Detainees, Truce and Agreements *title altered at OP's request*

[stormy4319trevor]

Continuing broad discussion of the release of detainees, hostages and prisoners and the agreements around this.

@Efacsen thanks for the update
I have just seen the UN chief say he isn't going to give up on a ceasefire but I'm not really sure what else can be done if the US can continue to veto any resolutions calling for one

@Parkingt111 IDK US vetoing a ceasefire and sending more ammunition - US says one of their red lines is not displacing citizens into Sinai but it looks very much like that's now on the near horizon and once it starts will be ?unstoppable

Elections in Egypt today - voters being bribed with food to vote for El Sisi

@Efacsen the US have been the most contradictory with their words and actions and I'm glad to see the UN and other countries calling them out for it now.
I have seen the images of Mawasi where Israel expects all the civilians to move to and it is inhumane to expect such a thing
It is no different than expecting them to go live in sinai in a barren desert

@Parkingt111 it's sad but true that at least in Sinai there are no bombs falling and humanitarian aid [photos yesterday of backlog at El Arish airport] and field hospitals are to hand

Don't see the point of having red-lines if your actions make the breaching of them more likely - it's mad stuff

Shakes my head til it gives me vertigo

IDF have announced brief 'humanitarian pause' in Rafah today - hopefully some aid will get delivered to Al Mawasi during that time

This was from a poll in 2022
Only 14% of the Egyptians polled view the peace agreements as positive, while 82% see them as at least "somewhat" negative. Egyptian attitudes toward peace with Israel show that the public is not in line with the policies of its own government on this question.

It seems even before the war, majority of Egyptians were not happy with normalising relations with Israel.
I'm sure that has decreased even more now but the government I doubt will still allow refugees in.

atleast a little relief in one area
They have asked more blocks in Khan younis to evacuate today and the pressure is mounting

Apologies for spamming this thread

Some not particularly good news for hostages and their families

Qatar PM: Israel's bombardment of Gaza 'narrowing the window' for renewed hostage deal

Mediation efforts are continuing to secure a new Gaza ceasefire and free more hostages held by Hamas despite the ongoing Israeli bombardment that is “narrowing the window” for a successful outcome, Qatar’s prime minister said Sunday.

“Our efforts as the state of Qatar along with our partners are continuing. We are not going to give up,” sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told the Doha Forum, adding that “the continuation of the bombardment is just narrowing this window for us”.

“We are going to continue, we are committed to have hostages released, but we are also committed to stop the war,” Qatar’s prime minister said.

But, AFP reports he added, “we are not seeing the same willingness from both parties”.

I can't see how there can be negotiations of any sort, including hostages, including the prosecution of Hamas officials, without a ceasefire. The phrase 'humanitarian pause' is an oxymoron. Humanitarians don't take a tea break between killing children. Utter nonsense is being spouted.

Ok let's for arguments sake say it goes back to the UN.
The resolution from the Arab states includes the phrases 'both' and stipulates that Hamas has to release hostages, lay down arms, stop firing rockets and come to the table. As does Israel. No more bombs.

Checks and balance. Both sides have an equal footing and shared responsibility.

It goes through.

Then what happens?

All that was in the UN resolution vetoed by US on Friday - it's not a ceasefire unless it's both parties [??] and releasing all hostages in there too

@Stomacharmeleon I think there must be prosecutions of high ranking Hamas officials and investigation into anyone who took part on that day. And there must be the same investigation into the Israeli government and army's actions. It will take years of course. There can also be a temporary government in Gaza, pending elections. I don't know how that would look, but it could include the PLO and international co-ordination. There would probably need to be a peace keeping operation, a withdrawal of Israeli military occupation from the OpT, while negotiations take place towards a 2 state solution. Of course, it would be much more complicated than that, but those would be the basics, I think.

@Efacsen I wasn't being facetious I am genuinely interested. I thought the uk abstained due to lack of condemnation of Hamas? Could that not have been rejigged?

I suppose I mean. Say it goes through. Then what? Do hamas and Israel have to recognise it? Are either likely too?

Thanks @stormy4319trevor tbh there is little in your post I disagree with.

I mean I wonder if I'm living in cloud cuckoo land and it's impossible, but I still try to believe in the good will of humanity as a general principle. I imagine most ordinary people want an end to conflict.

As far as I understand it - it's a bit of a cumbersome process and the resolution can't be re-jigged/bits added at that stage - any changes needed to be made when UAE first presented the draft resolution

Hamas are already saying that they want a ceasefire and release of all hostages so
?more likely to accept

Israel doesn't want a ceasefire atm isn't ready to end the war

Parties who don't co-operate can be subject to economic sanctions

@Efacsen I think if Hamas let the Red Cross in at least it would go a long way to resolution. I do understand though why neither side is showing willing.

And in fact that might not be completely correct - maybe UK or US would have had to present an alternative resolution which they wouldn't have done because neither wanted a ceasefire

Sometimes as has been the case before w Gaza argey-bargeying about the precise wording can go on for days/weeks

There was a sense of urgency and adopting the UAE resolution was the most straightforward route

@Efacsen that's interesting. I didn't realise that. I didn't realise it would be so cut and dried if you know what I mean. No room for diplomacy.

@Stomacharmeleon the diplomacy has to go on before the resolution is brought to the Security Council meeting - there were attempts on Friday to delay the meeting to allow more time for diplomacy and also to have the meeting but not a vote so as not to embarress the US

But the sense of urgency was real and it went ahead as planned

@Efacsen I get the sense of urgency but in light of the result maybe that would have been the better option.

As in if they knew that would be the outcome (as I doubt it was a surprise to anyone) then it could be construed as postering by the Arab states? 'Well we all wanted to do something but America said no'

Allows the likes of Russia and China (bastions of human rights) to have their say. To what effect? Makes a mockery of it really in light of Ukraine etc.

If I have it wrong please say.... was it fairly obvious who would vote what way or was if a complete surprise? Down to the wire?

I did read somewhere of one opinion that the UN knew that the US would veto but still went ahead regardless to apply pressure to the US. That the war needs to end soon, and the US need to apply more pressure to Israel to reduce civilian casualties
I don't think it has had an effect so far
Blinken has a very tough job to do

That would be great if everyone put weapons down and all hostages released.

Better news first - tho' not at all sure if this will make any difference it's evidence of the UN not giving up in the face of US veto on Friday

The UN general assembly, which comprises 193 member states, is likely to vote on a draft resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Gaza war on Tuesday, Reuters reports diplomats saying on Sunday.

**

And then this

''Hamas has warned that no hostages will leave Gaza alive unless its demands for prisoner releases are met.

In a televised statement on Sunday, a Hamas spokesperson said Israel will not receive “their prisoners alive without an exchange and negotiation and meeting the demands of the resistance.”

Really alarming - tho' they have said similar things before and not carried it out so hopefully this is more of the war of words that's escalating atm