To start to think reform will be voted in next time, and they will be running the country

[Whatdoyouthinktothis]

I’ve been a life long labour voter, but I’m starting to think reform will be elected next time
mainly just due to so many criminals that want to harm us being allowed in and allowed to stay
and uncontrolled immigration

I think they are going to win it on this reason alone
every single day there’s a news story usually more than one someone’s been raped by one of these criminals one the other day even said he didn’t understand what rape is and he thought rape was just sex

what do you all think ?
Will reform be running the country soon ?
if they are are the capable of running things in other areas ?
if they take over how do you see that actually panning out ?

Well, I certainly hope not! Reform represent all the attitudes that I hate the most.Not just to immigrants, but to ANYONEwho is 'different' in any way. And, judging from local councils so far, most Reform politicians seem to be very lazy and incompetent (yes, so are many politicians of all parties, but the Reform ones are more so!) I am absolutely terrifed of their running (or was that a misspelling of 'ruining') the country. But I think it's preventable, if opponents of Refoem bother to turn up to vote, and are prepared if need be to vote tactically for whichever party can beat Reform.

It is for me 😉

I hope your Reform candidate isn't one of the many posting racist comments online.

Things could be pretty rocky for Labour with leadership challenges and who knows where everyone will be in a few years time but the FPTP favours Reform or any party over about 30%. They’re not necessarily the smaller party anymore with the polling.

This seems like a concerning thing to say? Are you indicating that native-born people should be assigned a different value than immigrants so that the numbers tell a different story? That numbers are somehow NOT the whole truth? Well in that case, there’s really no problem, is there? Since all humans are equal. I mean, unless you thought the American “3/5ths compromise” was an awesome idea. That would be a very Trumpian “they’re not sending us their best… they’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists” type sentiment, so I assume I’ve just misunderstood you.

They may well get in and outside the immigration issues being resolved as many who vote Reform see as their reason for voting for them, I’d also plan for:

• More zero-hours contracts → less stable jobs, unpredictable income
• Wages may stagnate → especially for lower-paid workers
• Benefit cuts → less support if you’re struggling
• Harder to qualify for help → more people fall through the cracks
• Reduced renters’ rights → easier for landlords to raise rent or evict
• Rising rents → fewer protections for tenants
• Cuts to public services → NHS, schools, and councils under more pressure
• Tax cuts vs less support → you might keep a bit more money, but get less back

According to who and what might be their agenda? How are they defining down? Down by one person is down.

Has that one person jumped on a lorry instead-still lots coming in that way, maybe more than on boats.

Small boat crossings "down" is boasting of failure.

We wait for the day when we are told there are no more small boat crossings, no more in backs of lorries and we're all in for a very long wait.

There will be a protest vote this time, because there always is in the local elections. We’ve seen this time and time again and with by elections won by Lib Dem’s. Never had a Lib Dem govt though have we. It’s the right wing media talking things up. Reform have what? 5 seats? Labour won with a landslide and there’s 3 years to go until the next actual general election.

Cuts to SEN budget is already happening under Reform in Worcestershire and cuts to adult social care are being considered in Kent CC

Down in numbers

How else would you define down?

Zero boat/lorry crossing will never happen. Wars, conflicts, global warming will make sure of that. The UK could offer other routes but that won't please the anti refugee crowd.

And some of the policies are incompatible. Reform are first and foremost anti-immigration, but cuttng foreign aid and scrapping net zero (climate change is one of the biggest drivers of migration) would inevitably increase immigration.

Only if you think that the UK's net zero policies are making a difference to climate change ...

Simple for me too.

None of the parties are talking about nil immigration - surely it’s about legal and vetted folks being invited to contribute to our country and it’s culture. If I was a criminal fleeing authorities in my own country what would I do? Head to Europe or even better the UK it’s more inviting!

Your previous post said ‘it’s fucking astonishing that a country of 60 million people only has 205K net immigration per year. The UK’s birth rate is just barely replacing its death rate, so if you close off immigration, you’re going to have to use AI to make more people.’

I assume you refer to the economic impact of a declining population, otherwise why refer to AI. If that is the case, then it is necessary to compare the economic impact of those leaving versus those coming - are they net contributors on the same level as those leaving etc.

Hence my quantitative vs qualitative comment, which has no ulterior meaning beyond the economic.

I won’t be voting Reform, but it’s likely I’ll be insulated and will likely benefit esp in the short term if they get in. My husband and I own our home outright, have a joint annual income over £100k (both employed), have private healthcare, use private gp and private dentist, won’t retire for another 15 years and have built up very good private pensions and savings. For me:

Likely positives

• Lower income tax
• Possible tax breaks on private healthcare
• Potentially lower inheritance tax
• No obvious targeting of your wealth profile

Potential downsides

• Public service quality (indirect impact)
• Economic instability risk from aggressive policy mix
• Long-term energy/market uncertainty

Interesting…

I don't think they will form a governnent, or at least not on their own in the next few years. Will be interesting to see how the local elections go in areas where Reform are already running councils, as they have put council tax up a lot and are making a proper hash of it.

I'm not convinced that reform buggering up running local councils actually will translate to less votes in a GE, I think Farage and Co will blame their failings on central government restricting their ability to perform and make a bunch of false promises that the issues would be solved with a reform government.

They've already got an abysmal track record with the local councils they currently hold, it doesn't appear to be an issue for most reform voters who can't see past 'stop the boats'

There are three years to go until a general election so lots can happen. The trend to the fragmentation of the vote suggests a coalition, so really probably have to put up with weeks of talks before a way forward emerges.

If Reform are voted in, things will not improve. Grifters basing everything on populism don’t have real policies that improve the country.

Soundbites are not policies. Being popular is not the same as being good at your job.

Frankly it makes me dread the future.

It’s a certainty at this point Reform will be part of the next Government, if not have an outright majority.

I’d class myself as political centre and I’m voting for them. I really want the message received loud and clear that mass immigration, children’s education tax, highest tax burden ever on businesses and individuals, net cost immigration, social integration, high crime, taxing farmers to suicide, ever increasing welfare budget and policies favouring one identity/race/religion above another for education, employment or housing opportunities is completely unacceptable. When that message is finally received and understood, then maybe people will start engaging with the more sensible concerns of the left again.
If you’re a Labour supporter, I suggest you start listening.

Just for fun.

Side-by-side: likely impact under Reform for 2 example households

Household A

• 6-figure income
• Own home outright
• No kids or independent adult children
• Private healthcare
• Large pensions

Household B

• £80k joint income
• Renting
• 2 kids in state school
• Uses NHS
• Receiving child benefit

1. Income & tax Household A

• Gains more from tax cuts (higher income = bigger £ benefit)
• Likely £1k–£3k+ better off/year

Household B

• Gains less (lower tax exposure)
• Likely £300–£1k better off/year

Winner: Household A (by a clear margin)

2. Benefits & support Household A

• Not affected (doesn’t rely on system)

Household B

• Potential exposure:
• Child benefit changes
• Less generous support overall

Even small cuts here hit harder than tax gains help Winner: Household A (no downside vs real risk)

3. Healthcare Household A

• Already private
• Could get tax relief on insurance → direct gain

Household B

• Relies on the National Health Service
• If funding tightens:
• Longer waits
• Reduced access

Winner: Household A (again)

4. Education Household A

• No children → unaffected

Household B

• Dependent on UK state school system
• Potential:
• Larger class sizes
• Fewer resources inc for SEND

Winner: Household A (no exposure)

5. Housing Household A

• Own outright → stable
• May benefit from tax-friendly property policies

Household B

• Renting → little direct support
• Still exposed to rent increases

Winner: Household A

6. Cost of living (energy etc.) Both households

• Likely benefit from:
• Lower energy bills (VAT removal)

Draw — both win here

7. Economic risk (this is subtle but important) Reform’s approach = big tax cuts + big spending cuts Household A

• More exposed to:
• Investment markets
• Pension performance

Household B

• More exposed to:
• Job stability
• Public services

Different risks, but:

• A has assets to cushion shocks
• B depends more on stability

Still leans in A’s favour

May be see who are the majority of criminals in prison? Pretty sure it correlates to the crimes.

edited for typo.

So for which party should we vote for?

Always such a beautiful forum 💕