Two Tier’s days are numbered

[Jennps]

Starmer will be gone by this time next year.

This government is imploding right before our eyes, despite a huge (but shallow) majority. People didn’t vote for Labour, as much as they voted against the diabolical Tories in the last election.

Coupled with that, the calibre of MPs in general, but especially the new Labour MPs is shockingly low. These are people who have never had real jobs, and found themselves accidentally in charge of the country. Most them would struggle to use a calculator, let alone understand how the economy works.

Bond markets are already punishing ‘Rachel from accounts’. Cue the insults about misogyny despite the fact that calling her from accounts is an insult to those who actually work in accounts. Gilts are already above when Truss was in charge, meaning the situation is worse. Crazy tax hikes are on the way. Top rate taxpayers are leaving the country in droves.

Boat crossings are at a record high. Unemployment is up, inflation is on the increase. The country is at very real risk of recession.

If Starmer falls, his replacement candidates are terrifying. It’s possible the government could fall within 2 years or so. The chances of Reform getting into power will increase many fold if there is a snap election in that timeframe.

Wonder if the economically illiterate, constantly wanting to constantly shake the magic money tree, are ready for Reform.

That washed up old Marxist hasbeen never knows when to give up, does he? He’ll be 80 at the next election.

Just teasing ya

At the next election? Maybe. Who knows?
Now? Nope.

Politics is getting more and more f-ing ridiculous!!!( apologies for bad language). Have those two noticed they don't live in Gaza? Or that it's not a war the UK is in charge of?

Are they really setting up a party devoted to discussing Gaza??

Good. More time for the Labour implosion to play out.

Labour (and almost certainly Starmer) aren’t going anywhere for 4 years. Your whole premise is nonsense.

Denial won’t get you anywhere. Starmer poll ratings are there for all to see.

Being so blind and tribal only makes you look naive.

The poll ratings now are about as relevant as a four year weather forecast. Completely meaningless.

I’m not denying the poll ratings. I’m saying he’s going nowhere and neither is the Labour government. A huge majority means not having to care too much about polls. Yet anyway.

Governments do fall. There could be a vote of no confidence. Is the government looking confident? Do people feel confidence the government know what they are doing (ahem). Could there be a run on the pound some time? Are the IMF getting the kneelers out for the UK begging bowl people?

Or Labour could lose their majority as too many of their lunatic MPs follow the Great Leader Jeremy. In order to follow the Muslim/Glasto vote.

Anything could happen!

Do you have any idea how a vote of no confidence works? Looks like no.
Governments with huge majorities don’t lose them.
Only a tiny number of MPs will be interested in another party .
Run on the pound/IMF talk is nonsense.
You lost. Get over it.

A vote of no confidence would be turkeys voting for Christmas.

Well I admire your confidence. It's not as if Labour has form about going to the IMF for a bail out.

And it's not looking like Sir Keir has his party 100% under control....So possibly can't predict what these feisty MPs might think of doing next.

Yes agreed. The Conservatives lost and I did vote for them but in a fairly grumpy way. So I wasn't that devastated at the time, and also because at the time Keir Starmer told everyone he knew what he was doing so I was hopeful things may not go too badly. Hindsight you see...

Well it does imply a certain lack of sanity and self-preservation. But we are talking about Labour MPs here. Or former Labour MPs that join Jezza's Gaza-party

Ok, pick another source, though I’m sure you think you know better than all of them.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/

https://www.bevanfoundation.org/views/the-economy-is-not-like-a-household-budget/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/04/30/governments-are-nothing-like-households/

https://berl.co.nz/economic-insights/governments-and-households-budgets-same-or-different

https://scholarship.miami.edu/esploro/outputs/blog/The-Government-Is-Not-a-Household/991031801621002976

https://iea.org.uk/the-household-fallacy-fallacy/

This post has confirmed my suspicion that you’re just trolling so I’ll leave it there.

Labour are going to get an absolute pasting at the Welsh elections next year.

Its only a a matter of time before there is another by election because of their many ‘superstar’ MPs show themselves up to be the idiots they are.

There is a cabinet reshuffle coming which will cause him to get grief frontier the ones remaining.

And if all else see that Rayner is busy stabbing everyone in the back to take over from Two Tier. Nasty, poisonous individuals.

Well this is all supposition isn’t it?
And a criticism of nastiness from a Tory is just laughable.

Oh don't be so weedy. I've replied to each of your points as asked by you. To me. The fact you then strop off accusing me of being a "troll" just because I disagree with you seems a little unfair.

Poor old insulted me....

Of course Starmer’s - or another Labour PM’s - government isn’t going to fall before a General Election. The whole idea’s ridiculous.

What will happen is that this utterly useless nasal-voiced twat PM and his utterly useless Chancellor will both be gone in 18 months, from panicky re-shuffle and party unrest.

Then we’ll have Rayner and McFadden until the next General Election. When Labour will lose catastrophically.

FWIW, I don’t think Reform will do very well. The Tories will be back in.

Did you read it??

How on earth will a 'panicky reshuffle and party unrest' get rid of Starmer and Reeves?

All sources agree that there was a black hole in the public finances when Labour took over.

The disagreement is around the size of this hole. All sources agree that it was 'at least' 9 billion pounds. Most sources accept it was at least 12.5 to 13.5 billion. Labour claim it was higher than that because as you say - they include the cost of increasing public sector pay rises. Everyone also agrees that over the past 14 years public sector pay has fallen significantly behind pay in the private sector, leaving some public sector workers reliant on food banks, UC and housing allowance during the cost of living crisis. Average teachers' pay in 9% lower in 2023 than it was in 2010.

The right loves to point to the very small number of train drivers as an example of how 'very well paid' public sector workers are - but you know that it's one of the only blue collar jobs in the state sector that does pay a high wage. And by 'high wage' I mean a hugely responsible role where the majority of people are paid what an IT manager might make in the early days of their career. I appreciate your average Tory is disgusted by the idea that a blue collar worker might make what a middle manager in the private sector makes, but hey ho, there are a significant number of plumbers, builders and electricians making 50K + salaries, and this is the sort of talent pool you're drawing from.

"Labour represents people who work for the state represented by unions, people who are on benefits, immigrants and asylum seekers. All worthy in their own right but a big change from who Labour originally spoke for (the working person)."

Labour represents anyone who uses the NHS. They represent anyone who relies on the NHS - presumably that's you and the people who work for you. Does anyone who works for you claim UC, housing allowance, child benefit, support with their council tax? Do your employees use the NHS or do you pay for all of them to have private healthcare? Were any of your employees educated in the state sector?

Re: 'Labour represents immigrants' - you appreciate that the vast majority of immigrants are also working people?

You appreciate the majority of those who claim benefits are also working people?

You appreciate the unions exist to represent the interests of working people? Including the people who work for you?

"As there have been more conservative governments than Labour, the country generally agrees with the latter approach"

We have a 'first past the post' voting system. This means that most governments are elected by a minority of voters. The majority of voters in the UK have traditionally voted for parties that are to the left of the Conservatives, therefore suggesting that 'most people prefer the Conservative approach' is factually incorrect.

I wasn’t saying they’ll go at the same time.

Starmer will shuffle Reeves out of the Treasury.

The party will turn on Starmer over ideology and because he’s a liability. There are a lot of very nervous Labour MPs who fear rejection at the next General Election. Labour losing one of its safest seats has made its MPs and members very twitchy. Party turbulence will grow and grow. He’ll resign.

The ideology matters more to the members. I suspect that Israel will prove the tipping point issue in that respect. There are an awful lot of Israel-haters in grassroots Labour.

In 18 months we’ll be halfway through the Parliament. Labour MPs will believe a different PM needs the second half to try to rescue their chances.

I agree to a degree. I don’t think Starmer will get rid of Reeves. They need each other to stay in. They do have the left of the party chomping at the bit though on spend. And that might force some stuff which destabilises them.