To be really worried about Reform?

[FiveHorse]

Just that really. They’re predicted to gain the most from the upcoming elections, if this carries on could we see a reform government at the next general elections? Or is it press scaremongering as usual?

I'd want more info on this.. the article talks about numbers arrested... NOT reported crime, also over what period was the data collected from? Are those arrested even sent to trial and/or found guilty?

And why is the article blaming Labour? boat crossings have been happening for over 4 years under the Tories, with huge numbers of Albanians coming here under Sunak...

As for the nonsense on reparations.... FFS Starmer has totally ruled this out.

@MerlinsBeard1 can you link to the methodology used by Mr Bates?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/02/15/another-new-anti-immigration-pressure-group-is-launched-from-tufton-street-and-met-with-reams-of-media-coverage/

Some background on Centre for Migration Control

Common-sense test according to the article

The majority of illegal migrants are visa overstayers so they're not unvetted, they initially came here with the full blessing of the UK government. They also aren't being put up in hotels because, and I know this is going to blow your mind, illegal migrants tend to avoid interacting with the authorities at all costs.

Asylum seekers on the other hand are houses in former hotels and provided with the basics, but they're not illegal immigrants until their claim has been assessed and rejected. The reason this costs so much is because the former Tory government made a deliberate policy choice slow processing to a crawl and cut back funding to immigration services, so we now have a huge backlog and those people need to be cared for until their claim is assessed.

Why is it the people who screech the loudest about illegal migration don't even know what the term means?

I mean we've been having this same conversation for years now. At this point you've got to assume anyone who doesn't even know these basic facts is either a bad faith actor or not the sharpest knife in the block.

There’s a BBC article below with the term in the header. Presumably from a Labour briefing.

I think the background to Mr Bates's "study" really does highlight the need for one to do one's own research. As someone once said.

For what purpose?
Because the ECHR is no longer fit for purpose and gets abused by legal bods and their loopholes.

As it should be. Anyone staying in the UK illegally, should be deported. We already do that.
Are you serious? How many illegal immigrants currently reside in hotels, but we can't get rid off them because you guessed it... the ECHR. Why do you suppose Starmer is offering landlords 5 years of guaranteed income if they house immigrants rather than deporting them? Because it's cheaper than having them in hotels and the majority will be staying? Landlords offered five-year full rent deals to house asylum seekers

How many of the 8000 odd that have arrived on small boats this year alone have been deported?
Even the pathetic attempts from The Guardian (attached link) to make the government look tough on illegal immigration can't hide the piss poor statistics.
Deportations reach five-year high despite concerns of rights groups | Home Office | The Guardian
Additional statistics relating to Illegal Migration (April 2024) - GOV.UK

New Department of Immigration.
How much will that cost?
Much less than indefinitely sheltering illegal immigrants in hotels, paying off landlords to keep them and building more homes because of the housing crisis due to the population explosion. I'd be more concerned about the waste in the civil services as we speak, over a potential new department that intends to tackle all of the above issues.

France won't take them back.
France need to get a taste of their own medicine, fire with fire.

In relation to your other comments regarding costings, I'd say the same as I have above.

Illegal. It will be challenged. You need agreements with countries to return people and that could take a long time. Where will they be held until they're deported and how much will that cost?
Yet another reason to leave the ECHR. Why should require agreements to return people? Did we agree to take them in the first place. They should held in detention centres upon arrival and deported immediately. Again, this would cost much less than the current hotel situation.

The thought is terrifying. I think we’d see a lot of the same issues now facing the US if they got in. The problem is so many people feel disenfranchised with the current system, patronised by the left, and unfortunately believe the lies they’re fed by MSM.

Leaving the ECHR will not help with deporting people

The Supreme Court pointed out, non-refoulement is protected in many other international conventions and treaties that the UK has signed up to. This includes the UN refugee convention, and the UN international covenant on civil and political rights. It’s also protected in domestic UK law. Leaving the ECHR, therefore, would not free the UK of the obligation not to send people to a place of harm.

@MerlinsBeard1

Because the ECHR is no longer fit for purpose and gets abused by legal bods and their loopholes.

All laws can be abused, don't you want laws in case they're abused?

It's true that some people aren't being deported because of rights such as the right to a family life.

You either want a two tier justice system where some people don't have equal rights or you take away everyone's rights.

Which is better?

Your point? Does that invalidate the information gathered from the police force?

France won't take them back.

France need to get a taste of their own medicine, fire with fire

What should that look like in your opinion?

@MerlinsBeard1 what is the chicken nuggets example? Do you have a link, please?

Any stats can suggest anything at all, which is why research should be peer reviewed.

The housing crisis will be huge. Demand for rental property that is already high will rocket, and therefore house prices will follow.

Great for home owners, not so for tennant or those looking to buy.

As I have said. CMC claims to be “a think tank committed to controlling and reducing migration to Britain” There is no information on who is involved.

All the reports on the site are written by Mr Robert Bates, who, we have established is the person who runs CMC, the trading name of Athelney Campaigns. The sole person connected to this company is Mr Bates.

I can't seem to download the report in question, so can't see the data gathered, the methodology etc. etc. So it is tricky to know how reliable this "report's" conclusions are.

The government are offering over market rate for rents with a five year lease. Taking over boiler maintenance, decorations, all maintenance. Landlords will go for it. There's zero downside. It's such an awful decision.

The comments about illegal immigrants in hotels - are people talking about asylum seekers? Which are a different beast?

Was that the story published by the Telegraph that was debunked or something different,

Well of course that's what the E in ECHR stands for after all! European. How do you suppose non European countries keep from violating one another?

'The ECHR was partly written by the UK and gives us the opportunity to take the government to court for human rights violations. Why are you so keen to lose your human rights?' What makes you think the UK can't retain laws to protect human rights without being in the ECHR? To suggest coming out of this would mean loosing human rights is sensationalist scaremongering.

Trump is a nasty individual in your opinion. Calling him nasty could be seen as unpleasant and divisive... You see how easily that can be applied to anyone who disagrees with you.

In what way does Farage support Putin other than to have pointed out NATO expansion has provoked him.. which is a fact. Nigel Farage says he ‘admired’ Putin for ‘control of running Russia’ | The Independent

Do you realise you can support some of what an individual says or does whilst disagreeing with other aspects or said person? It is possible to separate the two you know. Farage said Andrew Tate was ‘important voice’ for men in podcast interview | Nigel Farage | The Guardian

I wouldn't bother, JHound. They don't want to acknowledge the difference.

He didn’t even have to persuade half the population.

Just half those who chose to vote.

If you sought genuine asylum (I know what is happening in SA at the moment and it is horrific) and came through legal routes you would be more than welcome.

At this point I am resigned myself to a Reform victory at some point. I think if people think that Brexit or the election of Trump saw racists emboldened then they have seen nothing yet.

And the people who are keen to embrace any negative narrative about immigrants / those seeking asylum but refuse to actually check the validity of data are actually scary to me.