How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

[mids2019]

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

And then, if that comes to pass..

What happens next

It will never collapse; just temporarily retreat.

Hopefully before the school summer holidays start so lots of mumsnetters aren't on edge going to Southern Europe on holiday?

Interesting question. I think it’s a genuine possibility.

What’s hard to know is whether it needs to be a speedy street-crowd based overthrow or a slower burn military/political putsch.

One hard lesson, though, is that regime change rarely gets a better government than the shit heap it replaces.

If police headquarters are in the Israeli bit list there may be a huge dent in internal security I think and eventually the Iranian people will take advantage. You will also see maybe senior Iranian security personnel start to think of their own safety rather than jobs and if a few resign/disappear then a domino effect my just result (look at Syria).

I don't think Iran is communicating well with its own citizens with disrupted media and poor internet. Above all Iran will simply look incredibly weak to its own citizens who will feel lied to about the strength of its army. Iran's armed forces and it's proxies have been crushed....how does the regime get out of this?

They've got too much heavyweight protection and funding from Saudis. Another coup d'etat would be very difficult.

Maybe an even worse regime will take its place. Frightening. I don't think many folk would object to the fall of that Ayatollah

Well I think it’s only logical to look at how regime change went in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

Those all produced far worse options. The rise of Isis was largely down to the power vacuum left behind after gulf war2, Libya is a mess, and the Taliban are back in charge.

I’m surprised that there are people all over X & TikTok supporting Iran. Yet there are Iranian’s posting about how grateful they are to Israel for killing the leaders off. They are a truly awful regime & it’s baffling that there are middle class Brits waving Iranian flags in support of them. The women of Iran have been silenced & oppressed so fingers crossed this will be a new era for the country.

This is not the way to go about it

look at Syria

Eh?

I don't understand why you would say that you think the Iranian government will fall within days based on Syria, where a popular uprising in 2011 led to the government falling in 2024 - with a brutal civil war spanning over a decade in between.

Are you so young that you missed the start of the Syrian war and think it all started and finished last year? People were talking like you about Syria in 2011.

fingers crossed this will be a new era for the country.

Yes, because the new era is shaping up really well for the people of Libya since their government was toppled. To give just one example.

That’s too dismissive.

Some left-wing opinion has been sensible and reasonable. A great deal, though, has tethered itself to the “Yemen, Yemen, make us proud…” and Palestine Solidarity bullshit.

I doubt that disposing of the Iranian government would end well, but there’s no reason to criticise those who want that or who bring it about.

Unfortunately there is avery long tradition of 'anti-imperialist' lefties in thrall to any group or government that is anti west, particularly anti-American, and anti-Israel. Iran is the epitome. Read What's Left by Nick Cohen for some of the background to this tendency. I mean who would think British people would see Hamas as legitimate resistance?

Channel 4 is actually quite good as it goes. Certainly much better than Geebeebies.

Left wing, right wing, use your brain wing.

Collapsing the Iranian govt will only bring increased chaos and disorder to the entire region- history tells us this!

Palestine Solidarity bullshit

I don’t, and I would say too the vast majority of people that see the two state solution would see that aim as bullshit

Its the only way forward, and should be pushed for as most western democracies wholeheartedly agree.

There is no perfect state in the middle East but Iraq is at least fairly stable and I think the important point for any new regime is that it stops aiming to produce nuclear weapons. My point is how long can you have a functioning government when the levers of state are systematically dismantled?

Won't there be an economic impact on Iran that will mean even the most loyal servant of the state will start to question the wisdom of continued aggression toward Israel and see political opportunities?

Channel 4 is shit. It’s been shit for at least 15 years, since everything C4 was set up to provide has been available on dozens of satellite channels. That’s why it’s now full of crappy sex entertainment.

GB News is just a vanity project. It’s not a public service channel and not comparable.

Anyway, we agree that regime change in Iran would likely be a bad thing. But we probably disagree that Israel has a good reason to at least try: I think Iran is run by Neanderthal men who get their jollies from beating up women and murdering Jews.

The problem is that what may follow could be even more horrible. Let’s see.

There’s so much shit on this thread. Saudi and Iran are massive enemies, so there’s no way Iran is getting any Saudi cash, and Channel 4 News is produced independently from Channel 4.

Yes bar one show it is that. So crappy.

Re topic maybe op.

When did Saudi start funding Iran? I must have missed it.

I would not be sorry to see the Iranian regime collapse and I agree that they look incredibly weak at the moment. As to how long it’s got before it does or if it does I don’t know. I worry about what would replace it and think there must be a very large proportion of Iranian men who love the control they have and will be loathe to give it up. I hope that a resistance to the regime can seize an opportunity to take control but I have no idea if there even is such a resistance that could be organised enough to do this.

The problem is that what may follow could be even more horrible

Well, bingo, there we go

And Krish GM is one of our finest journalists, as are much of the ch4 news team, buts that’s just my leftie (haven’t voted labour in years) opinion…

I’ve looked up women’s & gay rights in Palestine & I am sure Iran is even worse. I find it hard to support either regimes. I do however feel terribly sorry for those stuck in the middle of the war & those losing lives & homes. It’s a complete mess.