Starmer is about to reverse Brexit

[TheQuirkyMaker]

Is is right that an unpopular govt can reverse the democratic wishes of the UK to have nothing to do with Europe?

This was a poll of ‘how did you vote?’ (note NOT ‘how do you intend to vote?’) in 2016:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/520954/brexit-votes-by-age/

It’s not particularly marginal - the margin of error both in the ‘highest age group’ and the ‘lowest age group’ would gave to be really significant to reverse the conclusion that as the (a bit Leave) oldest generation dies, the (a lot Remain) youngest generation will be sufficient- along with the Remainers in the young people too young to vote - to reverse the very marginal final outcome.

You forgot about allowing bent bananas.

The actual regulation, Commission Regulation (EC) No. 2257/94, sets minimum standards for bananas, stating that they should be free from malformation or "abnormal curvature"
Although this regulation required that bananas as a minimum standard must not have "abnormal curvature" no definition or guidance was given about the degree of curvature that would be regarded as "abnormal". 🤔

And of course "smaller condoms".
n 1994 The Sun reported that the EU was mandating smaller condom sizes, refusing to accommodate for what they believed were ‘larger British assets.’

The EU says the standards The Sun was referring to were voluntary, not mandatory, and did not relate to size. “Any standardisation work in the area of condoms concentrates on quality and not on
length,” the EU says.

Also the British banger under threat.
In 2001 The Sun breathlessly reported on the issue. “The traditional British banger is under threat from Brussels chiefs who want to REDUCE the amount of meat in it. Under strict UK regulations pork bangers must contain at least 65 per cent meat and other varieties 50 per cent. But the EU wants to slash that figure to just 36 per cent,” the story said.

The OBR did not and does not have the resources or the remit to carry out a full Brexit analysis. Their 4% is an assumption (and they use the word assumption in their reports) - based on the average of around a dozen projections from various economists/think tanks and the OBR basically stuck a pin in the middle. Several of those external calculations estimated a minimal effect on the economy or even a positive, others somewhat lower than 4%, some higher.
*
The OBR's subsequent reports are aimed at maintaining that 4%, despite for example immigration being much higher than expected when most of the external reports had assumed lower immigration being a negative. The OBR later claimed that immigration was not a factor in their assumption figure when it was in the projections they took their average figure from.

*
Clearly 'Brexit uncertainty' was a problem after the 2016 vote but that is the same with any new venture. The uncertainty would have been much less if there had not been so many people trying to overturn the referendum result for three and a half years.

Clearly 'Brexit uncertainty' was a problem after the 2016 vote but that is the same with any new venture. The uncertainty would have been much less if there had not been so many people trying to overturn the referendum result for three and a half years.

Anecdotally, the uncertainty was not due to those trying to overturn the result, but the extreme lack of clarity about what Brexit was - before the vote, wild claims were made (and largely unchallenged) and it took a long time (and in fact is still happening) for people to realise that the Brexit they ‘made up in their head due to propaganda and lack of clear information’ might not be the Brexit someone else envisaged, and certainly wasn’t available in real world negotiations.

brexitbarbie

There was this though in 2008;

Outraged Sainsbury's drops plan to sell wonky vegetables because staff could be prosecuted.
A leading supermarket has been forced to ditch a healthy eating campaign at the eleventh hour after discovering its staff could be individually prosecuted under EU regulations.
The retailer has written to the EU Agriculture Commissioner, Mariann Fischer Boel, and Environment Secretary Hilary Benn expressing its concerns over 'bonkers' regulations and has launched an online poll for customers to join the fight for 'wonky' fruit and veg.
'We're not allowed to use up to 20 per cent of what's produced in this country and in the current crunch climate, we cannot continue to waste this much food before it even leaves the farms.'
Strict EU regulations dictate the shape, size and appearance of 36 fruits and vegetables. For example, it is illegal for supermarkets to sell a cauliflower less than 11cm in diameter, carrots that are forked (with more than one root) or onions with less than two-thirds covered in skin.
The regulations have long caused outrage among farmers, retailers and environmentalists, including the Prince of Wales, whose own 'knobbly' organic carrots have been rejected for sale.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/nov/02/sainsbury-supermarkets-eu-regulation-halloween

I wish he was as it should never have happened in the first place having a referendum on something so complex was absolutely ridiculous

but he isn’t he is though creating a closer working relationship with the EU which will be positive

Thank you for engaging with an actual response on this. Which studies projected an increase in productivity out of interest? The set of forecasting assumptions cited by the OBR in setting their -4% figure all show a decrease.

Do you have analyses that set out the economic benefits of Brexit or clear forecasting of how it will cost the UK to 'get involved with the EU'? Just because if posters are claiming this, I'd be genuinely interested to see what assumptions or data it's based on.

I haven't got time to look for the report now. I think it may have been only one projection that showed a positive and I have a vague recollection of the OBR not including all the projections (excluding one each at either end of the scale?)

Do you have analyses that set out the economic benefits of Brexit or clear forecasting of how it will cost the UK to 'get involved with the EU'?

Unfortunately not.

excluding one each at either end of the scale

to calculate their average

Thank you - excluding the outliers (at both ends) doesn't surprise me at all.

The Sun???? Lol

The demographics show a split between more than just age. There was a notable - that's notable, not total - Leave/Remain divide between economic status and the level of education.

Broadly speaking, the bulk of Leave voters fell into one or more of the categories of older voters, lower economic status, and lower academic qualifications.
The reverse being broadly true for Remainers.

Yes, age was not the only factor BUT it is the one that will have changed in the intervening years (older voters dying / younger people becoming able to vote) such a way as to change the overall result.

Absolutely. And, correct my memory if I'm wrong, but do I recall some rather shameful attempts by the Tories to keep the youngest voters out of the referendum as they were well aware the young, by and large, wouldn't have voted to leave?

I'm at work so can't check that right now.

Ahh yes, The Sun; that famed bastion of verifiable fact. Much like the Daily Fail. They did come in frightfully handy during the pandemic, though, when toilet paper was at a premium.

Wen a poster is reduced to getting Chat GBT to make their argument for them, you know it's a load of shite.😆

And noted.

Westminster never learns.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/labour-remainers-brexit-uk-eu-leavers

They just won't give up

an older article but still valid:

iea.org.uk/are-brexit-voters-really-less-intelligent-than-remainers/

From the BBC -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo

Good, one thing he will hopefully achieve - a lot of the people who voted for leave will have died by now, and lessons learnt as to hold a proper referendum

So, a minimum of 6% drop in trade with Europe, or a maximum of 30% depending on which bias you choose to prefer. It's most likely to be somewhere in the middle of the two figures.

Even if the lower (6%) is to be believed, that's a significant drop in trade and therefore, tax revenue.

You genuinely believe that an 'article' by the IEA has merit?

My guess would be that you don't know the identity, background, or political ideology of the IEA, but in your futile impotence to show Brexit was anything other than the shambolic disaster it was always going to be, are willing to parrot any source you feel will help you die on the hill you've chosen.

Ironic, given the subject matter.

For anyone curious about my last comment, the 'academic' source that @brexitbarbie was limply attempting to overturn our arguments with in the their first link was the IEA (Institute of Economic Affairs).

They have quite the extensive rap-sheet but, in the spirit of brevity, they are a Thatcherite right-wing think-tank who, in addition to being pro-Brexit, infamously published a large amount of 'articles' in support of climate change denial, took large donations from tobacco companies and then lobbied on behalf of those companies, and push for the abolition of the NHS in favour of a privatised US-style model of health care.

They are an utterly deplorable, morally bankrupt, organisation who, in the opinion of many, should have been shut down years ago.

Hold a referendum?

He couldn't hold a knife & fork the right way up.

It's quite amusing the see all the Remoaners Remainers frothing at the mouth because 5 years on they still can't accept they lost.

This is from the Spectator, (rest behind a paywall) and sums it up nicely

"But the one I’m most pleased with, though the least used, is Le Grand Bouder, or – to translate it into a lovelier and more popular language – The Big Sulk.
Referring to the inability of some Remainers to get over the fact that they lost the referendum fair and square, this condition often leads to Brexit Derangement Syndrome. I’ve seen this mental affliction transport its followers into a realm of magical thinking only reached otherwise by the most extreme of the trans-brigade. For instance, cult members will often identify as younger than they are; think of the then 68-year-old Ian McEwan relishing the idea of ‘oldsters, Brexiters, freshly in their graves’. During a social media spat, a Remainer told me to move over and make way for the youth, of which he was one – he’s three years older than me!
One can only imagine what these poor befuddled souls are going through now, with the right (which these days pretty much refers to anyone who doesn’t believe in literally limitless immigration) on the up throughout mainland Europe. In extreme cases, Brits suffering from the terminal stage of BDS even left these sceptered isles in order to seek ‘refuge’ in France and Germany from the alleged crypto-fascism of Brexit Britain."