Hamas are strategically brilliant, and Iran has used Hamas masterfully. Their core mission is to permanently destroy the state of Israel, either killing or driving away all of the Jews, and with their barbaric and large scale surprise attack against Israeli civilians, they have taken a huge stride towards accomplishing that. Hamas claim to represent people in Gaza, but actually Hamas and Iran are using people in Gaza to accomplish their own aims.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which were sidling towards normal relations with Israel, can or will no longer do that. Hostility by Saudi/Turkey against Israel will strengthen Hamas, and will also strengthen Iran. Western support for Israel will falter. That is exactly what Hamas wants.
Israel's leadership is obnoxious, murderous and self-centred, and overly beholden to a minority of religious zealots, but strategically the country is between a rock and a hard place and any other Israeli government would face exactly the same dilemma. They have basically two choices:
- Cease fire, and wait for Hamas to bring in thousands of additional rockets and other weaponry, and then do the same thing again, only worse, and and again, even worse, and then repeat again, until all Jewish Israelis are either dead or gone, or
- Do what they are doing now and go after Hamas and the tunnels, despite the fact that this can only be accomplished by also killing many thousands of civilians, because Hamas has installed its command centres and weapons depots underground beneath civilian infrastructure. The inevitable result is that people who already hated Israel will hate them more vehemently, Israel will also receive less consistent support from the West, and Hamas will therefore be that much closer to their ultimate goal of destroying Israel and killing or driving out all Jewish Israelis.
Israel has a stronger military, but in the long run, they cannot win, neither strategically nor in the minds and hearts of the population here in the UK. Israel is in an extremely weak position geographically, on a small and narrow strip of land, surrounded by enemies who vastly outnumber them and who will attack again and again and again. That willingness to attack was perhaps diminishing among the larger states, and I believe that is the real reason why Hamas' allies helped them to attack in this way right now. Israel's enemies only need to win once in order to forever wipe Israel and its population off the face of the earth. Israel needs to win every single time they get attacked, and they need to win while exercising enough restraint to maintain support for the next time they get attacked. That is their eternal dilemma.
For those who argue for a two state solution, with two states existing peacefully side by side, unfortunately it seems clear that Hamas will never accept that, even if Israel were to give back all of the land they have unlawfully taken. Hamas want a one state solution, with either no Jews at all, or Jews who are their subjects. They will accept nothing less.