AIBU to not understand why people will vote Reform when Brexit is the reason for the migrant boats.

[LIGHTSNACKER]

We did not have a boat problem before Brexit due to the rules/agreements, so why do people want to vote for the man who had a big part in causing this and his company party?

On the pp you can use another location, just not send people back.

No it isn't. However that doesn't alter the fact that large parts of the world are becoming uninhabitable and millions of people will be on the move shortly.

The problem doesn't have an answer.

I doubt an increase of a few hundred deaths adequately explains a drop of about 1,000,000 asylum seekers, particularly when figures for the deaths were not even published until after the drop in numbers.

The number of pushbacks (almost always illegal) and pullbacks (often illegal, but not always) has certainly increased - and is a meaningful factor in the reduction.

Pullbacks, though, require the "pulling back" country (in the EU's case, Turkey, Morocco and most problematical, Libya) to agree to do the pulling - I don’t think the UK can realistically expect France to feel similarly incentivized!

If we tried to go all-in on illegal pusbacks to France and other EU nations - absent their agreement- we can reasonably expect heavy sanctions.

And without any meaningful agreements with Non-EU states allowing us to return unsuccessful applicants (the sorts of Agreements we used to have access to, but lost via Brexit), we just don't have the ability to control our borders without using a level of military force that sees us murder asylum seekers in the channel, or trying to forcibly and illegally enter EU country's territory to disembark them there.

Ik that’s why I’m saying it’s not relevant to us. We can’t ask France to do pull backs. Although we’ve had a few tear gas things on beaches I’m pretty sure it’s at almost zero compared to what is done elsewhere.

That’s a reason why I don’t think Brexit is a factor.

If you look at what works it’s hardline. Aus, Poland, Denmark to a lesser extent. It’s not really EU related otherwise Greece and other countries wouldn’t be struggling so much.

Anything to do with the idea of control is third country location, physical barrier or to lesser extent Danish law changes (I think they said no to a few EU restrictions so have more freedom on that).

I just don't think they're that bothered. They just want people to shut up about it.

Smash the gangs isn't a policy, it's just a soundbite to make it sound like they're doing something.

Arresting drug dealers doesn't stop drugs coming in. They can't be that ignorant.

A change of government to the open borders party with a human rights lawyer as a PM might have something to do with the increase as well.

The Tories were at least trying to bring in deterrents.

Yes I’m not saying we’re doing well tbf. Crossings have gone up this year and so far Labour have cancelled a deterrent.

We can't unilaterally deport people though - the country we are trying to deport them to has to agree. We lost access to relevant treaties when leaving the EU, and haven't successfully been able to negotiate replacements.

With the apparent exception of dealing with Donald Trump, being part of a large bloc of countries was, indeed, pretty useful when it came to negotiating favorable agreements with non-EU countries, and not just on trade.

Not to condone any of that, but funny how we're told we basically have to have the most liberal and soft asylum policy out there and can't deport anyone or stop a boat because ECHR. Funny how Poland just don't give a shit and they're in the EU and ECHR.

You either protect your border or you don't.

Because they don't think! Neither will they listen.

It’s easier to cope if people don’t arrive. Look at Greece, EU deporting or not they are overwhelmed.

Then look at Poland who just goes for a barrier or Aus.

EU should be suspending asylum claims for a period of time to get things under control, as should we.

We shouldn't wait till the point where every EU government is hard right (AFD/Le Pen/Orban/Farage/Meloni etc) which is all because of immigration. Nobody wants this but we're too weak to stop it.

Our countries are falling apart.

The Tories "tried" to bring in a deterent, which was headline-grabbing and a lovely bit of PR, but that was widely recognized to be highly vulnerable to a court challenge - and, sure enough and to nobody's surprise, it was deemed illegal.

Its almost as if the Tories wanted to appear as though they were tackling the issue but either didnt want to or knew that they didn't have a workable plan.

Starmer has taken a harder approach than the Tories - albeit, there's not anything really that can be legally done (outside of negotiating agreements thst nobody wants to give us) and the crisis is intensifying despite his harder line.

It's a shame Farage and the dimwitted proponents of Brexit caused this - and I actually don't blame Brexit voters because if the Government itself didnt realize the issue before it was too late, you cant blame the voters.

That said, to now reward Farage for creating this mess is a total embarrassment.

The one thing I'm looking forward to about the likely Reform government is watching its voters realize that - on asylum seekers - Reform are all rhetoric and are even less equipped to deal with the issue than Tories and Labour.

That said - those voters probably wont learn their lesson and will just move onto the next snake oil salesman who, like Farage, will fuck them over whilst promising the undeliverable.

So you’re more pro Labour on this issue. The court situation was resolved in any case.

Starmer isn’t hardline hence the numbers. If the recent ‘one in one out’ announcement doesn’t happen or do much then Labour will struggle at the next GE.

@FairHazelMentor

I voted Remain, but we took more migrants under the DA than we ever returned. I don’t think we can blame all of this on Brexit.

Its almost as if the Tories wanted to appear as though they were tackling the issue but either didnt want to or knew that they didn't have a workable plan.

You honestly think even Starmer sees 'smash the gangs' as a workable plan?

I know he's useless but he's not a complete idiot. He has to at least pretend he's doing something. Even if smashing the gangs was the genuine policy, we could be out arresting all kinds of human traffickers. We haven't been.

The one thing I'm looking forward to about the likely Reform government is watching its voters realize that - on asylum seekers - Reform are all rhetoric and are even less equipped to deal with the issue than Tories and Labour.

Farage is a fraud so you're probably right. The advantage he has over the uni-party though is he at least wants to stop it. It was Farage that first highlighted the boat crossings and then the hotels.

Yes I agree that Farage is a snake oil salesman who prob won't do what he says (or won't be able to) but how is that any different to Labour and the Tories? All people want is abit of competence and someone who looks to be working on their behalf rather than globalist bodies/themselves. I would love a Margaret Thatcher style figure - things would be very different with her in charge.

While crossings are up,
deportations are also up under Labour, and the pilot agreement with France is something.

But truthfully, there's not all that much we can do, post-Brexit, on a unilateral basis, save perhaps for deterents of dubious legality. The practical problem with illegal deterents is how our trading partners react, particularly if it means adding to their asylum burden.

The UK is now the junior party in relation to the EU. If the EU thinks our policies - particularly illegal ones - are to the EU's detrminent, there's a high likelihood of sanctions.

Austalia can get away with dubious practices because it's major trading partners (China, the US and Japan) are unaffected by Austalia's immigration policies.

We're a diminishing geopolitical power, and more of our major trading partners are within the EU, who are directly impacted by our border policies. We just dont have the leverage anymore.

But Macron was literally here the other week telling Starmer and his government to stop with all the incentives and cash and prizes that's bringing people to Calais in their droves because he doesn't want them in France either.

Our hands might be tied to do some of the more drastic measures that would stop it, but we bring a lot of it on ourselves. We're far too soft and tolerant.

I don’t think that’s the case. If the Macron thing doesn’t work both France and the UK could easily agree on an Aus style policy.

ETA not pre GE, but after both.

To add, @User32459 , "smash the gangs" could work on paper but, in practice, requires international cooperation that seems to be hard for the UK to come by, now.

And, even if it did prove a longterm success (which it wont, not least because starmer wont get re-elected but also that international cooperation peice), its a partial solution only, and wouldnt get us back to pre-Brexit levels.

Its less of a fairytale than the Rwanda plan, more serious than "Stop the Boats" but will Starmer be able to deliver it? Probably not.

And it's an embarrassingly shit name for a policy.

It's like declaring war on drug dealers (i.e. 'the war on drugs'). It's not stopped the flow of drugs.

It couldn’t tbf and hasn’t anywhere. Look at what it takes to get numbers down.

We're far less generous than France. Macron is playing politics there.

The idea that we're a particularly generous country to asylum seekers is a false one - we're now just a particularly toothless one when it comes to our ability to deport unsuccessful ones.

There were plenty of small boats before Brexit. And as the EU said we had to take them, people thought Brexit would help to gain control of our own borders.

It turned out the government just have no interest in securing our borders.