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Conflict in the Middle East

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

369 replies

mids2019 · 16/06/2025 20:21

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

OP posts:
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Amplepombear · 17/06/2025 22:07

TooBigForMyBoots · 17/06/2025 21:45

He's been deranged for ages.😆

Now he is in serious cognitive decline as well as being deranged. Recently he's mistaken the UK for the EU. He nodded off at his bigly birthday parade. He goes off on terrible rambling weaves when he's supposed to be being the POTUS. And he's fucking up American/ global economy and security.

Trump is acting increasingly foolish. Putin and Netenyahu are taking advantage of this.😬

I strongly recommend that people read up why we have been ‘exempted’ from tariffs.
A. A large number of the major U.K. business are already owned by US companies so they can’t tax their own, can they?
B. Trump knows this and will use this to try to keep UK on a leash to see how much he can push us. One step out of line, and the temperamental child will throw an almighty tantrum and impose tariffs.

Whatsinanamehey · 17/06/2025 22:15

tramtracks · 17/06/2025 21:53

Quite interesting to look at flight radar this evening and see that the only plane flying in and out of Iran was a Chinese flight - originally destined for Luxembourg but ‘diverted’ to Iran. Big enough to carry weapons. Also big enough to taxi the leadership to safety…

That would take an interesting turn. Khomeini was already lulled into a false sense of security by Netanyahu and Trump before the attack on Friday. He might not want to take his chances again.

Jumpupjumphigh · 18/06/2025 07:39

I don't get it. Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender", but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM? From retaliating when Israel attack them?

So they're supposed to just sit there while Israel bomb the shit out of them and not do anything?

tramtracks · 18/06/2025 08:08

SharonEllis · 16/06/2025 21:25

Unfortunately there is avery long tradition of 'anti-imperialist' lefties in thrall to any group or government that is anti west, particularly anti-American, and anti-Israel. Iran is the epitome. Read What's Left by Nick Cohen for some of the background to this tendency. I mean who would think British people would see Hamas as legitimate resistance?

Yes - exactly. This anti west rhetoric seems to have been gathering pace. The west is without doubt not perfect / but it is as near as it gets for women.

sualipa · 18/06/2025 08:20

Whatsinanamehey · 17/06/2025 22:15

That would take an interesting turn. Khomeini was already lulled into a false sense of security by Netanyahu and Trump before the attack on Friday. He might not want to take his chances again.

I've a hunch China will be looking at how they could profitably play a post regime situation and doubly so since the previous obvious candidate was the US who is away with the fairies. A stable power with a huge source of hydrocarbons, minerals would be a good fit for them. The US no longer has any strategic depth to their foreign policy just the latest whims of the orange one.

ComeAsYouAreAsAFriend · 18/06/2025 08:21

Jumpupjumphigh · 18/06/2025 07:39

I don't get it. Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender", but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM? From retaliating when Israel attack them?

So they're supposed to just sit there while Israel bomb the shit out of them and not do anything?

but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM?

I am assuming the Ayotollah stands down, their nuclear sites inspected and decommissioned. I am looking forward to seeing how close "to the point of no return" Iran was in developing nuclear capability. I am also interested to see what the plan is once this happens, how does Iran manage their regime change who takes charge etc

tramtracks · 18/06/2025 08:56

Jumpupjumphigh · 18/06/2025 07:39

I don't get it. Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender", but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM? From retaliating when Israel attack them?

So they're supposed to just sit there while Israel bomb the shit out of them and not do anything?

Stepping back from the nuclear weapons program.
Israel isn’t bombing the hell out of them. It’s targeting known nuclear research and storage facilities.

the removal of the regime in Iran would but a bonus for Israel but it’s not their aim through this bombing campaign

Iran is governed by a brutal dictatorship - they govern by fear, murder, mutilation. It’s horrific for anyone disagreeing. I’m not sure how else this leadership could be removed. Some sort of population uprising???

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 09:09

Going back to OP's question How long until the Iranian regime collapses, I think it will be soon now that the Ayatollah Khomeini has rejected Donald Trump's demand for unconditional surrender.

Khomeini has said on social media "The battle begins" so I imagine Trump will take that as an invitation and Khomeini will be dead soon.

1dayatatime · 18/06/2025 09:09

@Jumpupjumphigh

"I don't get it. Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender", but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM"

It's really not difficult to understand.

Unconditional surrender means just that - the Government steps down from power and surrenders to the other side who then get to decide who is in power.

Have a look at the history of what happened in the unconditional surrender of Germany or the unconditional surrender of Japan etc etc

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 09:13

The removal without a replacement can indeed be very dangerous.

Just to give an example, a year or so after Gaddafi was ousted I bumped into a Libyan acquaintance. She told me things had been tough for her recently as a close family member had been kidnapped in Libya and was being held for ransom. Naturally, I was aghast and asked her what the police were doing to help them. She said 'what police? There is lawlessness in Libya'

Admittedly, i am not aware of the intricate details of what happened after Gaddafi's fall, but i think some people might be viewing a regime fall with rose tinted glasses. Saying that i wish the very best for the people of Iran and wish better leaders for them. I'm just very sceptical that the current effort will necessarily be better for them.

1dayatatime · 18/06/2025 09:14

Ironically the quickest and best way for the Iranian people to preserve their country, their infrastructure, their oil based economy and even their nuclear weapons programme is to depose the current Islamic regime and replace with a Government that is friendlier to the West.

Israel (or potentially the US ) would then have no just cause to continue the conflict.

dogcatkitten · 18/06/2025 09:18

I think Iran will survive whatever happens, If Israel tries to put in a puppet government that won't last long. There will be resistance all over and a war of attrition against any occupying army. Iran may agree terms with Israel/US and may give up their nuclear ambitions or that may remain secret and hidden underground. And then there is Russia that supports Iran, if they settle the war with Ukraine they may become interested in defending or liberating Iran. Iran has been through many wars and survived.

Amplepombear · 18/06/2025 09:22

1dayatatime · 18/06/2025 09:14

Ironically the quickest and best way for the Iranian people to preserve their country, their infrastructure, their oil based economy and even their nuclear weapons programme is to depose the current Islamic regime and replace with a Government that is friendlier to the West.

Israel (or potentially the US ) would then have no just cause to continue the conflict.

Do you really believe Netenyahu, a war criminal, is looking for a just cause?

dogcatkitten · 18/06/2025 09:25

ComeAsYouAreAsAFriend · 18/06/2025 08:21

but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM?

I am assuming the Ayotollah stands down, their nuclear sites inspected and decommissioned. I am looking forward to seeing how close "to the point of no return" Iran was in developing nuclear capability. I am also interested to see what the plan is once this happens, how does Iran manage their regime change who takes charge etc

We better hope not too close or there may be a big bang at some point or a huge lethal leakage of radiation if Israel and the US keep targeting nuclear sites. Or if they do actually have any they may launch them at Israel if pushed to it.

Amplepombear · 18/06/2025 10:55

France’s Macron just now. It seems like Trump lied to them all yesterday and none of the rest of the G7 like it.

Quote from the article: French President Emmanuel Macron said that "the biggest mistake today would be trying to change the regime in Iran through military means." He added that "it seems there has been a change in Trump's opinion on Iran since yesterday. I believe Trump is putting pressure on Iran. I believe we need to return to the negotiating table with Iran."

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rgjct19n1

Macron: 'Regime change in Iran through military means would be a mistake'

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rgjct19n1

1dayatatime · 18/06/2025 11:06

@Amplepombear

"Do you really believe Netenyahu, a war criminal, is looking for a just cause?"

Whether I do or whether you don't is irrelevant as is emotionally irrationality.

What is relevant is whether the US will keep supplying Israel with the ordinance required to keep bombing Iran.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:28

1dayatatime · 18/06/2025 09:14

Ironically the quickest and best way for the Iranian people to preserve their country, their infrastructure, their oil based economy and even their nuclear weapons programme is to depose the current Islamic regime and replace with a Government that is friendlier to the West.

Israel (or potentially the US ) would then have no just cause to continue the conflict.

Who on earth would now trust anything the us says?
they’ve just shown that you can be sitting at the table negotiating with them and, while you’re looking for a compromise, they are playing for time to kill you.
We are in very dark times now. Trust is gone. International laws are gone. The strongest and most violent wins. Thank you US and Israel for getting us here…

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:34

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:28

Who on earth would now trust anything the us says?
they’ve just shown that you can be sitting at the table negotiating with them and, while you’re looking for a compromise, they are playing for time to kill you.
We are in very dark times now. Trust is gone. International laws are gone. The strongest and most violent wins. Thank you US and Israel for getting us here…

Yes, you carry on mistrusting the UK's biggest ally.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:37

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:34

Yes, you carry on mistrusting the UK's biggest ally.

When you ally goes nuts, yes, you should stop trusting them.
And if you can and you care for them, you should stop them.

sualipa · 18/06/2025 12:39

Things I never knew until now !

Saudi Arabia, until recently, banned all non-Islamic religious practices in public, including Judaism.
There are no synagogues in the country.
Entry was historically difficult for Jewish individuals or those with Israeli passports.

According to estimates, between 17,000 and 25,000 Iranian Jews are living mostly in larger cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Hamedan and Tabriz.
Next to Israel, Iran has the largest number of people of the Jewish faith in the Middle East. Iran’s parliament, the Majlis, has one reserved seat for the Jewish community.
In Isfahan, one of the city’s most prominent synagogues is located next to a mosque called Al Aqsa, and in Tehran, there are at least 50 synagogues spread across the city.
The Jewish community also runs a hospital in Tehran that caters to all patients regardless of their religious affiliation.
Jewish ties to the country date back as far as 2,700 years ago, Younes Hamami Lalehzar, a senior rabbi at Abrishami Synagogue in Tehran, once told me in an interview.
It is believed that Jewish heroine Esther and her uncle, Mordechai, are buried in the western city of Hamedan. According to Jewish biblical text, Esther was married to the Persian king, Xerxes.
In more recent history, the country gave safe haven to Jews who fled the Spanish Inquisition. During German Nazi leader Adolf Hitler’s rampage of Europe, Polish Jews sought refuge in Iran.
But there have also been periods of unrest, such as the forced conversion of Jews to Islam during the Safavid and Qajar era, and the migration of thousands of Iranian Jews to the US and Israel following the 1979 Islamic revolution.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHV1QUs-BA4

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:44

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:37

When you ally goes nuts, yes, you should stop trusting them.
And if you can and you care for them, you should stop them.

Yes because heaven forbid if WW3 broke out, we wouldn't need America's help.

sualipa · 18/06/2025 12:46

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:44

Yes because heaven forbid if WW3 broke out, we wouldn't need America's help.

Under Trump that's not a given.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:47

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:44

Yes because heaven forbid if WW3 broke out, we wouldn't need America's help.

Amer is too big. WW3 cannot start now without America’s help.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:48

sualipa · 18/06/2025 12:46

Under Trump that's not a given.

The obsession and hatred for Trump reminds me why Reform have gained such traction. Liberals are too busy worrying about the the wrong enemy.