

I’m sure they are, you’re responding to posts as am I.

MushMonster · 31/03/2026 09:07

1dayatatime · 30/03/2026 22:47

If the US put troops on to Kharg and occupied it then Iran would most likely attack the Island causing damage to their own oil export facilities.

This would also heavily impact the Chinese economy which is heavily dependent on ignoring the sanctions on Iran and buying cheap Iranian crude.

What I mean is that I doubt they will bomb the island themselves. I think they will go all out for anything in reach, as per their threats.
They are still heavily armed.

notimagain · 31/03/2026 09:23

What I mean is that I doubt they will bomb the island themselves

If the regime see it existential, an end of days scenario I think they are fully capable of bombing the islands themselves.

They know a belated rerun of some of the WW2 Pacific island battles, with Marines being shipped back home dead or injured by the score/hundreds will play very badly with most of the US population.

1dayatatime · 31/03/2026 09:26

KeepPumping · 30/03/2026 22:52

What would China do?

Well as other posters have correctly pointed out China does have strong reserves but if the US does seize Kharg it will still hit them hard.

China will not want to get directly involved. However I imagine that they will up supplies of military hardware to Iran, which will also provide them with real life knowledge and experience of combating US weapons which will be invaluable for any upcoming attack on Taiwan.

1dayatatime · 31/03/2026 09:33

MushMonster · 31/03/2026 09:07

What I mean is that I doubt they will bomb the island themselves. I think they will go all out for anything in reach, as per their threats.
They are still heavily armed.

Yes it will create an interesting dilemma for the Iranian regime.

Leave the US in control of Kharg which means they will lose control of 90% of their oil revenue leading to a quick economic collapse, which in turn will lead to civil unrest (but they could at least blame the US) or

Bomb / shell the hell out of Kharg to try and kill as many US Marines as possible (it's a very small island with not a lot of places to hide). However this will destroy their own infrastructure so that even when the war ends they will lose 90% of their oil export infrastructure, leading to a collapse in Government revenues and their economy, leading to civil unrest- could they still blame the US even if they themselves destroyed Kharg? Possibly.

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