Yikes, Israel might have just attacked Iran!

[SomeWomanSomewhere]

This is NOT GOOD news!

Israel has declared a state of emergency, at least six explosions in Tehran.

This is seriously unfunny!

Israel has ZERO strategic depth - Iran has plenty. Nukes: see above, reverse!

@Whatsinanamehey

"You forgot India, Pakistan and North Korea. I do appreciate your humour in getting your point across though 😁"

Those bastard moles won't know what hit them! Purely self defence of course

Il be honest, I don't think Iran should have nuclear weapons and neither do I think Israel should.

I'm certainly no fan of the Iranian government. I do disagree that bombing them and potentially starting another war was the best course of action right now.

Judging by the comments here I don't think you even have to promise to be responsible with it, after all who are we terrible westerners to judge. Promise to attack Israel and everyone will either a. not believe you or b. be totally fine with it.

Are you suggesting Israel is doing something equal to, or worse than the Holocaust?

I think Freedland doesn't get it and is looking at it through the lens of Netanyahu always misrepresenting Israeli "successes". For example Hezbollah just won the majority of seats in the local elections in Lebanon.

Iraq is pertinent, Netanyahu famously said in 2002:

“There is no question whatsoever that Saddam is seeking, is working, is advancing towards to the development of nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said in 2002 testimony to Congress. “Once Saddam has nuclear weapons, the terror network will have nuclear weapons,”

Not only did Netanyahu get the nuclear issue wrong — Saddam was not building a nuclear program after all — but he incorrectly predicted that the war would inspire an Iranian democratic uprising that would topple the theocratic regime.

“If you take out Saddam, Saddam’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region,” Netanyahu claimed. “And I think that people sitting right next door in Iran, young people, and many others, will say the time of such regimes, of such despots is gone.”

Looking at the damage right now in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu's earlier statements about destroying most of Iran's missiles was wrong. He most probably told Trump a variation of the above and has just appealed to the Iranian people to overthrow their government, instead Iranians are out on the streets asking for more hit's against Israel.

How is the war in Gaza in any way comparable to the holocaust?

I get what people are saying but I still don’t want Iran to get nuclear weapons “because other nutty countries have them” because it would threaten global security. Ideally nobody would have nuclear weapons. The real problem with the nuclear weapons we have is that countries that were once sane . “responsible” and democratic are sliding into authoritarianism.

I think it is just horrible that, as a species, we spent all this money on weapons designed to utterly destroy the earth and all of humanity while 9 million people starve to death each year for want of food.

I really hope that the situation can be deescalated and solved diplomatically. Ultimately ordinary civilians in Iran and Israel will end up suffering.

It's the lazy argument, that always manages to be insulting. The lack of understanding of the difference between discriminatory and indiscrimatory is amazing. I knew as soon as PP mentioned Israel not killing indiscriminately, what the response/s would be.

Israel is being struck right now?

I don’t think you’re faith in the iron dome is justified Israel claims a 70% success rate, most analysts seem to believe 40% to be more accurate. Bear in mind this is a 40% success rate against the simplistic rockets fired over from southern Lebanon not the hypersonic missiles Iran possesses

US military analysts believe Iran has over 200,000 missiles ready to fire at Israel, even if the 70% figure is to be believed around 60,000 would get through in the best case scenario?
What is the US going to do, beyond supply more weapons to keep the conflict going?
Iran can’t be defeated militarily, not by conventional means. So is the only hope that the Iranian public rises up and overthrows their government? The same Iranian public that’s currently out on the streets demanding their government hit Israel harder?
Hard to see how this ends well for anyone?

@Whatsinanamehey

"Il be honest, I don't think Iran should have nuclear weapons and neither do I think Israel should.

I'm certainly no fan of the Iranian government. I do disagree that bombing them and potentially starting another war was the best course of action right now."

I agree that the fewer countries that have nuclear weapons the better including Israel. But the reality is that Israel has had nuclear for over 50 years and there is no way they will now give them up. Iran on the other hand doesn't currently have nuclear weapons and it would be a positive thing for regional stability and the world in general that they don't get to develop nuclear weapons.

How to go about preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons is another question. Sanctions and diplomatic pressure certainly did not work so maybe high explosives will?

BBC: In Iran, grief for civilian casualties but little pity for commanders

The Iranian regime remains deeply unpopular, and many citizens have shown little sympathy for the assassination of senior military commanders, figures widely seen as responsible for brutal crackdowns on peaceful protests.

The regime is also being blamed for dragging Iran into a war through its support for armed groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, as well as its ongoing nuclear programme.

Many Iranians are openly critical of their leaders for failing to protect the country. They point out the hypocrisy: authorities are quick to crack down on women who refuse to wear the compulsory hijab, but when it comes to identifying and preventing a major military threat, the same authorities seem powerless - despite all their political posturing.

www.bbc.com/news/articles/czr85lpd7kyo

@Golden407 ”US military analysts believe Iran has over 200,000 missiles ready to fire at Israel, even if the 70% figure is to be believed around 60,000 would get through in the best case scenario?”

The internet says Iran has 3,000.
Early reports were Iran fired less than 100 and at least 2 got through, one of which hit residential buildings.
However Iran has now fired 5 waves, and what’s on the internet is a bit garbled, like 5 different angles of the same missile striking.
There is no way 30% of what they fire actually strikes.

That’s interesting as I have heard Israeli representatives on radio talking about their hope for regime change in Iran. I can certainly see the benefits of it for Iranians, especially women.

I wonder if Iranians feel bitter about other governments having meddled in their leadership in the past. Who knows were we would be now in they hadn’t be doing this over the last 70 years or so. Khomeini came in with immense support on back of prior US meddling.

There must be complex feelings of citizens in Iran at present. I imagine anger at their leadership but also at Israel for what they have done in their country and the killing of their scientists, as well as what’s happened in Gaza.

Somehow I can’t see US allowing a democracy in Iran unless they also know they have a pro- U.S. / Israel puppet in place. No doubt there will have been a lot of background manoeuvring going on that will only come out after many years.

Doesn’t always work though - see Hamas, also in response to what Israel had been doing in the region.

https://news.sky.com/feature/why-the-us-and-iran-hate-each-other-11634650

It’s very hard to say, there’s certainly much damage in Israel, the Twitter videos are horrific. Apparently Iran had a number of missile emplacements ready to strike Israel at short notice and Israel has been successful in pre-emptively destroying these to whatever degree. This has hindered Irans immediate response.
The iron dome missiles are incredibly expensive when Iran launched its last wave in 2024, 200 drones, apparently the armament cost of iron dome missiles to defend against those attacks cost over 2 billion dollars. How viable is it to maintain that defence against a sustained attack over weeks or months?
Then there’s China, China gets around 90% of its oil needs from Iran, over a million barrels a day. Part of the reason the US is so keen to install a compliant regime in Iran is to give it the ability to threaten chinas energy supply. How will China respond? How will Russia respond given its allied to both Iran and China?
The whole situation is incredibly depressing.

It’s very hard to say, there’s certainly much damage in Israel, the Twitter videos are horrific. Apparently Iran had a number of missile emplacements ready to strike Israel at short notice and Israel has been successful in pre-emptively destroying these to whatever degree. This has hindered Irans immediate response.

 The iron dome missiles are incredibly expensive when Iran launched its last wave in 2024, 200 drones, apparently the armament cost of iron dome missiles to defend against those attacks cost over 2 billion dollars. How viable is it to maintain that defence against a sustained attack over weeks or months?

 Then there’s China, China gets around 90% of its oil needs from Iran, over a million barrels a day. Part of the reason the US is so keen to install a compliant regime in Iran is to give it the ability to threaten chinas energy supply. How will China respond? How will Russia respond given its allied to both Iran and China?

  The whole situation is incredibly depressing.

So as predicted literally all over social media people are supporting Iran and advocating for them to have nuclear weapons. This is the is country that, aside from declaring death to the west and israel, executes tens of women every year for crimes against morality. Maybe this is the moment that the pro Palestine people jumped the shark?

Note Palestinians live in Israel and I wonder how Palestinian injuries and deaths will be reported. Hamas will probably just add the figures to their daily tally of IDF casualties.

I bet plenty of those people have all the obligatory soundbites and symbols of the white saviour. The type who jump on the latest crusade in order to find self-worth. Greta Thunberg, eat your heart out.

Perhaps it’s time for both sides to pause, reflect, and consider whether their war aims have already been achieved. If the Iranian regime does not collapse and we aren't in a position to assess how effective their security apparatus really is (after all, many predicted Putin’s fall, yet three years into a ruinous war, he remains in power) then Iran will still retain considerable capacity to strike its enemies, whether through conventional weapons or more pointedly via terrorism, including against us.

And let’s not forget: they scored a direct hit on IDF headquarters. They clearly have missile capabilities, and it’s only a matter of time before they or another malign actor develop a nuclear payload. That scenario now feels less like a possibility and more like an inevitability. In that light, talking and pursuing peace is not just sensible it's the most effective and affordable form of defense we have.And I'm not aware thus far unusually of western powers coming to their aid with scrambed jets and extra air defecne systems. Though I've just wokened up and not fully up to date so maybe wrong.

So take whatever victories you can claim, and end this madness. And while you're at it, declare a ceasefire in Gaza. Let the aid in, and allow international partners to begin the process of rebuilding.

Israel needs to prosper but not this way. Becoming a cruel, militarized state perpetually at war will, in the end, erode its soul and destroy it from within. Security bought at the cost of endless conflict is unsustainable. A different path is needed.

Tellingly and I have just checked Trump's Truth Social not a peep about Israel or solidarity I suspect the orange one is annoyed Netanhayu went unilateral against his real-estate buddies Witkoff's and Huckabee has only just tweeted - the hiatus is telling and he's framing it MAGA compliant as "Americans" not "Israelis".

Ambassador Mike Huckabee
If you hear “Israel is no concern to USA” remember 700,000 AMERICANS live in Israel. That is equivalent to a full House District. More Americans here than in any other country except Mexico! Iran isn’t just attacking Israel but your fellow Americans who live here.

Worst case scenarios. Would like best case scenarios but can’t find.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74n23y1x48o.amp

There has been deaths and injuries reported on both sides including children. I think more needs to be done to de-escalate right now. This is madness.

What's the next most likely scenario? I know nobody has a crystall ball but still, it's looking very very awful right now.

For those cheering on the fall of the Iranian regime consider what that actually means. If it collapses, it’s unlikely to be through some peaceful, velvet revolution. The people with the guns the IRGC and affiliated forces won’t simply vanish. They’ll fragment into armed factions, seizing control of resources and ensuring they, not the average citizen, are well fed and protected. Infrastructure will likely crumble, and it will be ordinary Iranians just as it was ordinary Russians after the fall of the Soviet Union who bear the heaviest burden.

Yes, such a collapse might give Israel some breathing room, might dilute the threat for a while and from a purely strategic standpoint, that could be called a win. But for millions of Iranians, it would mean poverty, chaos, and possibly civil war. Failed states are not liberation stories they are nightmares. So let’s not kid ourselves that this is being done for the Iranian people. Because it isn’t.

Who said it was? Israel's aims are clear, to stop Iran building nuclear weapons.