AIBU to think if we need to politely ask men not to rape women (or men), then we don't want such people in the UK? PART 2

[CoventryCity]

'Don't rape, sexually assault or make kissing noises' at people, asylum seekers warned in guidance about living in UK

UK arrivals have been told to treat women equally, not sexually assault partners or have sex with children in a new Home Office pamphlet. As well as the guidebook, a series of posters have also been designed by the government.'

https://news.sky.com/story/asylum-seekers-warned-not-to-make-kissing-sounds-at-people-in-new-guidance-about-living-in-uk-13574744

Previous thread here:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5568695-aibu-to-think-if-we-need-to-politely-ask-men-not-to-rape-women-or-men-then-we-dont-want-such-people-in-the-uk?page=40&reply=154338993&utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

Statistical analysis is neutral and scientific. Doing it doesn’t minimise or excuse rape. Doing it properly is actually beneficial because then we would actually get an idea as to whether immigration has any impact on crime or rape.

I know you said you don’t give a shit about confounding factors, which just means you don’t give a shit about the truth. You would rather be outraged and misdirect that anger based on bad data that cannot be an accurate representation of reality.

We have no idea whether immigrants are more likely to rape. None at all. The enture narrative is built on the weaponisation of raw data and racism. I honestly am shocked you would say these are ‘my’ confounding factors like I own them or I thought of them, these are the two most basic common ones found in statistics. I am not convinced you did statistics for social sciences by the way you are writing. Or at least that is the nicest thing I can think of to give you the benefit of the doubt, that you know not what you are doing. If you did, then you are knowingly complicit in spreading data that you know to be egregiously inaccurate, data that is being weaponised to cause hate crimes and civil unrest.

They are not even close to being valid comparison data sets. That’s just a fact.

No it means I'm not interested in an analysis of the age or sex (men fyi) of rapists. They're rapists and I don't want them here. I'm bored with you now, you're not a genuine poster. You only have one aim and that is to shut down people with valid concerns. Valid and reliable concerns.

They are and you know they are, you can stop pretending.

She can't stop. What else would she do? Accept the truth?

Because I'm a lazy shit I even had AI crunch the numbers for me - we settled on Sweden as an example

A high-quality Swedish register study examined all individuals convicted of rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape or attempted aggravated rape against adult women between 2000 and 2020 (4,032 cases). Each case was matched to five controls of the same birth year and sex.
Key findings:

• 63% of those convicted had an immigrant background (born abroad or born in Sweden with at least one parent born abroad), compared with a much lower share in the general population.
• Compared with Swedish-born people with two Swedish-born parents, the unadjusted odds of conviction were:
• ~1.5× higher for Swedish-born with one foreign-born parent
• ~2.4× higher for Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents
• ~4.6× higher for foreign-born people who arrived before age 15
• ~6.3× higher for foreign-born people who arrived at age 15 or older
• After statistical adjustment for socioeconomic status, substance-use disorders, psychiatric disorders and prior criminal behaviour, the elevated odds fell but remained statistically significant — especially for those who arrived as adolescents or adults (still roughly 2–2.4× higher for the late-arrival group).

The over-representation was therefore not fully explained by age, sex, poverty or mental-health factors. Risk was highest among those who had spent the least time in Sweden and declined with longer residence. Source Khoshnood, A., et al. (2025). “Immigrant Background and Rape Conviction: A 21-Year Follow-Up Study in Sweden.” Journal of Interpersonal Violence (full text available via PMC: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12662818/).

They are not. I don’t know why you are refusing to listen. Here are a few links that explain the impact of confounding factors. I do hope that posters will take the time to read them and thereby understand why general population vs immigrant population or not directly comparable data sets.

https://medium.com/@PedroJTorres_/understanding-confounding-variables-and-their-impact-on-data-analysis-5bf626c43b7d

https://www.editage.com/blog/confounding-variables-identification-definition-types-examples/

See my post above @NullaEffugium

That’s not what adjusting for the confounding factors of age and sex between two populations is though. It’s got nothing to do with the age or sex of rapists.

I am sorry you are bored, statistics isn’t the most exciting of topics.

Denmark publishes regular, transparent official statistics on convictions by ancestry (Danish origin vs. immigrants and descendants, further split into Western/non-Western). The Ministry of Justice and Statistics Denmark release age-adjusted crime indices, which directly address the young-male demographic confounder you mentioned. Sexual offences are included in the broader criminal-code data, and some specific breakdowns for rape exist.
Summary of the pattern

• Non-Western immigrants and especially their Danish-born descendants are consistently over-represented in criminal convictions relative to their population share (non-Western groups are roughly 10% of the population).
• For overall criminal-code offences and for violence, age-adjusted indices for non-Western male descendants are typically in the range of 2.5–3.5 times the average for the male population (e.g., indices around 260–300+ in recent years). Non-Western immigrants themselves are elevated but usually less so than the second generation.
• On rape and sexual offences specifically: recent figures (drawing on Ministry of Justice / Statistics Denmark data) show non-Western immigrants and descendants accounting for roughly 30%+ of rape convictions while forming about 10% of the population. One commonly cited breakdown put non-Western immigrants at ~24% of rape convictions and non-Western descendants at ~8%, for a combined ~32% share. Absolute numbers remain dominated by people of Danish origin simply because they are the large majority.
• An earlier Ministry of Justice study (covering charges/convictions for rape, sexual offences against children, and indecent exposure 2010–2015) examined differences by Danish origin, immigrant and descendant status and noted socioeconomic differences among perpetrators, plus some differences in offence circumstances when the perpetrator was an immigrant.

Age adjustment reduces the raw gaps but does not eliminate them. The data also show heterogeneity: over-representation is concentrated among certain non-Western origin groups (often highlighted for MENAPT-region backgrounds), while Western immigrants generally show little or no elevation. Denmark’s strength is the routine production of age-standardised indices and publicly accessible StatBank tables that allow breakdowns by ancestry and offence type. It is not quite as refined as the Swedish register study (which matched cases to controls and adjusted for multiple additional confounders such as psychiatric diagnoses and prior criminality in a single dedicated rape analysis), but it is among the clearest and most regularly updated official sources in Europe. Main sources

• Statistics Denmark StatBank tables on convicted persons by ancestry and type of offence (e.g., STRFNA10 and related tables).
• Danish Ministry of Justice reports in the series Kriminalitet og herkomst (Crime and Ancestry), latest covering 2023 data with age-adjusted indices.
• Secondary reporting of the conviction shares for rape (e.g., analyses citing Ministry of Justice figures).
• Older dedicated report: “Perpetrators and crime situations in cases of rape and other sexual offences” (Ministry of Justice, data 2010–2015).

These are official Danish government statistics rather than a single academic paper, so they are updated periodically and can be checked directly via Statistics Denmark.

'The over-representation was therefore not fully explained by age, sex, poverty or mental-health factors'

I don't care about any of that anyway. Rapists from other countries should simply not be here. I don't care about their background. Sorry not sorry. They're rapists.

That’s a great example of a study done correctly. You can see the unadjusted raw data is far far higher than after confounding factors have been considered.

However, it is problematic to directly compare Sweden to the UK, there’s a whole level of complexity there.

It is best that we collect the data and do the same sort of analysis here to see if there is also an over-representation.

Hello all.

I’ve been out and I’m trying to catch up,

But reading through the last couple of pages it looks as though it’s just more of the same from the usual suspects.

ps. They are 2 factors you mentioned ages ago now. As I said bored.

Of course!

It’s got nothing to do with the background of rapists. This is about comparing two populations and how to do it accurately in order to draw valid conclusions as to any differences in offending rates.

That did stand out to me too. One thing to adjust for age and sex, but why the rest of it? I mean, if immigrant populations are poorer and/or madder than the locals, I don't find that an excuse for them being rapey at all.

Yes but they aren’t referring to the age and sex of rapists.

You could try reading the second link I posted. It would tell you why and how statisticians determine confounding factors.

Is the 2.5 to 3.5 the raw data or after age adjustment?
or you could link it and I will look it up for myself?

Quite

But why should we care about any of that?

We don’t want to know about ‘mitigating factors’, we just don’t want such people to come here.

Sorry @CoventryCity , just realised you said pretty much the same thing.

Confounding factors are not mitigating factors!

The joke is that I did quite a lot of stats as part of my degree, so the little teaching links are quite funny.