Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Conflict in the Middle East

Yikes, Israel might have just attacked Iran!

1000 replies

SomeWomanSomewhere · 13/06/2025 01:17

This is NOT GOOD news!

Israel has declared a state of emergency, at least six explosions in Tehran.

This is seriously unfunny!

Israel has ZERO strategic depth - Iran has plenty. Nukes: see above, reverse!

OP posts:
Thread gallery
62
BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 10:18

sualipa · 15/06/2025 09:59

Great analyis here in a long thread - tldr is regime won't fall but nukes will be off the table - only came across it because I follow Sebag Montiefore and he retweeted it.

  1. Iran can resist the US and Israel but not deter them 2. Iran's best option is compromise 3. Follies of the nuclear option 4. Regime change is unlikely

x.com/IranWonk/status/1933816845414388013

Thanks for the link, the author seems part of the think tank bubble. It's good if flawed analysis.

Iran has a stockpile of 20'000 missiles, they've been preparing for this for over 40 years.

On the first night Iran targeted air defence batteries in what is compared to last night was a light attack. Last night it was economic assets.

Remember Iranians endured the 8 year war with Iraq including the use of chemical weapons and they've survived 40 years of sanctions. These are an extremely resilient people who abhor external interference.

quantumbutterfly · 15/06/2025 10:18

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 09:06

Iran's Foreign Minister:

"We have received messages from various channels that the US has had no involvement in this attack, however, we do not believe this claim and have evidence that contradicts it." he writes on Telegram.
The next round of nuclear talks with the US could have opened the way for an agreement, he says, but he accuses Israel of sabotaging the discussion.

Would have, could have, should have...but didn't when they had ample opportunity.
Public posturing and private manoeuvring as per.....

sualipa · 15/06/2025 10:23

Jujujudo · 15/06/2025 10:02

I genuinely hoped that if anything good came out of this willy waving shitshow then it would be a regime change in Iran..

If you read the whole thread he thinks that Iran forgoing "the axis of resistance" , accepting dismantling of its nuke program with international inspectors, Trump's desire for a deal and the West's reluctance as to regime fall (same with Russia - NATO fears regime collapse c 1990 as for the chaos that may cause impacting geopolitical stability). Israel gets relative peace and an end to tormenting from aligned neighbours. Everyone should jump at this deal it's probably the best one that will emerge. Ceasefire in Gaza , letaid in and we can all forget about what has just happened.

He does mention apparently from insiders the Yitzhak Rabin threat.

Yikes, Israel might have just attacked Iran!
Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:30

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 09:50

Negotiation 😆 🤣 😂

What's so funny?

sualipa · 15/06/2025 10:34

What that chap retweets are fascinating and in a rabbit hole of info when I should be doing something else. He seems to have deep inside links with cohorts of the Iranian regime and army and says Iranians on the whole have no appetite for regime collapse and what that threat would entail and is followed by other senior think-tankers. Might be an echo chamber though!

marmaladeandpeanutbutter · 15/06/2025 10:43

@Twiglets1 I wouldn’t consider an Israel under Netanyahu an ally in any scenario.

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 10:44

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:30

What's so funny?

The idea that you think Iran wants peace and harmony.

sualipa · 15/06/2025 10:44

.

Yikes, Israel might have just attacked Iran!
Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:45

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 10:44

The idea that you think Iran wants peace and harmony.

You laughed at the word 'negotiations'
Countries have always used diplomatic means to end and prevent conflicts. This one doesn't have to be any different.

OnePlumQuail · 15/06/2025 10:46

sualipa · 15/06/2025 09:08

If the aim from Israel is regime change and they are close to that end point (who knows?) then game theory would suggest they need to unleash as much as they can of their inventory before taking the plane out to Moscow where they will live in the dictators village with the ill gotten gains they have manged to loot from the country. The thing is then it will be civil war in Iran probably leading to a failed state of 77 million souls and the blowback with refugees , looted weapons and nuclear material will be profound. Israel may well have achieved it's objective but at the expense of a ruined Iran and a severe blow to the world economy , the region and global stability. The west will stay out of backing sides they had their fingers badly burnt in Iraq and besides their high point of power has long gone. China might see an opportunity to back a side and help rebuild they need the resources and are it's biggest market after all. They won't care baout the stripe of nay leaders that might arise either. The Tiger marches on. We are at an epic pivot of power away from the West and Pax Americana.

Edited

Ah, yes, the West will just pack up and hand over the reins to China.

Doesn’t look much like a power shift when the same powers are totally running the show right now.

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:49

It's like the posters on this board who would argue there was no way that Israel could negotiate a ceasefire with Hamas because they are terrorists. They then went very quiet when it emerged that Israel had been working with and arming another ISIS type group in Gaza 🤷‍♀️

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 10:49

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:45

You laughed at the word 'negotiations'
Countries have always used diplomatic means to end and prevent conflicts. This one doesn't have to be any different.

I was never taken in by any of that bollocks either. There are some regimes, who simply do not want peace. Look how long it took to get to the Good Friday agreement.

sualipa · 15/06/2025 10:51

OnePlumQuail · 15/06/2025 10:46

Ah, yes, the West will just pack up and hand over the reins to China.

Doesn’t look much like a power shift when the same powers are totally running the show right now.

America elected Trump I rest my case.

MushMonster · 15/06/2025 10:54

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 10:44

The idea that you think Iran wants peace and harmony.

Calling for negotiations is not the same as thinking any of the sides want peace and harmony.....
Of course we need to put all the pressure and energy we have into pushing for these negotiations.

Does it look like we will have any in the near future? Nope. Both countries are going at it full on. But that does not mean the international community should stop calling for negotiations or that any poster should be picked on for that reason.

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:56

Israel: you are being so unreasonable to expect us to negotiate with Hamas!!

Also Israel: Abu Shabab habibi, we come in peace and bring you the gift of arms, please use wisely.

Make it make sense!

BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 10:57

sualipa · 15/06/2025 10:44

.

https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1933681077765263669

"An illustration of how much public opinion has changed on acquiring nukes inside Iran: a woman not wearing a hijab tonight in Tehran passionately demanding that the Islamic Republic build an atomic bomb. Those around her start yelling in agreement."

🫣

She also talks about Gaza. I think that a large miscalculation from think tankers is that they're underestimating the anger that ordinary people feel about the devastation that has been unleashed on Gaza. Social Media was eye-opening with Left, Right, Black, White, coming together.....

https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1933681077765263669

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 10:57

MushMonster · 15/06/2025 10:54

Calling for negotiations is not the same as thinking any of the sides want peace and harmony.....
Of course we need to put all the pressure and energy we have into pushing for these negotiations.

Does it look like we will have any in the near future? Nope. Both countries are going at it full on. But that does not mean the international community should stop calling for negotiations or that any poster should be picked on for that reason.

I'm not picking on a poster. Give over.

HellsBalls · 15/06/2025 10:59

@Golden407 ”US military analysts believe Iran has over 200,000 missiles ready to fire at Israel

@BelleHathor “Iran has a stockpile of 20'000 missiles”

Heading in the right direction, however the internet says 3000 before the action started.

BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 11:00

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 10:56

Israel: you are being so unreasonable to expect us to negotiate with Hamas!!

Also Israel: Abu Shabab habibi, we come in peace and bring you the gift of arms, please use wisely.

Make it make sense!

I miss the laughing emoji, the habibi was chefs kiss😄😁😅

MushMonster · 15/06/2025 11:01

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 10:57

I'm not picking on a poster. Give over.

No.
What about if you stop laughing at this matter? And putting words on other people's posts?
It is not funny. Neither the PP said she believed Iran wanted peace and harmony.

Whatsinanamehey · 15/06/2025 11:02

BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 11:00

I miss the laughing emoji, the habibi was chefs kiss😄😁😅

🤣🤣

Dangermoo · 15/06/2025 11:04

MushMonster · 15/06/2025 11:01

No.
What about if you stop laughing at this matter? And putting words on other people's posts?
It is not funny. Neither the PP said she believed Iran wanted peace and harmony.

Get a grip. I'm not laughing at matter I'm laughing at a poster's naivety.

Nowayyousure · 15/06/2025 11:07

BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 10:57

https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1933681077765263669

"An illustration of how much public opinion has changed on acquiring nukes inside Iran: a woman not wearing a hijab tonight in Tehran passionately demanding that the Islamic Republic build an atomic bomb. Those around her start yelling in agreement."

🫣

She also talks about Gaza. I think that a large miscalculation from think tankers is that they're underestimating the anger that ordinary people feel about the devastation that has been unleashed on Gaza. Social Media was eye-opening with Left, Right, Black, White, coming together.....

More reasons for Iran not to have nuclear weapons.

Funding terrorists for years, destabilising yeman, Lebanon and Gaza then shouting for nuclear weapons to use when Israel says enough.

Nuclear weapons should never be launched.

BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 11:07

HellsBalls · 15/06/2025 10:59

@Golden407 ”US military analysts believe Iran has over 200,000 missiles ready to fire at Israel

@BelleHathor “Iran has a stockpile of 20'000 missiles”

Heading in the right direction, however the internet says 3000 before the action started.

Well yesterday Netanyahu mentioned 20'000 ballastic missiles and I'll give him that, though he has a tendency to lie and has also mentioned the 2000 number

Israeli PM Netanyahu threatens further escalation against Iran:

– "Iran has 20,000 ballistic missiles and we cannot tolerate this."

– "You will soon see Israeli Air Force planes hitting every regime location and target in the skies of Tehran."

– "What we have done so far in Iran cannot be compared to what we will do in the coming days."

Also the 200'000 number may include cheaply produced drones (advanced versions of the ones that helped Russia take over 20% of Ukraines territory and greatly reduced Russian casualties).

sualipa · 15/06/2025 11:13

BelleHathor · 15/06/2025 10:57

https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1933681077765263669

"An illustration of how much public opinion has changed on acquiring nukes inside Iran: a woman not wearing a hijab tonight in Tehran passionately demanding that the Islamic Republic build an atomic bomb. Those around her start yelling in agreement."

🫣

She also talks about Gaza. I think that a large miscalculation from think tankers is that they're underestimating the anger that ordinary people feel about the devastation that has been unleashed on Gaza. Social Media was eye-opening with Left, Right, Black, White, coming together.....

I don't think the overriding thought when Gaza is getting bombed by Israel is they think "thank Allah for that they are freeing us from Hamas oppression" .

Please create an account

To comment on this thread you need to create a Mumsnet account.

This thread is not accepting new messages.