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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to not understand why people will vote Reform when Brexit is the reason for the migrant boats.

225 replies

LIGHTSNACKER · 03/08/2025 23:12

We did not have a boat problem before Brexit due to the rules/agreements, so why do people want to vote for the man who had a big part in causing this and his company party?

OP posts:
Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:01

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 08:46

Well yeh it takes time. You get here and tell people back home, it snowballs and you can even be asked to put up posts on how successful you were to aid business.

We do work with France btw, you may have noticed attempts to use tear gas on the beaches?

Starmer and co hailed slashing the boats as the answer too.

What else did you want to see on the beach or done that isn’t?

As for outside the EU the most effective country has been Italy, which goes back to specific policies they implemented- illegal pull backs and change to maritime laws.

15 years though? i think you re clutching at straws with that one!

However, its funny that you tell us it took 15years to get where we are but you expect the solution to take a few weeks.

I think if we were in the EU, France would have better policing up stream, wouldn't release stopped migrants back into the local area to try again later that day, Germany would have change the law on boat storage for smuggling - there wold be better co operation, seen as an EU problem, instead of just an EU one.

On Italy, the EU has a deal with Tunisia to take back Migrants/keep them there & i think we can both agree that turning back to France isn't an option?

HerewardtheSleepy · 06/08/2025 09:07

I voted "remain" but I cannot agree that the migrant boats situation has been made worse by Brexit.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 09:12

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:01

15 years though? i think you re clutching at straws with that one!

However, its funny that you tell us it took 15years to get where we are but you expect the solution to take a few weeks.

I think if we were in the EU, France would have better policing up stream, wouldn't release stopped migrants back into the local area to try again later that day, Germany would have change the law on boat storage for smuggling - there wold be better co operation, seen as an EU problem, instead of just an EU one.

On Italy, the EU has a deal with Tunisia to take back Migrants/keep them there & i think we can both agree that turning back to France isn't an option?

Edited

Not really. The pressures against are still there, it’s a multi billion industry that finds ways through but laws exist to impede.

On what you want to ask the French to do they slash boats (well one for a photo op) and tear gas, probably for the same. Why can’t you ask for those other things you listed? General you that is

People movement isn’t trade which the EU is good at controlling, it’s an illegal (the people profiting that is) set up which is thriving. The only way you’ll do anything about it is stopping people.

Some countries have - would you be willing to say who you think is the most successful at that?

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:22

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 09:12

Not really. The pressures against are still there, it’s a multi billion industry that finds ways through but laws exist to impede.

On what you want to ask the French to do they slash boats (well one for a photo op) and tear gas, probably for the same. Why can’t you ask for those other things you listed? General you that is

People movement isn’t trade which the EU is good at controlling, it’s an illegal (the people profiting that is) set up which is thriving. The only way you’ll do anything about it is stopping people.

Some countries have - would you be willing to say who you think is the most successful at that?

Edited

We are going around in circles here.

Like i said, the French doing more to intercept boats arriving & stored in Northern France would help.

The US apparently, mass deportations, rounding up of undocumented migrants, using economic muscle to get what they want.

Appreciate you wish to talk about Australia but i'm not sure we have anywhere willing to take the migrants, which would need to accept migrants here and new arrivals for quite some time before the message sank in - i wish we did have somewhere suitable.

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:24

HerewardtheSleepy · 06/08/2025 09:07

I voted "remain" but I cannot agree that the migrant boats situation has been made worse by Brexit.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

Ask Brexitier Chris Philp?

Former HO minister who said in a recent speech that Brexit certainly did make it worse.

I guess his view is ignored.

StepawayfromtheLindors · 06/08/2025 09:29

OP is correct: check Dublin Agreement online. We left this agreement when we left the EU.

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 09:32

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:22

We are going around in circles here.

Like i said, the French doing more to intercept boats arriving & stored in Northern France would help.

The US apparently, mass deportations, rounding up of undocumented migrants, using economic muscle to get what they want.

Appreciate you wish to talk about Australia but i'm not sure we have anywhere willing to take the migrants, which would need to accept migrants here and new arrivals for quite some time before the message sank in - i wish we did have somewhere suitable.

You don’t need to change anything to ask for that, they are already trying in any case.

Have you noticed in the press on what they do already? Tear gas and riot gear?

You can answer the top five however you like, leave out Australia if you need to avoid it.

The few countries that are dealing with the pressures - Poland, Italy to a degree, and Denmark are doing so despite the EU constraints not due to them. Eg Denmark is out of some obligations.

If the EU was as you say Germany wouldn’t be struggling with similar issues and political pressure.

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:40

Like i said, land borders are easier.

err i specifically mentioned Australia, what are you on about? perhaps read the post?

The problem the UK has, is that once they are here, its extremely difficult to deport and they know it.

Anyway, i'll leave you too it, seems you re not interested in solutions, just want to argue, sad.

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:42

StepawayfromtheLindors · 06/08/2025 09:29

OP is correct: check Dublin Agreement online. We left this agreement when we left the EU.

100% former Tory minister Chris Philp talked about this recently, we lost this because of Brexit and then failed negotiate a replacement agreement.

Philp ought to know.

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 09:48

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 09:40

Like i said, land borders are easier.

err i specifically mentioned Australia, what are you on about? perhaps read the post?

The problem the UK has, is that once they are here, its extremely difficult to deport and they know it.

Anyway, i'll leave you too it, seems you re not interested in solutions, just want to argue, sad.

That last line applies to your posts too it’s a chat site where people can have different opinions. It’s fine to just end without the attempt at insults btw.

Anyway whatever. Enjoy.

JHound · 06/08/2025 09:55

Given how much Trump has been flip-flopping lately on migrant workers / undocumented workers and farm workers, I wonder how a Reform government would fare when faced with demands from some parts of industry.

dizzydizzydizzy · 06/08/2025 10:34

I think the increase in immigration is due to fact that there is a general increase worldwide due to many wars, conflicts and oppressive regimes (Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan, Gaza etc).

However, Brexit has made the situation way harder to manage because we are no longer integrated into the EU data-sharing networks. Also the smuggling gangs are very clever and adaptable and probably know what information we used to share and have access to and what we now don't have.

AzurePanda · 06/08/2025 10:35

@Absolutely45 and how many illegal immigrants were returned from the UK under the Dublin Agreement?

EmeraldShamrock000 · 06/08/2025 10:38

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 08:02

Europe are dealing with this more than most other areas now.

Ireland certainly isn't, it is out of control. People arriving, dumping passport on arrival, every week there is another hotel closed to the public.
Crowds of single men on every corner, especially since February 22' the racism is raging.

EasternStandard · 06/08/2025 10:44

EmeraldShamrock000 · 06/08/2025 10:38

Ireland certainly isn't, it is out of control. People arriving, dumping passport on arrival, every week there is another hotel closed to the public.
Crowds of single men on every corner, especially since February 22' the racism is raging.

Oh I agree @EmeraldShamrock000I meant dealing with pressures more than anywhere else, including Ireland

Or not dealing with, but experiencing

TempestTost · 06/08/2025 10:51

Countries don't have to be in the EU to negotiate together, people realise this, right?

There are many countries not in the EU, or in any other similar entity, which negotiate all the time.

There are countries in Europe which are not in the EU and negotiate with EU countries.

All countries need to talk about problems is to talk about problems. INternational relations are nothing new.

EmeraldShamrock000 · 06/08/2025 11:56

I agree, Countries don't have to be part of the EU governing. The UK is part of Europe regardless of membership.

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 13:40

EmeraldShamrock000 · 06/08/2025 11:56

I agree, Countries don't have to be part of the EU governing. The UK is part of Europe regardless of membership.

But it is not part of the political european bloc, which is the EU, they will act in the best interests of the EU/member states, not for a 3rd countries.

So, perhaps from their point of view, the more economic migrants that leave the EU & come to the UK, the less they have to deport or house.

I feel sure that if migrants were leaving the UK for France, we would be in no rush to "police our borders" French TV would be full of British Police standing around laughing as migrants get in a dinghy for France - with many posters on here cheering!

Rather naïve to think otherwise, we also lost any levers, were we still in, we could have withheld budget payments etc which i believe Thatcher once did.

1984reallywasagoodbook · 06/08/2025 19:15

MiloMinderbinder925 · 05/08/2025 08:58

What are Reform going to do about this 'threat'?

They have four years to work it out. But the fact they are acknowledging it, means they’re further ahead than the other parties, depending on what you choose to think.

MiloMinderbinder925 · 06/08/2025 19:58

1984reallywasagoodbook · 06/08/2025 19:15

They have four years to work it out. But the fact they are acknowledging it, means they’re further ahead than the other parties, depending on what you choose to think.

They've had several years to consider solutions and offer some unfeasible ones in their manifesto such as taking people back to France.

To suggest that no one apart from Reform have acknowledged people coming over in boats is a strange thing to say.

Absolutely45 · 06/08/2025 20:04

1984reallywasagoodbook · 06/08/2025 19:15

They have four years to work it out. But the fact they are acknowledging it, means they’re further ahead than the other parties, depending on what you choose to think.

"Other" parties deal in reality, Reform deal in stirring up hatred, just as Farage did over Brexit.

Evidence? One Reform councillor said "gun down boats as they approach the coast"

This is who Reform voters are associating themselves with.

TinyIsMyNewt · 06/08/2025 20:32

FairHazelMentor · 06/08/2025 00:17

Ah, sure - thought you had a distinction already in mind. From, or extrapolated from:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2024/how-many-people-are-returned-from-the-uk

I tried to ballpark the calculations earlier, but clearly needed a coffee - with AI (and double checking) 8% for 2023 and 9.2% for 2024 is more accurate. And yes, its total applications over total returns.

I've also now used AI to run the same calc for earlier years, asking it to use the Home Office's published datasets.

I've spot-checked a few years for accuracy and saw some very minor inconsistencies (the table shows 32,244 applications for 2015 but the correct, final number looks to be 32,414) but the variances I saw were significant less than 1%, so it's probably down to Q4 estimates and later reconciliations, or something along those lines. Feel free to take it wish as large a pinch of salt as you deem appropriate.

. quoted wrong post.

TinyIsMyNewt · 06/08/2025 20:35

TempestTost · 06/08/2025 10:51

Countries don't have to be in the EU to negotiate together, people realise this, right?

There are many countries not in the EU, or in any other similar entity, which negotiate all the time.

There are countries in Europe which are not in the EU and negotiate with EU countries.

All countries need to talk about problems is to talk about problems. INternational relations are nothing new.

Obviously, but the relative bargaining positions of the parties are relevant to negotiating a favorable agreement, and is one of the main reasons for forming unions of any sort.

While the UK leaving the EU has made the EU economy meaningfully smaller, our economy is less than a fifth of the size of the EU's today. That impacts our relative bargaining position with other countries.

It can have positives when negotiating with nations that see themselves to be adversarial to the EU - e.g., we got a somewhat better deal with the US than the EU did on tariffs, and perhaps we would be in a preferable position to negotiate with China (although strengthening economic ties with China is fraught for other reasons, and could sour relations with the US). With most countries though, our bargaining position is simply not as strong as the EU's (and is even weaker than it was when we were part of the EU, which is when many existing agreements were negotiated).

When we left the EU, we lost access to existing agreements (including return agreements). Everything we have successfully negotiated since is worse than what we had before.

There's also the inconvenient matter of geography - we're an isolated island, with a dwindling economy, whose closest trading partners are the EU. If we start negotiating deals or taking anti-immigration steps that are adverse to the EU's interests, that could result in the EU - upon whom we are always likely to be economically reliant, taking economic steps against us.

Posters seem to think we could go the Austalian route but that's a fantasy. Austalia is its region's economic powerhouse and most of its trade is with China and the US, who are largely unimpacted by Austalia's policies towards asylum seekers. There's no local trade partner for them to piss off.

Australia also has a geographic advantage. It can intercept boats before they reach its waters, and have a lot of local countries who are heavily reliant on trade with Australia but are largely irrelevant to Austalia's economy. That means Austalia can negotiate offshore processing deals that are likely a fantasy for us.

Yes, there was Rwanda but the UK Supreme Court ruled that plan illegal since Rwanda wasn't deemed a safe country. Farage seems to think that, if we leave the ECHR, that would get around the issue - I don't think so; the court cited other international treaties (like UN ones) in reaching it's decision.

The UK, as a standalone economic powerhouse, has had it's day. Unfortunately, we're now also on the outside of the union that continued to give us outsized relevance, and is always likely to be our major trading partner.

The way to make our already bad situation worse would be to elect Farage or some other government that is antagonistic towards the EU. If any country is going to end up the de facto "51st state", it might well be the UK rather the Canada. For so long as the US is in something of a trade war with Europe, it might prop us up a little - and Farage does seem to recognize that, hence his cozying up.

I do appreciate that there is more to Brexit than economic considerations (a decent chunk of leave voters felt it would be the right thing even if the economic consequences were poor) but I think we ultimately need to accept that our diminished standing on the world stage will have far reaching consequences, and those likely includes our ability to deal with illegal immigration. There is a flip side on immigration, though, in that it does give us the ability to control legal immigration (which is far larger, in raw numbers) than as part of the EU. That's certainty a significant positive to highlight and we absolutely do need to reduce our reliance on high levels of legal immigration, we just haven't yet figured out how to navigate the birth rate issue and its relation to the welfare state (particularly pensions).

(Formerly FairHazelMentor - deleted my account to avoid the temptation of posting and procrastinating but have no willpower...though I suspect my windbaggery is identifiable enough)

MyLimeGuide · 07/08/2025 17:09

MiloMinderbinder925 · 06/08/2025 19:58

They've had several years to consider solutions and offer some unfeasible ones in their manifesto such as taking people back to France.

To suggest that no one apart from Reform have acknowledged people coming over in boats is a strange thing to say.

Its not strange. Its correct. Its literally been reforms mantra for years.

AzurePanda · 14/08/2025 21:22

@TinyIsMyNewt what do you mean “everything we had before” - what did we have beside the Dublin Agreement? Given this agreement resulted in a very small number of illegal immigrants being deported and a slightly greater number ending up being returned to the uk how was that helping the situation?

Genuinely interested to hear about other EU agreements that helped the situation as I haven’t been able to find any.

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