How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

[mids2019]

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

When I get my brain from the Wizard I shall return !

I'm not sure putting something into ChatGPT counts as fact checking.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ayatollah-khamenei-may-fall-but-theres-no-telling-what-could-come-next/

An article seemingly a rehash of the Financial Times piece I posted earlier suggests that the IRGC would be the main beneficiary if the leadership were decapitated. The hesitation shown by most Western leaders reflects the massive impact that chaos in Iran could have across the region. And they’re absolutely right to be concerned.

“The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the G7 summit in Canada.

“Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003… or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!” Macron said.

Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow clerical leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ ideological force or the Iranian military.

Analysts at the US-based think tank Soufan Center said that with the survival of the Iranian regime now viewed as a “strategic failure,” the prospect of an “Iraq 2.0” is looming.

“The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilization on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications,” they said.

Is that how she came to completely make up a quote for me? 🤣

'Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record'

When I said no such thing. Definitely need a word with that wizard.

No that was my qoute that I "made up" then got ChatGPT fact checked - quite a rabbit hole. ! Anyway I'm off doing my good deed for the day going to see my best friend's 90 year old mother and take her out for the day. So I won't be posting for a while.

Maybe you should consider doing your own research instead of getting super predictive text to do it for you and taking everything it says at face value.

Right, well please dont put words into people's mouths. Its completely out of order and a waste of everybody's time.

It is when it gives you the answer you want.

…interesting what short memories people have when they chat about hie amazing the Campbell podcast is… - overheard in a Gail’s in Islington.

Absolutely detest the bloke. He's just in front of Owen Jones on the odious front.

We agree - loathsome creature with His dodgy dossier and hounding of Dr Kelly maybe his depression is some deep buried conscience haunting him in the early hours of the morning. Owen, bless one of the good guys who wears his heart on his sleeve -YMMV !

Err no I didn't I wrote my reply and then as an aside thought I will "fact check" MY opinion which I had just written - Chat then "fact checked" that - not whatever your opinion was. My point, such as it was was Saddam wasn't the progenitor of the intifada but sought to profit from it's popularity of of a section of the miltant Arab street by showering some of his oil cash with the familes of suicide bombers. Not good by a long shot any way you look at it - I think we can agree on that.

Moving on .....

That is a nasty take on mental health . He suffered with depression before.

Oh I see, so you were basically debating with yourself. Okkaay. Don't reply to me or tag me please.

Don't worry I've decided to give MN a rest for the forseeable.

Don't let them hound you out, i appreciate your posts 🥰

Agree with @Whatsinanamehey if people don't want to be tagged they need to stop posting on a forum that allows it. No need for those rude posts

Agreeing too, Sualipa your posts are insightful, intelligent and informative (and your quips are funny too!).

Haha yes, sualipa's posts definitely make me miss the laugh button.

Thanks both of you for your support much appreciated - truth be told I'm working at Glastonbury for the next 2 weeks (wahey !) mostly after festival so I'll pretty much be having a digital detox anyway - there's the Palestinian Circus there and an ambient Gaza project I hope to catch and of course Kneecap on the BBC Saturday 4pm. GFL is a a big supporter of Greenpeace, Oxfam and Water Aid which given the biblical plagues the Israelis are inflicting in Gaza now including drought seems particuarly poignant. Owen Jones , Ash Sarker an most of the Novara Media crowd are there as well so hope to catch them.

https://www.ambientgaza.org/

Artist Statement

We're honoured that Ambient Gaza is gaining traction, including being part of this year's Glastonbury Festival. It's more than a booking — it's a bold signal of solidarity with our message: a refusal to erase, a call for peaceful resistance, and a recognition of the humanity and rights of Palestinians in the face of one of the gravest atrocities of our time.

As the world tips further into corruption and instability, we believe art still holds power — to witness, to connect, and to break through oppression with quiet, resonant truths. Ambient Gaza is our offering to that movement: sound as solidarity, listening as resistance.

Gaza is going through a genocide, live. We are being gaslit by our leaders and news media, who want us to just ignore the fact that they are participating in genocide. People around the world are desperate for ways to support and respond to the crisis, and ways to show solidarity with Palestinian people. This is one of the ways we can respond. Buy the album, follow the project on instagram, and share the project with as many people as possible.

I just had a shudder.

Genuinely curious, how old are you?

This is bordering on bullying now

Why is it?

I’ve had loads of pro Palestine supporters all jumping on me on threads including you.

Sometimes I’ve asked individuals to stop tagging me because I don’t like having to defend myself against several people all at the same time, but I haven’t used the bullying word. Any actual personal attacks need to be reported.

@sualipa just wants to have a break for a bit and that’s fair enough. I think we should all respect that decision and I’m sure they will return to the debates at a later point.