Crime statistics by country of origin

[Zebedee999]

The government is proposing to publish crime statistics by country of origin.

A few weeks ago I mentioned some statistics from other European countries (and in fact the UK) showing that sex crimes against women by men of certain countries are 40 times those of the indigenous British. I got called racist (the stats are by country not race) and of course the stats were removed as racist.

Personally I think women's safety should be the overriding priority and such statistics should be used as part of a process to determine who can move to the UK. Why allow in men who statistically will carry out 40 times the sex crimes of the indigenous population? Let in women by all means.

I am genuinely interested why my view is racist when to me it is simply prioritising women's safety. AIBU to want immigration processes to prioritise women's safety?

I think going back 5 to 6 generations would be fair.

You do understand how stats work, right? Representation accounts for relativity. If 85% of men are white, then yes majority of convicts will be white.

Ever heard of per capita crime stats?

Which type? How many generations? Are you pure?

In my simple mind "British" is someone who has or could have a British passport

Anyone who successfully applies for British citizenship can get a British passport, like my Kurdish friends who were formerly Turkish citizens.

They came here as refugees around 2010, the Turkish government claimed to have no knowledge of them when they tried to renew their Turkish passports and they are now British citizens. I've had clients from China, Zimbabwe and Malawi who have become British citizens, too and had a neighbour from Senegal who was a British citizen.

@Keirawr

Very patronising. Of course I understand statistics. I was focusing on the OP's concern about women's safety.

I’m an ethnic minority, couldn’t give a fuck about mens feelings when it comes to the safety of women. If you come from a particularly rapey country then own it, We need to stop relying on do-gooders and anti-racists to hide mens crimes.

You can use the excuse of social deprivation etc but that doesn’t get anyone unraped does it? It doesn’t make them any less a danger to women does it? I’m really sick of the “understanding” we are supposed to extend to violent men just because they are brown or black. Fuck em (also fuck all the white rapists too, I really don’t give a shit if anyone feels stigmatised, we should have learned after the grooming gangs).

Signed a brown woman.

Most people in this country still (not everyone of course but.most) if say a greatgrandparent was from here, are likely to be able to trace their ancestors back to the same place for hundreds of years, as the majority of people didn't move around or even leave their county until relatively recently.

Looks like the usual attempts to obfuscate the statistics and cry racism.
If an Afghan man is 40 times more likely to be a rapist than an Indian man, I want to know that.
If a British man is 30 times more likely to be a paedophile than a Polish man, I want to know that as well.

The claims that foreigners are more likely to commit sex crimes can swept away by publishing these statistics.

Notice how the government has dragged its heels on publishing these figures. Tories were the same. The establishment have done everything they can to keep these stats from the public while running an open borders program.

Even now they are trying to do everything to delay the publishing of the numbers, saying that it will take until the end of the year to publish them. Wonder why it takes that long? Something clearly not right. Wonder if they’ll try and interfere with the numbers and whether we’ll be able to trust them.

74% of britain is white british so you’d certainly expect the majority of crimes to be committed by the white british population. However it is still possible that other groups are disproportionately more likely to commit certain crimes. Since you presumably don’t think this to be the case, would you support the government releasing data on country of origin of perpetrators as, if you are right, it would be a fantastic anti-racism measure combat theories that some groups are more dangerous than others eg pakistani grooming gangs.

The problem with such analysis is that the two sample sizes are so different that a tiny chance variation can massively skew the data.

”sex crimes against women by men of certain countries are 40 times those of the indigenous British”

The “certain countries” will be countries where foreign nationals from there will only number in the few thousands compared to the indigenous British who number in the ten of millions.

Part of good statistical analysis is to understand the skewing impact that vastly different sample sizes can cause. Journalists are being irresponsible to directly compare large sample sizes to tiny sample sizes in order to conclude likelihood.

As an example, say 1 million indigenous British have a 100 murderers a year, while out of only 500 Icelanders there is only 1 murderer. Because the sample sizes are too different, it is statistically suspect to directly compare them to declare that Icelanders are 20x more likely to be murderers than British.

The more disparate the sample sizes, the less comparable they are. Journalist that do this are incorrect to do so. It’s one of the things we are trained not to do in statistical analysis because it gives false conclusions.

Never heard of "Statistics, damned statistics and lies"? Statistics are not facts. A fact that the OP appears to be unaware of. In the USA, there are 34% of the residents on death row are black compared to 14.4% in the general population. 55% of all defendants convicted of murder are African-American. Therefore black people are more likely to commit murder than their white neighbours. Statistically.

Let's ignore the statistics that say that black people are 8 times more likely to be wrongfully convicted of murder; that studies overwhelmingly show that black people are more likely to be charged with capital murder than white people; and that there is clear and documented police bias against black people.

Statistics are not facts. They are extrapolations, and like all extrapolations, they are subject to error and bias including faulty correlations, poor sampling methods, overgeneralisation, and the misuse or misinterpretation of statistical concepts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics

@Keirawr The genuine left are more likely to be more socially conservative so less likely to be on the side saying its racist to publish these stats. It's bleeding heart liberals that can't see the wood for the trees when it comes to anything immigration based.

My husband is British by nationality but also of Indian origin. Perhaps India is overrepresented in these crime stats? But the vast majority of Indians are not sex abusers.

You can’t know that by directly comparing populations in the tens of millions to populations in the tens of thousands or less.

Some Labour MP recently called the grooming gang issue as being dog whistle politics. Presumably because it largely affects only young girls so should be annoyed. Much like the dangers of trans women in women only spaces or the subject of this post which is likewise dismissed as racist / dog whistle. All these things affect women's safety so immediately has to be closed down as racist. Even here on MN many posters jump on the racist band wagon rather than caring about women's safety issues.
I've questioned the link between sexual offences by men from certain countries 4 times now on MN and 3 times that question has so far been removed because it's racist. Why is women's safety at the absolute bottom of so many people's values including the Labour WOMAN MP who calls grooming gangs simply dog whistle politics and brushes it off as unimportant.

I'd like to see sexual assault and violent crime broken down by race.

I know for overall crime, once you control for by capita, black people commit the most.

In which case I apologise. My error.

You do not understand statistics. Statistics of this nature are only meaningful if done per capita, as they have been on the continent and to a lesser degree by the UK government. It's per capita that allows comparisons to be made else you'll come to ridiculous conclusions as you have done.

Keirawr there are always some people with zero understanding of per capita on these threads. Unbelievable isn't it?

That was Lucy Powell that thinks that rape of young girls is no big deal.

Why does Labour hate women so much.

Remember this when you are next voting. That what these people really think.

The few statistics I have seen simply considered crimes by British citizens and non British citizens (by country). They didn't consider where British citizens came from before that. The European stats that are freely available are similar.

Anyway how the UK government will do it remains to be seen, will they be open and honest, or will they try and be clever and just say "all criminals could be British if they applied and got asylum ergo all criminals are British and none are foreign at all" which is what you seem to be arguing for?

A problem can't be fixed if we don't know it exists, and some possibly racist beliefs could be shown to be misguided, so publishing this data could be helpful. On the other hand, it could also stir up problems. No easy answers there.

It will be interesting to see, and I hope, will dispel some myths. I firmly believe that data like this should never be hidden. That does more harm than not publishing it IMO.

It may also highlight trends that allow for the planning of services by local council, so I'm in favour. But I've never felt the need to do anything ghastly like attack migrant hostels.

Please will you stand for Parliament at the next election? Then PM? Please!

The current government can't tell you what a woman is, and are now saying grooming gangs is just dog whistle politics. What have women done to deserve this government. You are a breath of fresh air thanks.