Yes it absolutely will be based on the number of MPs then and not 2024.
But I am not convinced that restore or reform or a combination of them will suddenly gain the 150-200 seats needed.
This based on historical results.
2019 NF Brexit party had 275 candidates and won 0 seats
2024 NF Reform party had 609 candidates and won 5 seats.
You can’t argue obviously use statistics to make any picture you want but that’s pre facts and figures.
I could use the statistics to say he won 0/275 so lost 275 of the votes he went for. Which then also means he won 5/609 seats. So i could say in 2024 he didn’t win 604/609 seats contested.
So he didn’t win over twice as many.
However like i said you can twist stats to tell a tale using all sorts of bias.
But facts are he fielded 609 candidates compared to Labours 631 and Tory’s 635 and Lib Dem’s 630.
and only 5 of those were voted in.
But there would have to be an extremely huge unprecedented change for Reform to win enough seats from their 600 + candidates to have Farage as an MP.