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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To start to think reform will be voted in next time, and they will be running the country

973 replies

Whatdoyouthinktothis · 03/05/2026 10:37

I’ve been a life long labour voter, but I’m starting to think reform will be elected next time
mainly just due to so many criminals that want to harm us being allowed in and allowed to stay
and uncontrolled immigration

I think they are going to win it on this reason alone
every single day there’s a news story usually more than one someone’s been raped by one of these criminals one the other day even said he didn’t understand what rape is and he thought rape was just sex

what do you all think ?
Will reform be running the country soon ?
if they are are the capable of running things in other areas ?
if they take over how do you see that actually panning out ?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
21
EasternStandard · 04/05/2026 14:13

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:09

I don’t think I’ve said much about a belief in low and managed demand. I said I thought crossings would potentially disappear if there was a safe way to achieve the same end. But what I’m really saying is we need a complete change in how the international community deals with displaced people. A planned, combined approach, because the numbers are only going to increase with climate change and political instability.

They wouldn’t disappear unless you can say how many you could place which would eradicate that need.

On an international system I think more electorates in multiple countries would have been amenable to this decades ago rather than now. Politicians didn’t address it and now it’s a harder sell.

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:13

I agree with reform regarding asylum seekers. But that's about it. I don't love their energy and climate policy (as someone who actively works in renewables and decarbonisation).

I actually like closer ties with Europe. I actually like going to the EU. I think it's fine to have had both sides to the debate. But I actually think frictionless trade and travel was a good thing. There are a handful of small wins, but overall I can't see a way the UK has won.

I don't like the asylum seekers and effects they have on society. But I think overall though EU migration was good, and for the most part well integrated and contributing.

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:14

Hallowedturf · 04/05/2026 14:10

You have included an assumption that I support Reform (or their immigration policies).

Well, I based that on your defending the policies. Why would you do that if you disagree?

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:15

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:02

I said ‘any’ money. So if there isn’t any, so be it. Not firing.
But then you go an about ‘spite’ so revealing your political viewpoint to be a little simplistic. I didn’t vote out of spite. I feel no spite. Lots of people earn more than I did (retired) because of the career I chose. I don’t really care. I didn’t even consider that part of the manifesto if I’m honest because it’s so insignificant to me (and well over 93% of families with children). I vote based on what is best for the country overall, because I think living in a more equal society benefits both top and bottom of the earnings pile.

Taxing children’s education is a simple issue.

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:15

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:04

Unreliable financial help? the 20% tax on children’s education is irrelevant?

LOL. Ok.

Bursaries and scholarships are unreliable. I worked in a couple of independent schools and saw them withdrawn for all sorts of reasons and none. And yes, VAT is irrelevant in the face of the speed of rise of fees anyway.

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:17

Fixing the UK economy will take 10+ years of a strong vision, investment, changing of planning laws and genuine investment into public services. Austerity has hurt the economy. You can't fix it all in one term, especially with political factors in play.

Had we done Keynesian stimulus before cutting post 2010-GE we'd have been in a better shape.

TopPocketFind · 04/05/2026 14:17

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:13

I agree with reform regarding asylum seekers. But that's about it. I don't love their energy and climate policy (as someone who actively works in renewables and decarbonisation).

I actually like closer ties with Europe. I actually like going to the EU. I think it's fine to have had both sides to the debate. But I actually think frictionless trade and travel was a good thing. There are a handful of small wins, but overall I can't see a way the UK has won.

I don't like the asylum seekers and effects they have on society. But I think overall though EU migration was good, and for the most part well integrated and contributing.

What effects do asylum seekers have on society?

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:17

EasternStandard · 04/05/2026 14:13

They wouldn’t disappear unless you can say how many you could place which would eradicate that need.

On an international system I think more electorates in multiple countries would have been amenable to this decades ago rather than now. Politicians didn’t address it and now it’s a harder sell.

It may be a harder sell, but it’s the only real solution. Populists muddying the waters with superficially simple but impossible solutions aren't helping with that sell though.

randomchap · 04/05/2026 14:17

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:04

Unreliable financial help? the 20% tax on children’s education is irrelevant?

LOL. Ok.

Again, not a tax on education. A tax on private education. There's a significant difference.

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:19

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:13

I agree with reform regarding asylum seekers. But that's about it. I don't love their energy and climate policy (as someone who actively works in renewables and decarbonisation).

I actually like closer ties with Europe. I actually like going to the EU. I think it's fine to have had both sides to the debate. But I actually think frictionless trade and travel was a good thing. There are a handful of small wins, but overall I can't see a way the UK has won.

I don't like the asylum seekers and effects they have on society. But I think overall though EU migration was good, and for the most part well integrated and contributing.

What do you like about their asylum policy? Actual things that they can do, that stand a chance of working?
What effects do you feel asylum seekers are having on society? They are a tiny, tiny percentage. I don’t see them changing anything (and yes, I live near both an asylum hotel and settled refugees in large numbers).

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:20

But I don't agree on the VAT on private school fees. No need to tax someone's choice for a private education. They are saving the taxpayer anyway.

Regarding economics in some ways I prefer New Labour. It was genuinely supportive of markets, investment, capitalism and success. But used tax revenues from the growing economy to invest in public services.

EasternStandard · 04/05/2026 14:21

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:17

It may be a harder sell, but it’s the only real solution. Populists muddying the waters with superficially simple but impossible solutions aren't helping with that sell though.

Politicians knew this ages ago. And because they didn’t want to address it we have horrendous crimes that mostly impact women.

Gaslighting the public for so long probably means it’s too late.

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:21

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:15

Taxing children’s education is a simple issue.

Taxing private schools. Not education. A free at the point of use education is available for all, and 93% (give or take home schoolers) of children take it up.

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:23

EasternStandard · 04/05/2026 14:21

Politicians knew this ages ago. And because they didn’t want to address it we have horrendous crimes that mostly impact women.

Gaslighting the public for so long probably means it’s too late.

Reform (and lately the Tories) are the kings of gaslighting on this issue though. They keep insisting on saying they’ll do impossible things and berating everyone else for pointing it out.

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:23

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:19

What do you like about their asylum policy? Actual things that they can do, that stand a chance of working?
What effects do you feel asylum seekers are having on society? They are a tiny, tiny percentage. I don’t see them changing anything (and yes, I live near both an asylum hotel and settled refugees in large numbers).

A negative impact on crime. Unfortunately they attack women.

Something needs to change and we can't have them here anymore.

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:24

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:21

Taxing private schools. Not education. A free at the point of use education is available for all, and 93% (give or take home schoolers) of children take it up.

The private schools provide education.

TopPocketFind · 04/05/2026 14:24

Reform will not keep women and girls safe

Pearlstillsinging · 04/05/2026 14:26

Changingplace · 03/05/2026 11:12

No, I think what will happen is…

Labour will do badly in the local elections

Based on that and the pressures over the Mandelson debacle Starmer will be under pressure to step down

Andy Burnham apparently already has a number of MPs willing to orchestrate a by-election so he can become an MP and challenge the leadership

Starmer will be given the foreign secretary role, because despite what anyone says, he’s very good on the international stage and has a track record in that area

Burnham will be much more popular than Starmer and will win the next general election, I think he’d be a better challenge to Reform

Edit: Reform will do well in these local elections but their inability to run local services effectively will be their downfall in the opinion polls.

But we will see.

Edited

That would be the best scenario imho.
I think anyone who votes for Reform in the upcoming local elections will have cause and time to regret it.
There are still some voters who believe that the Brexit they voted for is exactly what Farage was planning and cannot accept that it wasn't hijacked by 'others'.
There will still be approx 3 years for them to see that NF/Reform can't run a raffle, or tell the truth before the next GE, so that they will be able to come to their senses and vote for someone who knows what they are doing.

And, yes Andy Burnham has learned a lot while he has been Mayor and would make a good Leader of the Labour Party and ultimately PM.

randomchap · 04/05/2026 14:26

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:24

The private schools provide education.

Indeed, describing it as a tax on private education is accurate, describing it as a tax on education is inaccurate.

Why are you against accuracy in debate?

TopPocketFind · 04/05/2026 14:26

Uhdf · 04/05/2026 14:24

The private schools provide education.

So do state schools and they are accessible for free

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:27

randomchap · 04/05/2026 14:17

Again, not a tax on education. A tax on private education. There's a significant difference.

A significant difference between what ? Education and private education? Private education is just non tax payer funded education, I don’t really know how taxing tax payer funded education would work? not saying Labour wouldn’t try it, but taxing children education is incredibly damaging full stop .,,whether the kids where boaters or not. More education options equals better educated country.

EasternStandard · 04/05/2026 14:27

cardibach · 04/05/2026 14:23

Reform (and lately the Tories) are the kings of gaslighting on this issue though. They keep insisting on saying they’ll do impossible things and berating everyone else for pointing it out.

Not really. Labour gaslight see one in one out and all the spin on being more humane when they’re not.

The Greens can’t answer a single question on a limit, and both berate anyone for pointing that out.

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:28

TopPocketFind · 04/05/2026 14:26

So do state schools and they are accessible for free

They’re not free, they are funded by tax payers.

randomchap · 04/05/2026 14:28

IRodeIn · 04/05/2026 14:27

A significant difference between what ? Education and private education? Private education is just non tax payer funded education, I don’t really know how taxing tax payer funded education would work? not saying Labour wouldn’t try it, but taxing children education is incredibly damaging full stop .,,whether the kids where boaters or not. More education options equals better educated country.

No, a difference in the description, one is accurate and one inaccurate. Why are you against accuracy in debate?

Winteriscoming80 · 04/05/2026 14:28

Reform might win the local elections this time but restore will win the GE,guaranteed