Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

Worse than that- Iran are now attempting to set up a toll for ships to use the strait!

48 days of fuel left in New Zealand, anyone know why many days in the UK? Although as Rachel Reeves collects a 70% tax from fuel I'm not sure the government is that keen to end the war. And actually it just fricking awful, children in Iran and other middle eastern countries being killed.

Is this sarcasm?

This war is an environmental disaster on multiple levels!

I'm not sure what you mean by this 'if mass starvation was on the cards loads of countries would pile in and help Trump secure the vital areas'
Trump wouldn't be involved in food shortages in Asian or African countries.

I already made a comment about this post. It doesn't appear that it was sarcasm, no.

Iran?
That depends if you think its our job or the USA's to removing "rogue" states or those we don't like.

We had an awful regime in Syria (killing 100s of 1000s) we have an terrible one in Myanmar, then there is China, first in Tibet and now attacking other minorities.... oh lets not forget N.Korea.

We shouldn't be in Iran and imho the real mad ones are in Israel and the US... we possibly haven't seen anything yet, should the US put troops in Iran, we will see huge loss of life and attacks on its neighbours water, oil and gas facilities.

Anyone who thinks this will end with a new reasonable regime in Tehran is being led by the nose .....

As for Asda and BP... 2 companies who have definitely made the most of recent price increases and who will only be too happy to take Govt money or hike prices, as ASDA (and other supermarkets) did when they took Business rates relief, despite very strong sales and profitability, only paying back due to public pressure.

Use is dropping in many countries around the world, as policies are put in place. If the Just Stop Oil lot meant it they will see how it works if supply drops.

There are 90 million people in Iran, over 1m militia, in a country the size of Europe.

"Seize vital areas"

This is the same sort of stupid ideas that has got us into this mess in the first place.

Iran will retaliate against vital oil and gas facilities around the ME? the Houthis will block the Red sea routes too.

It is not possible to seize vital areas, the lack of knowledge on Iran and the people running the country is astounding.

@Alexandra2001 but your post is without context .
China has nukes and billions of soldiers.
North Korea has ....nukes.
Other rouge states don't plot terror around the world. Twenty....twenty Iranian terror plots on UK soil have been stopped !! Twenty !

They fuel terror all over.

Asda and BP are sounding the alarm over fuel issues.

Again I can't see the logic in your post.
Let's say the specific head of asda and bp now are both looking forward to massive profits...that doesn't deter from the fact they are trying to raise an alarm over shortages. Surely that's a good thing from the people who will have the proper knowledge about what's coming through.

@Alexandra2001 I think the idea is that the people of Iran are not loyal to wicked murderous regime who has imprisoned them for 40 years and murders and rapes nurses who tried to help the protesters.
Therefore once momentum is underway perhaps the people who rose up before will again.....once they see that they can.
Unfortunalty there is still a very tight control over public behaviour and private behavour.

Mass issues are on the cards and I cant understand why other countries aren't helping.

A friend in an African country said business have started to ration and normal fuel is through the roof.
They are war gaming their own food supplies because they have a small holding .

Yes it’s hard when it’s clear torture and death are the outcomes.

Poor people, they didn’t want this. 47 years of brutality. Rather, they thought it wouldn’t be this.

But militarily it would be possible to seize Kharg Island- its 15 miles off the Iranian coast and 90% of Iran's oil exports go through it.

Yes if the US took Kharg Island then the Iranians would be raining down both drones, missiles and artillery on to it. But a) they would then be destroying their own refineries and export capacities and b) they would helpfully be disclosing their launchers and artillery sites.

If the Iranians didn't destroy it then they would be losing the majority of their income needed to finance the country and its ability to wage war leading to civil unrest.

If they did destroy it then they would be losing the majority of the income for future years as well until it had been reconstructed.

Lastly they couldn't easily export from another Iranian port as the majority do not have depth of water needed for deep draft oil tankers.

Yes there is environmental damage from the attacks on Qatari, Kuwaiti and UAE oil facilities but this is being done by the Iranian regime.

However it is factually accurate to state that rising oil prices will reduce demand. On this point the environmental lobby should be all in favour of the conflict. The reality is that Donald Trump has done more for reducing oil consumption in 30 days than Just Stop Oil ever did in 5 years.

And on this basis Just Stop Oil should be Trump's biggest supporters, but somehow I don't think this will be the case!

The Times provides an interesting overview with a fairly mild summing up that some military analysts think it could be a suicide mission, but some think it is possible.

Can the US take Kharg Island? How an invasion could play out

https://www.thetimes.com/article/278700c8-f535-4078-96f5-95b7005bd353?shareToken=a33ab6b1acae1a98ffe76719ec9b6d3e

As I said already, that's a non sequitur. That means that one does not logically follow the other.

Just to explain myself, as you appear not to have followed, I expect most people are aware that high oil prices reduce demand. From an environmental, and some other perspectives, that is a good thing. It does not follow that people who want to reduce demand for fossil fuels support a war which is also causing tens of thouands of civilians to be murdered, billions of $s of infrastructure damage, immense environmental damage, a huge worldwide recession plus many other potential effects such as breaking the world's just in time supply chains and starvation in some countries.

'Yes there is environmental damage from the attacks on Qatari, Kuwaiti and UAE oil facilities but this is being done by the Iranian regime'
You do realise that Israel and the US started this war right? It is their actions that have directly led to the environmental damage, including the Iranian retaliation and all the other potential effects I just described.

What about Myanmar & Syria? no one gave or gives a dam about their citizens plight.
We also trade very keenly with China... all those EVs we should all be buying and those handy Supermarket Solar panels... ....

Anyway, wait until Trump invades and or destroy oil gas plants - $300 per barrel anyone?

The idea he can capture and then use Iranian oil is for the birds... how would he get the stuff out through Hormuz?

I used to think Brexit was an historic act of self damage but what Trump and his supporters are doing, does literally trump that many times over...

Anyone supporting this conflict is not just shooting themselves in the foot but in their head too.

So how else do you suggest reducing oil consumption globally other than through price?

Taxation only works at a country level, equally higher oil prices and higher electricity and gas prices from taxation also cause economic hardship and reduce economic growth- just look at the UK and the exodus of industrial jobs because of high energy prices.

As for the death toll 30 thousand innocent Iranian civilians were killed by the regime for simply protesting. Whereas the death toll from the current conflict is estimated at 3,500 (Iranian Government figures) and difference is that the US and Israel are targeting Government and military targets whereas the Iranian regime were targeting civilian protester.

Lastly, yes the US and Israel did start this war, so I can understand the rationale for Iran attacking Israel and also US military bases in the region. But why do you think it is acceptable for Iran to attack hotels in Dubai or gas infrastructure in Qatar or even Oman / Turkey/ Azerbaijan that have literally nothing to do with this conflict?

In short it appears that rather than go against your previously established views on Trump and Israel then you find yourself sympathising with the brutal Iranian regime.

I never said Iran would bomb the crap out of Kharg Island, they don't need too, just turn their attention (even more to Hormoz) and the oil facilities of its neighbours.

Watch oil prices go to $300 per barrel, yes Iran loses much of its oil revenue but they ve already doubled income in the last month too...

Iran on Friday destroyed an AWACs plane on Friday, not something even the US has plenty of, they still have capacity to do far more damage.

btw my brother is in SA, working for S/Aramco, his take is $300 pb is a modest prediction should this all go very wrong.

Well oil is never going to get to $300 a barrel in any other than a short term blip. At that level demand will collapse significantly so that demand comes more into line with the available supply. As the old saying goes "the best cure for high prices is high prices ".

As for supply 20% of world oil supplies go through the Straits of Hormuz. Of which over 80% goes to Asian markets, principally China. So there is no way China will accept that.

Then there are strategic oil reserves, for example Japan has around 250 days worth. Then there is the Saudis who will be seeking to maximise exports from Yanbu in the Red Sea rather than Ras Tan.

Finally you have countries like Iraq, Qatar and UAE that won't tolerate having the exports and primary source of income stopped and will end up getting involved.

Still if prices do stay high then it at least makes the Saudi Aramco E&P opportunity in Saldanha Bay viable because of it being an expensive deep water development.

Nope, you missed the bit where i mentioned Iran would have to be attacking its neighbours oil/gas facilities for this to happen.

Look also at history?

Oil trebled in price in the 70s, causing huge damage for many years, prices remained high for approx a decade, prices have barely risen 50% so far.

Demand can only drop a certain amount, beyond which, our way of life would be severely curtailed...

Though as i said earlier, considering the amount of traffic on the roads right now, fuel needs to go up a heck of a lot more before traffic levels drop.

But my point is that because only 20% of world crude oil demand flows through the Straits of Hormuz and say half of this can be diverted to Yanbu on the Red Sea and through to Oman then you are really looking at a 10% drop in supply. Which although is a lot, it is a volume that could be handled through demand reduction. Though it would particularly impact China and Asian countries hardest.

Regarding attacks on refineries, production and export terminals I agree that this is a bigger problem. Although it's worth noting that Iran appears to be running low on drones and missiles:

They can get around 5 to 6% of supply through Yanbu, Hormuz takes around 18 to 20m bpd, Yanbu is designed for 4m bpd but can go to 7m bpd.

Of course its 100s of miles of unprotected pipe....

Obviously, if no other oil production sites are bombed, then yes, a reduction can be managed, at a higher price for all...

Atm China is still getting oil, should Trump escalate, this will stop & oil will far exceed todays prices.

One thing that concerns me is the different narratives coming from Trump and the Iranians... Trump seems to think negotiations are going well.... the Iranians: "What negotiations?"

Ok, let's say they take Kharg island. And what? What next?
The oil wells are not in the island. Iran cannot ship easily from other locations.
One cannot take oil out of the ground. The other cannot ship it.
How does that help in any way? It will only further escalate the conflict. Oil and gas installations (possibly water) will become the target. Hormuz Strait may actually be mined this time. We all lose. A lot.
I do not see it like a winning move. More like digging a deeper hole for one's grave move.

I do think they are talking, but more led to it by mounting international (and domestic, for Trump) pressure than because they want a final deal.

They are talking and preparing for the next military stage at the same time.

So whether the restaurant in the corner will be open next week, how much our commute will cost next month, whether our job is secure, if we are getting that payrise, if we can afford to keep our child in that club they love, if we can afford new clothes and shoes and so on and on... is on the hands of these individuals. Not a caring responsible and capable one to be found amongst them all.

By the way, to put it in perspective, Trump administration is spending a lot in expenses, namely lobster tails and crabs.
So they are enjoying their children play, blowing up things. While we, according to one previous poster, must use more bikes and less cars. Which, yes, it is true. Some people abuse the use of their car and it is healthy for us and the environment to cycle or walk. But the power of choice is what drives our society. And crashing the economy so we can cycle to work (miles and miles away?) is not the solution.

I just hope to see Trump cycling to work too. And eating ham and cheese sandwiches for lunch.

And if they could just actually stop themselves from blowing up oil depos, installations or gas fields, then they will save some good amount of carbon footprint too. To be added to the rockets and drones and what else is being used.