To be really worried about Reform?

[FiveHorse]

Just that really. They’re predicted to gain the most from the upcoming elections, if this carries on could we see a reform government at the next general elections? Or is it press scaremongering as usual?

It's really not.

nonsense

Piffle!

No, but Ursula von der Leyen recently indicated that Ukraine could join the EU before 2030. Ukraine's pre-war population was 44 million.

Good for him. He saw discord and capitalised on it.

Ukraine joining the EU wasn't used by Vote Leave as an argument for Brexit

He certainly has. He's made a fortune.

no

I was replying to @2dogsandabudgie
who said:

”I want the small boat crossings to stop.
From 27th to 29th April this year, so just 3 days another 1152 migrants have arrived here by small boat.”

It seems that Reform supporters have a problem with small boats (that wasn’t an issue before Brexit).

The Conservative government relied upon the ECHR to prevent disclosure of Johnson's whatsapps.
It was used to restrict corporal punishment in schools. It was relied upon to lift the ban on gay people serving in the military. And decriminalising homosexuality in NI. And ensuring private companies respect the religious freedom of their employees.

And it is built in to the Good Friday Agreement (appreciate some people dont much care about peace in NI but I do)

To be really worried about Reform? The title of this Thread.
Worried? I sure am worried about the state of the other parties. The Tories totally buggered up 14 years. BTW I am a member of the Conservative Party and I despair at their incompetence.
Labour campaigned on being better. They are not. They had no plan they had been given access to the Govt accounts before the election.
Their first move was to cancel the Winter Fuel Allowance because they had discovered a black hole of £22bn. Did they hoard the money from the pensioners? NO they gave it to their Union Bosses because the Union asked for it. No other reason necessary.
We want fewer migrants for many reasons. Has it become an invasion? Maybe it has.
There is a Think Tank that wants everyone over 16 to be able to vote in our Elections. Their estimate is that it would add over 4million voters. Legal or illegal Citizens of UK or not.
Labour and LibDems are in denial about the extra 4 million.
Come on Nigel take charge soon please.

Some figures and bar chart for the EU here - clearly not just a problem for the UK;
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/03/eu-asylum-requests-down-by-11-in-2024-but-still-exceed-one-million

The last asylum crisis in Europe was 2015/2016. Surely the difference between then and now is that countries such as Germany and Sweden are no longer welcoming asylum seekers with open arms (Angela Merkel famously accepted over 1 million refugees in 2015/16) - a hardline approach towards asylum seekers in other European countries is obviously going to push more asylum seekers towards the UK;

Yep and is playing the long game.

Hear hear

I remember Albania and Serbia being mentioned though.

Just a few points on the immigration debate.

Firstly the majority of immigration to the UK is legal migration. In 2024 1.2 million people legally migrated to the UK, 1 million were non EU nationals. By comparison there were 44,000 illegal immigrants.

Regardless of what Reform say it is incredibly difficult to stop illegal migration because by definition it is illegal. "Sending them back" or "smash the smuggling gangs" may make a great sound bite but send them to where and what if the receiving country says no. France is very happy for them to leave France, just as Italy is happy for them to cross over into France. The only thing that can be done to deter illegal migration is to make the UK a less attractive destination so that the migrants prefer to say stay in France.

Thirdly growth in UK infrastructure such as healthcare, education, water supply, roads etc have not kept pace with the Current K population increase over the last 25 years. This is why stuff doesn't work so well or goes wrong, it's literally creaking at the seams. For example the last new water reservoir was built in 1992!

Personally I believe a lower UK population from reduced legal migration and the existing low birth rates would benefit the country not just economically but also environmentally and in the quality of life.

Yep. A king of capitalism. Sorry, I mean man of the people.

A millionaire of the people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wjgkr1750o.amp

@SimpleSister

"BTW I am a member of the Conservative Party and I despair at their incompetence.
Labour campaigned on being better. They are not. They had no plan they had been given access to the Govt accounts before the election. "
My recollection was that Labour campaigned on "not being the Conservatives". I remember the 2010 election when many voters said they would be voting for the Conservatives because they can't be any worse than Labour (except they were). The 2024 election was no different when people voted for Labour "because they can't be any worse than the Conservatives " (but they will be).

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

How many boat arrivals have Labour actually returned? I suspect fewer than the Conservatives since Albanians would have been the easier group to deport.

Yes this. Reform / Farage may be picking up votes due to it but are not the cause of higher numbers.

Brexit isn’t really a factor, the DA was not a deterrent, it was very low numbers and we took more than returned.

Policies here are though. So Labour’s approach will mean the UK is comparatively attractive.

https://www.durham.ac.uk/departments/academic/law/news-and-events/news/2023/february/new-report-on-small-boat-crossings-launched-by-professor-thom-brooks/

I can't find anything that says Brexit had no impact on the small boat crossings

Still no discussion about Reform's other policies. But Reform is not a single issue party. Of course not.

I do have a question.

What do they do in Aus?