How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

[mids2019]

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

It is concerning to see on SM.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: if your goal is to reduce Iran to a failed state a place where millions are left scrambling for the bare essentials, where survival becomes a brutal, daily struggle, and where armed militias carve up the country into chaos then by all means, will it into being. But don’t pretend it’s out of compassion or concern for the Iranian people. History has shown, time and again, that such claims ring hollow. The consequences of these actions are never borne by those who push the narrative they are borne by ordinary people, caught in the wreckage. So let’s stop pretending. If destruction is the goal, at least be honest about it.

The author is former chief of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN

If the Islamic regime does fall at some point, then we shouldn’t expect a liberal pro-western government to emerge. Without a well-armed opposition inside the country, elements of the armed forces are best placed to emerge on top in any fight for power. They would learn the lessons of past failures and perhaps pose less of a threat abroad, but what limited freedoms exist in Iran might be closed further.
The alternative is fragmentation, as happened in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Somalia. In Iran, such a process would be on a much bigger scale as Kurds, Arabs, Baluch, even the well-integrated Azeris, fall back on ethnic nationalism in a country where Persians form barely a majority of the population. One lesson from recent decades is that the fall of repressive regimes doesn’t always lead to a better outcome, as there is no one to hold to account, and terrorist groups will thrive in ungoverned space. Iraq has finally emerged as a better place, but it has taken 20 years since Saddam Hussein was ousted, even with the country’s huge oil wealth.

https://archive.ph/elano#selection-2177.0-2177.61

Would it be fair to say that places where regime change worked out well fall out of the news quite quickly?
Imelda Marcos and her shoe collection… weren’t they deposed in a coup? And it’s been successful since.
Indonesia is doing better, I think.

But they aren’t in the news as a result.

Spot on @sualipa

And one further point: I wonder how many of those who have convinced themselves that immigration is the root of all our problems, and lie awake at night in righteous outrage about the Small Boats, are able to connect the dots with what effect another failed state in the middle east is likely to have on migration patterns.

Another astute, intelligent and well thought out post by @sualipa.

This is far from a simple situation. I only wish others would think about the potential consequences of what might be about to occur like she does, rather than thinking that lobbing a few thousand tons of laser guided munitions are going to achieve.

That was a case of one U.S.-backed puppet being replaced by another essentially a changing of the guard, not a liberation. In Iran, things are even more complex and dangerous. The weapons and power are firmly in the hands of regime forces, and any real struggle for control will play out among those already entrenched in the system not in peaceful protests or street movements. Any illusions of soft, flower-strewn revolutions will be crushed with brutal efficiency.

Ordinary people will be the ones who suffer most. They already are.

If external actors push Iran toward collapse, they should understand that the aftermath won’t be democratic renewal it will be chaos. A power vacuum filled by armed factions, economic freefall, and the erosion of civil society. And amid the wreckage, many Iranians may come to resent not just their former regime, but those foreign powers including Israel that helped bring about their poverty and societal disintegration.

These warnings aren’t wild speculation. When even a former head of MI5 raises such concerns, it should be taken seriously. People in such positions don’t speak lightly or without reason they know exactly what collapse looks like, and who pays the price.

Of course, Israel may see such an outcome as advancing its security interests and perhaps with good reason. But as I’ve said, be honest about that. Acknowledge the strategic motives and be willing to accept the possible even probable consequences of such actions, especially for the people who will be left to live with the fallout.

🤣🤣🤣
I’m sorry, nothing of value to add to the thread but this did make me laugh as Russia invaded Ukraine there were umpteen threads about holidaying in Finland/Lapland.

If that collapse does happen, no one could blame any Iranian for seeking refuge elsewhere. When a state falls apart, people flee it’s human nature. We’ve seen this before. The collapse of the Soviet Union didn’t bring lasting freedom; it gave rise to Putin and the emergence of a gangster state. Iran would be no different. Left to fend for itself amid chaos, it would be a fractured nation sitting on some of the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves ripe for exploitation, vulnerable to internal power grabs, and abandoned by those who once claimed to support its people.

For the policy wonks and history buffs among us, Adam Curtis’s Traumazone is an absolute must-watch. Spanning over seven hours, it’s one of the most powerful documentaries I’ve ever seen. Using 10,000 hours of BBC archival footage, it tells the raw, unfiltered story of the Soviet Union’s collapse and the brutal aftermath a descent into chaos that ultimately gave rise to Putin. It's available on YouTube, and it’s a sobering reminder of what happens when a superpower unravels.

Regime change in Iran is incredibly dangerous for the rest of the world and the whole region, especially countries that have faced the brunt of migration post-Iraq war like the U.K. USA was not one of them and U.K. must back negotiation if we don’t want another zillion refugees seeking new lands soon.

Somebody told you that?🤯
And you believed them?🤯🤯
Why?🤯🤯🤯

This is where GB not News gets you. People blindly parroting untrue, non factual nonsense and others believing it.🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

So it begins and she is cheering it on...

https://x.com/NiohBerg/status/1934708226588856711

Nothing has begun FFS.

I cannot believe the insanity.

in the meantime, Zelensky has just confirmed what we suspected ages ago: it is the U.S. protecting Putin’s lifeline.

When people say Kurdistan is occupied, this is what they mean. Kurdish regions are full of military outposts and infrastructure. Normally, this is intended to repress the population. Now, it means Kurdish civilians are on the front line of a war they have nothing to do with.

This is why Kurdish parties condemned both the Israeli attacks and Iranian repression. They don’t want to be bombed or shot at or disappeared or executed in prison, they want to live in peace and govern themselves.

https://nitter.net/_____mjb/status/1934548591827464429#m

Ferdinando Marcos was deposed in a coup that came from within the Phillipines.

What's happening with Israel and Iran is the opposite of that. If the regime falls, it will not result in more democracy and human rights. It will descend into chaos for the entire region and then the most violent group will rise to the top.

Netenyahu is proving himself the biggest threat to Israel's existence.

A feminist organisation around the Iranian diaspora.

https://feminists4jina.net/about-us

We condemn the military assault on Iran by the fundamentalist and fascist Israeli regime. This act of war has nothing to do with freedom or justice. What emerges from missiles and bombs is not liberation, but death, destruction, poverty, and intensified repression. War destroys the very foundations of life and pushes back grassroots struggles for justice, equality, and freedom by decades. The experiences of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria in this very region clearly show that the militarism of global imperial powers leads only to devastation. A war-torn Iran would be no exception.

While mainstream media try to portray these attacks as “targeted” and “necessary,” they deliberately ignore the human toll—the destruction of everyday life and the social harm caused by war. The media speak only of officials killed, not the casualties and damage suffered by civilians in attacks on residential areas, making them complicit in these crimes. (So far, just hours after the attack, reports indicate 78 people killed and 300 injured.) What is unfolding in Iran today continues the same project seen in Palestine: the normalization of genocide and crimes against the people.

As a feminist collective, we refuse to remain silent in the face of the war crimes, genocide, and imperial violence perpetrated by the fascist regimes of Israel, the United States, and their allies—violence that actively undermines and sets back our central struggle against the dictatorship and the regressive forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Our struggle is against both poles of repression and domination, whether domestic or global.

The future we envision is not built on the ruins and corpses left from wars imposed by reactionary forces, but forged through the people’s just struggle, grounded in the principle of Women–Life–Freedom.

I don't think a single person is surprised by this revelation.

I think the puzzle is almost solving itself now, isn’t it?

Israel is propped up and supported by the U.S., Putin is not losing his vital support as it is protected by the U.S.
And Trump has been desperate to get his hands on Greenland.

I don’t even need to write anything anymore. We can obviously see the pattern already.
This insanity must stop now.

🙄

Depends on whether the population take Netanyahu's bait or not. Despite its political problems, iranian society can be pretty cohesive when it feels under threat and if there's no clear and better alternative then I personally doubt the general population will be keen to overthrow the current lot. Especially if Khamenei is left untouched.

A power vacuum in its current state would only make things worse for the everyday Iranian.

I'm appalled at Israel's behaviour and can't believe that international bodies haven't been more outspoken against Netanyahu's warfare and bloodlust. This is not to say that Iran is an innocent party, far from it, but I find it interesting that this all ramped up the moment it looked like Iran and USA might start forging a better relationship.

I feel Netanyahu felt emboldened after the meek international response to his genocidal campaign against Gaza and he's now decided to just unleash his military wherever he sees fit.

Last note - anyone else notice how somehow the Iranian targets were so well contained whereas the IDF has somehow felt the need to raze Gaza to the ground?

[I in no way hold Jews accountable for the actions of the Israeli government and armed forces. Full disclosure I am half iranian but no anti semite]

And U.K. and Europe will pay the price when tens of millions of refugees head our way again.

Is that Trump’s and his backers’ plan all along?

I have to say I'm not convinced Trump wanted this at all. It seems he campaigned to keep Khamenei alive and was at least somewhat resistant to the attack going ahead at all. He is many things but I don't think warmonger is one of them - in his first term he came across as somewhat war averse, probably since it's bad for business! But now that things have escalated I can imagine how he is now seeing the silver linings of the situation

You seem to have a high and highly unsubstantiated opinion of Trump. There is no silver lining in this situation. It is a war bilaterally started by a war criminal who is backed by the US and emboldened by the silence and complicity of the West.
the current regime of Iran came to be when USA and U.K. overthrew an elected PM in Iran.

Shudder to think what will come about if Netenyahu has a hand in it.

I have to say I’m finding it quite laughable that posters on here think Netanyahu would have taken out most of the Iranian regime without thinking about what will be in place afterwards. He’s not dumb. Iran will still be a risk if another extremist regime like the current one takes it’s place.

He’s been saying to the Iranian people for months that he’s giving them a chance to be free of the current regime. Mossad had been infiltrating Iran for decades as shown by the drone base etc.

The Iranian operation is called ‘Rising Lion’ which refers to the old Iranian flag before 1980. If you look into the history of Cyrus the Great and the Jews, the 50 years exile is quite symbolic 2500 years later. Actually gave me chills.

I don't have a high view of Trump, but I've seen several different articles along different political lines that align to what this one is saying.

You are correct that the usa was partly responsible for the original 1979 revolution due its participation in the coup d'etat against Mossadegh back in 1953. Missiling scientists in their homes and killing innocent bystanders is not really the USA's go to though, they prefer the sneaky politics instead