Can Hamas remain in charge?

[mids2019]

So we have a ceasefire but will it last with Hamas remaining in charge of Gaza? There may be attempts for more moderate governance such as the. PA to take over but will they succeed?

The problem with Hamas still existing as a governing power is that Gaza may not attract international. investment for reconstruction and surely that is required for the Palestinian people to live reasonable lives?

More worryingly is that Hamas still has a great deal of support in Gaza and I think the media has glossed over the Palestinians who still feel the war needs to continue and Hamas represent some kind of righteous cause (which is bizarre). The media have had plenty of quotes from Palestinains wanting peace but for balance I think there should be acknowledgment there will be many who wish revenge on Israel and there is still the latent possibility of another October 7th st some point. As Blinken pointed out there are more Hamas fighters now than at the start and this does indicate there is a section of Paelstinain society who at heart out their hatred of Israelis above a lasting prosperous peace.

No Hamas cant remain in charge, obviously. They are a terrorist organisation committed to the destruction of Israel. They have also proved themselves to be completely incompetent as a government for the people of Gaza not only because their overriding interest is to obliterate Israel but because they are religious extremists with no concern for human rights.

Deliberate misuse of billions of dollars of funds, brutal suppression of dissent, abandonment of the charitable facade that got their users hooked. Malevolent seems a better descriptor than incompetent.

Certainly malevolent - completely motivated by hatred.

I don’t think there could possibly be a permanent peace with Hamas in charge. They have said, and proved with their actions, that their goal is to destroy Israel at any cost. If they remain in power, it is just a matter of time until they try again and they will keep trying until they succeed or are overthrown.

Unfortunately, Hamas are reasonably popular and very powerful and they have extensive, stable and valuable support internationally. Their moderate political opponents, who would accept land for peace, are a small and very quiet minority. They would need to stage a coup (without getting caught and beheaded) and then somehow stabilise a people who do not want them in power. It’s very undemocratic. But an election in the near future would be very unlikely to lead to a pro-peace party winning. Of course, if there were an election and the jihads won, then it would be even harder for the liberals to gain and hold power in future.

I think the best chance for real peace would be for a coalition of moderate Muslim nations (led by who? Jordan? Kazakhstan?!) to “manage” Gaza and systematically deradicalise the society, until enough of the teenagers are of voting age. But that also isn’t terribly democratic and it would take a long time.

I have a hunch that there will be hostage exchanges after which Hamas will resume their attacks. Destruction of Israel is Hamas' whole reason for existence.

The IDF will then be obliged to finish the job.

Just make sure any released Hamas operatives have pagers.

What does obliged to finish the job mean? The IDF failed miserably to eradicate Hamas this time, next time won't be any different

I don’t think Hamas will remain in charge

A lot of this comes down to the US President and the ability to exert pressure on that not happening

@Usou But if there's one thing we've learnt (and which was clear from the beginning) is that military action can't "finish the job". All those innocent civilians dead and yet some are saying that the number of fighters has barely diminished in size (although they must be severely weakened in terms of infrastructure). No home-grown terrorist organisation has ever been defeated through military action. There needs to be efforts towards a political solution that leverages the Palestinian people away from Hamas while offering them a real alternative and hope for the future. At the moment they have little to lose and no other options.

I would also say there will never be peace while Netanyahu and some of his allies are in power.

@mids2019

As Blinken pointed out there are more Hamas fighters now than at the start and this does indicate there is a section of Paelstinain society who at heart out their hatred of Israelis above a lasting prosperous peace.

Maybe you need to think about it differently. We are talking about people who have been starved, bombed and maimed, lost their schools, hospitals, homes, businesses and agricultural land. Where every family has lost a loved one. Where thousands of children will live their lives without a limb. You can see how this ongoing trauma will grow hate and ultimately terrorism.

Blinken said an awful lot more than that in the issue. The US have been saying that Israel risk driving more Palestinian's towards Hamas with the war since quite early on. blinken lays down a path to peace in the speech you are referencing where he points out that if you don't fill the void and offer a peaceful political path to a Palestinian state and security, safety and prosperity then the growth of Hamas or an even darker monster is inevitable.

an even darker monster is inevitable.

@mollyfolk do you honestly think that people living in Israel are worried about 'a darker monster?'

I'm paraphrasing Blinken's speech.

But yes I do think they should be worried about it. Their government continued with this war despite these warnings from the US government and others that their actions would ultimately make Israel more unsafe.

I think the best chance for real peace would be for a coalition of moderate Muslim nations (led by who? Jordan? Kazakhstan?!) to “manage” Gaza and systematically deradicalise the society

Honestly I think Saudi would be the best bet. They're a very different proposition since Mohammed bin Salman, and they're actually far less tolerant of radicalism than Western countries, who tend to pussyfoot.

Liberal values are the epitome of pussyfooting. It is not a successful strategy in the middle east.

I don't have an opinion on it- it's up to Palestinians to decide how they are ruled.

The IDF could go in much, much harder. They have actually been showing some restraint in order to avoid excessive civilian casualties. They could just obliterate the place, and who would blame them watching well-fed Hamas operatives "giving it large" at the hostage exchange today.

This is, after all, what Hamas, Hezbollah, IJ and various other actors want to do to Israel.

They've already obliterated the place! And still haven't eradicated Hamas, surely nobody is that naive to believe if the IDF go in much much harder they'll definitely see an end to Hamas, not gonna happen

That's fighting talk. Very easy when you're not in the middle of it.

Of course Israel could destroy Hamas, Gaza, every building every refugee camp. Everything. Every organised thing.
They won't be supported by other nations to do that, one hopes, but it is very naïve to think that they couldn't.

Agree. There will be absolutely no peace unless Hamas is out, and it will take a strong Muslim liberal nation to get them out of power.

IMO Hamas caused a deliberate war and used the citizens of Palestine as collateral.

Isreal has no hostages - but prisoners who have committed crimes. The hostages Hamas are releasing were mainly taken from a lawful peaceful music festival.

Well Hezbollah certainly aren't in great shape these days.

Why haven't they done that then? The Israeli government said there would be no ceasefire until Hamas were destroyed, Hamas are not destroyed

It's a fact

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

In what way have they not obliterated the place?

I don't really understand why dozens of Hamas prisoners have to be released for each single Israeli prisoner. Does anyone know why this is?