Just managed to search through an old thread which I read when thinking about ttc, and whether or not to postpone until after the worst of the winter illness was over.
Anyway, I found this post really useful (by someone much brainier than me!):
By lucky1979 Wed 29-Jul-09 17:20:12
I posted this on the guardian website - it has some assumptions in it so not exact (plus I'm not a statistician and did my numbers on a scrappy bit of paper in the midst of the work I'm actually supposed to be doing), but the statistical risk of actually dying from swine flu, based on the Lancet report is as follows:
A figure that has been around in the past (not sure how accurate it will be now) is that 0.35% of cases of swine flu are classed as serious. So, as a pregnant lady, if your chances of complications (hospitalisation) are 4 times as likely, your chances of developing complications are 1.4% or just over 1 in 100. Not really bad odds in and of themselves, however you have to catch it first. Take the figure, as projected in the worst case scenario, that 30% of people in the country will catch the virus, and assume also (as there is no evidence to the contrary that I have seen) that pregnant women are no more susceptible to catching the virus than any other member of the population. Therefore 30 in 100 pregnant women will get swine flu. 1.4% of these 30 women will develop complications ? meaning that 0.42% of pregnant women will get swine flu AND develop complications. Or, 99.58% of pregnant women in the UK will, at worse, suffer for a few days then be absolutely fine. Even of the 0.42% who have developed complications, assuming the death rate of 6 in 34 serious cases holds true based on the sample from Minnesota , thats a 17.6% death rate. So the chances that you will die from swine flu in the worst case scenario of 30% infection, if you are a pregnant lady, is 0.07%.
The chance that you won't die from swine flu if you're pregnant during the worst case scenario pandemic is 99.93%, which will be even higher if you have no underlying health issues as that is not accounted as I don't have the numbers to include that.
The chances that you won't die if you are pregnant AND you catch it is 99.75%
These are pretty good odds really, so don't panic!