Yikes, Israel might have just attacked Iran!

[SomeWomanSomewhere]

This is NOT GOOD news!

Israel has declared a state of emergency, at least six explosions in Tehran.

This is seriously unfunny!

Israel has ZERO strategic depth - Iran has plenty. Nukes: see above, reverse!

In our hearts....

I really hope the pleas from other countries for Iran and Israel to sit down and negotiate and "use their words" achieves something. Apparently it needs to happen within the next week. Until then I suppose it will just rumble on.

Prating for those to help.

I do hope they get to the table and stop.
But my logic brain says this time they will carry on.

Why couldn't Israel let the US and Iran negotiations continue? It could have possibly have led to a deal.

Iran's Foreign Minister:

"We have received messages from various channels that the US has had no involvement in this attack, however, we do not believe this claim and have evidence that contradicts it." he writes on Telegram.
The next round of nuclear talks with the US could have opened the way for an agreement, he says, but he accuses Israel of sabotaging the discussion.

Israel said from the start that this will be a matter of weeks, not days. So I'm afraid you might be right. Things are escalating at a pace I wasn't expecting and I'm hoping cooler heads will help to de-escalate.

@Golden407 You need a black and white filter to think there is only one problem in the world. Iran is undoubtedly one of them.

as far as I can see your link is a congressman accusing USAID at a Doge hearing?!!! Not proof if anything as the attack on USAID is entirely politically motivated by Trump & his cronies.Not proof of anything at all as his accusation was unevidenced. But even he said the funding was 'inadvertent'.
That said, Geopolitics is messy and complicated and ufortunately everyone makes alliances with unsavoury groups in the Middle East. Only an extremely ignorant innocent thinks otherwise. The United States has done wrong things and has made poor strategic choices. As has everyone else. Timing can be everything and hindsight is a wonderful thing.

That doesnt mean everyone is as bad as each other. So, no I dont think Iran is the only problem but by every metric you can think of its a massive problem. Do you want to live in a world shaped by Iran's values? Or would you be more comfortable in a society that looks like America or Israel or indeed India or any other flawed democracy?

If the aim from Israel is regime change and they are close to that end point (who knows?) then game theory would suggest they need to unleash as much as they can of their inventory before taking the plane out to Moscow where they will live in the dictators village with the ill gotten gains they have manged to loot from the country. The thing is then it will be civil war in Iran probably leading to a failed state of 77 million souls and the blowback with refugees , looted weapons and nuclear material will be profound. Israel may well have achieved it's objective but at the expense of a ruined Iran and a severe blow to the world economy , the region and global stability. The west will stay out of backing sides they had their fingers badly burnt in Iraq and besides their high point of power has long gone. China might see an opportunity to back a side and help rebuild they need the resources and are it's biggest market after all. They won't care baout the stripe of nay leaders that might arise either. The Tiger marches on. We are at an epic pivot of power away from the West and Pax Americana.

Or would you be more comfortable in a society that looks like America or Israel or indeed India or any other flawed democracy?

Is "not an chauvinist hellhole with more or less obvious fascistic tendencies" an option? Because I would seriously prefer to live in a society without any Trumps, Vances, Netanyahus, Smotriches, or Modis in charge!

So vote them out, make democracy work. Thats the possibility in a democracy. Nobody said it was easy. But imagine how much worse it would be if you were in Iran right now.

The Moon ?

This is my main problem with getting my head around this conflict. It has been reported, acknowledged in long interviews and recognised that Israel itself funded the start of Hamas.
Now, they have just been forced to recognise they are doing the same with other gangs in Gaza, which are related to IS and ISIS.
US recruited and trained Bin Laden, for example.
I think it is well overdue that we stop using criminals and terrorists against other groups. And stay out of a war today that only leads to another war tomorrow.
It does not work.
It costs civilians lives. It costs our soldiers lives. And ends up with big terror attacks on our own soil.
Why continue this stupidity?
I hope UK stays out of the whole, bar leading those negotiations.

Just ignore the jokes, Trump gave a speech in his first term about how at one point in Syria "Rebels aka Terrorists" funded by the CIA were firing against those funded by the State Department. It's why he "ended" the program in July 2017.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-40667229

Control of resources in the region.

Look at a map and not only is West Asia full of resources (Oil, Gas, Minerals) it is also the gateway of land and sea routes for trade especially from China.

Also see the Suez Canal.

So rich men in suita get richer, while the locals in the region end up collateral damage.

Not all in a suit are they? Some are in thawb/thobe etc.

Negotiation 😆 🤣 😂

Thanks, completely forgot about the GCC countries and their complicity in also funding terrorist groups and their billions in investments. They're just as guilty!

Great analyis here in a long thread - tldr is regime won't fall but nukes will be off the table - only came across it because I follow Sebag Montiefore and he retweeted it.

1. Iran can resist the US and Israel but not deter them 2. Iran's best option is compromise 3. Follies of the nuclear option 4. Regime change is unlikely

x.com/IranWonk/status/1933816845414388013

Absolute rubbish. Israel is a tiny country with a population of 9m surrounded by an entire ME of Islamists wishing to wipe them out. Shame on you for deliberately twisting history to suit your agenda. Why on earth would Israel want to fight its neighbours? To what end? There aren’t enough Jews in the entire world to even live within Israel!

Absolute rubbish and propaganda. None of your statements even make sense. Stop vilifying a tiny country of Jews and start looking around you at reality.

I genuinely hoped that if anything good came out of this willy waving shitshow then it would be a regime change in Iran..

I couldn't get past Jewish extremists!

This. People need to think.

Yes, I know the oil and control of the shipping routes are at the heart of our presence in ME and the many wars indeed. It is always the civilians who suffer, alongside the soldiers themselves. The players of the game just move to another country and a smaller house.

I just want UK to invest in renewables. Reduce the oil use. Re-build its manufacturing industry. Gain our real independance back. Then we do not need to get involved in all this shit show.

Maybe we should 'just stop oil ' to leave the middle east in peace. More forward thinking middle eastern regimes are already diversifying.