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Conflict in the Middle East

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

369 replies

mids2019 · 16/06/2025 20:21

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

OP posts:
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TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 10:23

Whatsinanamehey · 17/06/2025 10:05

VERY BIGLY ONE 🤣

it's all so shit isn't it. Ukraine have just undergone a massive drone attack this morning too. Trump portrayed himself as the one who will end the wars but has done nothing of the sort.

I think he actually believed that all he had to do was say "Stop" and all the leaders would stop their wars.

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 10:56

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 10:23

I think he actually believed that all he had to do was say "Stop" and all the leaders would stop their wars.

Edited

Zelensky said last night that Trump specifically stopped Ukraine from cutting Putin’s life line, ie, energy and fuel supplies.

Europe is getting pulled into a US game and very fast too. Trump is backed by oligarchs who have strong interest in all this. Hence his campaign to take over Greenland. I do not think he and his backers will ever give up on leaving Europe alone. It is a lot of land which they have their eyes on.

tramtracks · 17/06/2025 11:35

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 09:25

FFS we need to stop playing the nuke card! Israel already has nuclear weapons and has never allowed any international oversight or investigation.
No country will and has event attacked another nuclear power.

I can almost see the logic if Iranis were indeed trying get their hands on nukes which I doubt as this has not been investigated thoroughly yet.

However, who will blame them now seeing as Israel is about to do to Tehran what it did to Gaza?

So stop playing the nuke card. Israel is the biggest threat to the region’s future right now.
Do you think the images of Gaza and Tehran will somehow just get wiped off the memories of the people living through these times and raising their future generation there.
Or probably that is why Netenyahu is so keen to kill children - decreases the future risk of retaliation against your terror campaign, doesn’t it, if there are no children that will grow up?

you ‘doubt’ that Iran isn’t enriching its uranium to over 60% and isn’t developing a nuclear weapon. Wow!

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 11:40

tramtracks · 17/06/2025 11:35

you ‘doubt’ that Iran isn’t enriching its uranium to over 60% and isn’t developing a nuclear weapon. Wow!

This must be investigated in depth and, if found to be true, action must be taken by international organisations and not by the murderous Israeli regime. We can’t trust this in the hands of a regime commuting ethnic cleansing in front of the world. The world is unanimous is condemning them and the heat was beginning to burn so the timing of this Iran attack without detailed international investigations and actions by the United Nations is highly suspicious, especially as Zelensky last night revealed how Trump has been protecting Putin.
so yes, I do not trust this logic at all.

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 11:42

tramtracks · 17/06/2025 11:35

you ‘doubt’ that Iran isn’t enriching its uranium to over 60% and isn’t developing a nuclear weapon. Wow!

Also, what this has demonstrated is that other countries in the region and in Europe will want nukes too.

where does this madness stop? Only an international coalition should be permitted and no nation should be allowed to attack another sovereign nation unilaterally.

Dangermoo · 17/06/2025 14:36

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 10:05

It's called discussion. We're on a discussion board. The way it works is someone says something, then someone says something else.🤷‍♀️

If you think I'm following you around you're wrong. While I'm aware of some individual Mnetters, you're not one of them. Have we been on the same threads lately because I don't recognise your username?🙈

Edited

Oh please.

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 15:17

Looks like I'm living rent free in someone's head.😆

sualipa · 17/06/2025 17:02

Netanhayu is not any Iranian's friend as nuch as he would like to asert he is.

‘This War Is Not Helping Us’
Members of Iran’s opposition want change, and fear for their lives.
By Arash Azizi

https://archive.ph/c1CiV#selection-581.0-597.11

“I know that war won’t bring democracy,” she told me. She was active in the Women, Life, Freedom movement against compulsory veiling in 2022–23, and she told me that Netanyahu is no champion of the movement’s values. “The life that we wanted is the mirror opposite of the terrible events that are now happening,” she said. But the war hadn’t endeared Iran’s leadership to her, either—she blames its aggressive policies for the country’s predicament.

That Iran has a substantial population opposed to its system of government is well known and has been oft-proved through cycles of protest and repression. The Women, Life, Freedom movement was one dramatic iteration. It followed economically motivated protests in 2017–19, the sweeping pro-democracy Green Movement in 2009–10, a student uprising in 1999, and an electorally based movement for reform covering nearly all the years since 1997. Iranians have been outspoken inside the country and across an ever-growing diaspora against the Islamic Republic’s human-rights abuses, constriction of personal freedoms, economic mismanagement, and belligerent foreign policy.

For years, the debate outside Iran was theoretical: Would a military strike on the country help its people topple a hated regime, or would it cause even oppositionists to rally ’round the flag in their nation’s defense? Now the answer to this question is being determined by the hour, and it is neither binary nor simple. Even ardent anti-regime activists I spoke with were hard-pressed to support Israeli attacks that have already killed almost 200 civilians, according to Iran’s health ministry. Some had cheered the killings of certain repressive military figures in the early hours of the strikes, but the mood has since turned to terror, the priority simple survival.

Kar told me she blames Khamenei for having made an enemy out of Israel for decades. But she made clear that Netanyahu is no friend to Iran’s freedom fighters. “Nobody I spoke to in Iran supports these attacks,” she said. “People are angry, and they hate the Islamic Republic. But they now probably hate Mr. Netanyahu and his military policies even more.”

Israel’s campaign could yet rattle the Iranian regime into some kind of change in behavior or composition. But the notion that air strikes will lead to a popular uprising, or that Iranian activists for freedom will support a devastating war on their homeland, appears to be little more than a fantasy.

mids2019 · 17/06/2025 17:46

I think looking at the gradual change of stance of the US the regime could be fine by the weekend. There are no good moves for the Iranian government.

I think there should now be discussion about interim governance in Iran and how it's neighbours can help. I don't know how many opposition groups are any where near ready to take power (other than the remanants of the milotary).

Iran has a great deal of natural resource so in the long term this could be good for the country if handled carefully.

OP posts:
tramtracks · 17/06/2025 17:56

mids2019 · 17/06/2025 17:46

I think looking at the gradual change of stance of the US the regime could be fine by the weekend. There are no good moves for the Iranian government.

I think there should now be discussion about interim governance in Iran and how it's neighbours can help. I don't know how many opposition groups are any where near ready to take power (other than the remanants of the milotary).

Iran has a great deal of natural resource so in the long term this could be good for the country if handled carefully.

Yes. And cod be very good for Palestinians too. If Hamas’s funding line from Iran is severed. All big ifs of course.

mids2019 · 17/06/2025 18:04

Indeed Hamas may realise it has literally no allies and source of funding so their leadership may attempt to just face away........

Iran is a beautiful country and its people deserve better than an Islamist terror group leading them.

OP posts:
HellsBalls · 17/06/2025 18:14

mids2019 · 17/06/2025 17:46

I think looking at the gradual change of stance of the US the regime could be fine by the weekend. There are no good moves for the Iranian government.

I think there should now be discussion about interim governance in Iran and how it's neighbours can help. I don't know how many opposition groups are any where near ready to take power (other than the remanants of the milotary).

Iran has a great deal of natural resource so in the long term this could be good for the country if handled carefully.

We can only hope that the Iranian government see sense.
They could go quietly, or put up a fight, but they are going one way or another.

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:18

mids2019 · 17/06/2025 17:46

I think looking at the gradual change of stance of the US the regime could be fine by the weekend. There are no good moves for the Iranian government.

I think there should now be discussion about interim governance in Iran and how it's neighbours can help. I don't know how many opposition groups are any where near ready to take power (other than the remanants of the milotary).

Iran has a great deal of natural resource so in the long term this could be good for the country if handled carefully.

How's that going to work the ex head of MI5 says it will be a balkanisation and vicious battle for power in the ruins of the regime. With those holding the guns holding the power.

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:25

https://archive.ph/1ICbQ

FT : Netanyahu is good at starting wars, but it’s ending them that matters
The Israeli prime minister has consistently misread the region since the 1980s, dooming it to endless cycles of violence

But the Israeli prime minister has a dismal record when it comes to turning military victories into long-term diplomatic successes and an even worse record of understanding the region around him. Over the past 20 months, Netanyahu has consistently refused to take the win — whether the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the ceasefire in Lebanon, or overtures from Syria’s new leaders. Instead he has continued to strike Lebanon at will and hit Syria, while the rest of the region is actively helping both governments to stabilise and rebuild their nations. Israel has also seized a 400 sq km demilitarised buffer zone inside Syria, indefinitely.

The cruelest irony of the current moment is that 40 years ago, at the height of the Iran-Iraq war, Netanyahu was an Israeli diplomat in the US where he advocated selling weapons to Iran to avoid an all-out Iraqi victory. That war ended in a stalemate and the Islamic Republic survived.

This is where the two men are likely to diverge: where Netanyahu wants Iranian capitulation and even regime change, Trump has said he wants a nuclear deal with Iran. The US president should be extremely wary of heeding Netanyahu’s siren call to make Iran and the Middle East great again, with just a few more strikes, and then a few more.

There has been a lot of awe about Israel’s spectacular opening blows against Iran and Mossad may have more tricks up its sleeve. But wars are judged by how they conclude — and Netanyahu has shown he doesn’t know how to bring war to a close.

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:37

A compelling account featuring multiple insider perspectives on Trump’s evolving appetite for military engagement.

https://archive.ph/V1Zfr

When he woke on Friday morning, his favorite TV channel, Fox News, was broadcasting wall-to-wall imagery of what it was portraying as Israel’s military genius. And Mr. Trump could not resist claiming some credit for himself.
In phone calls with reporters, Mr. Trump began hinting that he had played a bigger behind-the-scenes role in the war than people realized. Privately, he told some confidants that he was now leaning toward a more serious escalation: going along with Israel’s earlier request that the United States deliver powerful bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordo.

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 18:40

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:37

A compelling account featuring multiple insider perspectives on Trump’s evolving appetite for military engagement.

https://archive.ph/V1Zfr

When he woke on Friday morning, his favorite TV channel, Fox News, was broadcasting wall-to-wall imagery of what it was portraying as Israel’s military genius. And Mr. Trump could not resist claiming some credit for himself.
In phone calls with reporters, Mr. Trump began hinting that he had played a bigger behind-the-scenes role in the war than people realized. Privately, he told some confidants that he was now leaning toward a more serious escalation: going along with Israel’s earlier request that the United States deliver powerful bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordo.

Trump desperately needs to win something after what he has unleashed on his own people in the USA.

MAGA are just about exploding (or should that be imploding?) and he is not fooling anyone.

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:44

Live Flight Radar just now !

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?
Dangermoo · 17/06/2025 18:45

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 15:17

Looks like I'm living rent free in someone's head.😆

Funny how you don't recognise my username but mentioned my posts from the GB News thread. Don't tag me again, please and I will do the same.

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:46

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 18:40

Trump desperately needs to win something after what he has unleashed on his own people in the USA.

MAGA are just about exploding (or should that be imploding?) and he is not fooling anyone.

One plane , one bunker buster bomb , all the credit - probably Trump's thinking just now -with Viagra as an aperitif !

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 19:02

Dangermoo · 17/06/2025 18:45

Funny how you don't recognise my username but mentioned my posts from the GB News thread. Don't tag me again, please and I will do the same.

No I didn't.

Anyway I AS'd the last GBN thread i was on and it was two weeks ago. Two weeks!🤯 You think I remember everyone I've ever been on a thread with?

Catch yerself on.😆

Dangermoo · 17/06/2025 19:06

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 19:02

No I didn't.

Anyway I AS'd the last GBN thread i was on and it was two weeks ago. Two weeks!🤯 You think I remember everyone I've ever been on a thread with?

Catch yerself on.😆

Bye 👋

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 19:15

sualipa · 17/06/2025 18:46

One plane , one bunker buster bomb , all the credit - probably Trump's thinking just now -with Viagra as an aperitif !

He is deranged. I hope the No Kings movement gains momentum.

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 21:45

Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 19:15

He is deranged. I hope the No Kings movement gains momentum.

He's been deranged for ages.😆

Now he is in serious cognitive decline as well as being deranged. Recently he's mistaken the UK for the EU. He nodded off at his bigly birthday parade. He goes off on terrible rambling weaves when he's supposed to be being the POTUS. And he's fucking up American/ global economy and security.

Trump is acting increasingly foolish. Putin and Netenyahu are taking advantage of this.😬

tramtracks · 17/06/2025 21:53

Quite interesting to look at flight radar this evening and see that the only plane flying in and out of Iran was a Chinese flight - originally destined for Luxembourg but ‘diverted’ to Iran. Big enough to carry weapons. Also big enough to taxi the leadership to safety…

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