To be really worried about Reform?

[FiveHorse]

Just that really. They’re predicted to gain the most from the upcoming elections, if this carries on could we see a reform government at the next general elections? Or is it press scaremongering as usual?

That said I do vehemently think some of our judges have lost the plot of some of the deportations they block but I am not sure that has anything to do with the ECHR given judges in other EU countries don’t seem to have this problem.

How do you explain peak asylum granted in 2002 pre Brexit?

Logic and facts don’t persuade people - it’s stories, hearts and minds and repeated consistent messaging over and over and over and over again. Social media is where the battle for votes is and money buys visibility and time

Well yes, you and everyone else in the UK is against illegal immigration? I don't think you'll fins any support for it here, or anywhere else. Kier Starmer and the entire Labour party also against illegal immigration, which is why they are deporting them?

So when Labour say they will swap illegal immigrants one for one as they arrive at the border who do they mean?

Like in the Daily Mail article from 16th April with the headline Britain in talks with France over one-for-one migrant swap deal with small boat arrivals exchanged for people who have legitimate claim to live in UK?

Where the use the term migrant as opposed to illegal immigrant?

Interesting the DM says that but the BBC has

16 April 2025
The UK government is in negotiations with France on a scheme to return illegal migrants who have crossed the Channel in small boats.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/

quick skim doesn’t explain the 2002 peak. Though the initial jump was in 1999, with similar levels each year to 2002 before rapidly falling back.

Did all those come in on boats? I understood that most came via train/lorry etc until recently.

Lorries were found to be pretty dangerous so there was clamp down. Obviously being in the EU had no bearing on asylum numbers which were very high.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200304/cmselect/cmhaff/218/21808.htm Answer my question para 38

I can't find anything directly from Labour about it, only reports in the media, using their own words, so no idea what's really been said.

However, it doesn't change the facts.

Entering by boat, undocumented, is illegal. It ceases to become illegal when you make a claim for asylum. So as long as they do this, they are not illegal immigrants, they are asylum seekers. The people in hotels - asylum seekers. Illegal immigrants obviously aren't claiming for any sort of help and aren't a drain on the state....because they're undeclared, so they can't rock up and ask for help.

Hmmm. Bit like the furore when anybody dare question Labour. @cardibach

No, but specifically boats - people go on about the numbers increasing, but I think if you look at the fact that boat is no pretty much the exclusive method used and look at numbers increasing total it’s not that clear cut. And Brexit made it impossible to send an asylum seeker back to the country of EU entry for processing.

It's only criminals who seem to use ECHR with the aid of parasite immigration lawyers and naive and out of touch liberal judges.

What about that group of private school parents who are taking the government to the ECHR court?

Correct, cardibach. Boat crossings began in 2018. Not sure what relevance 2002 has to that.

You don’t know why high numbers of asylum seekers granted whilst in the EU is relevant?

It’s clearly not a factor. Plus if you look at @Clavinovafigures returns under DA are very low. We took more than we returned. It was an entry into the U.K. if anything. It’s not that hard to see.

Some figures

The number of asylum applications to the UK peaked in 2002 at 84,132. After that the number fell sharply to reach a twenty-year low of 17,916 in 2010, before rising slowly to reach 32,733 in 2015.

The number fell, then rose again and then dipped during the first year of the pandemic (2020). In 2022, it rose to 74,751 applications, the highest level since 2002.

84,425 people claimed asylum in the UK in 2023. Small boat arrivals were 29,437.

108,138 people claimed asylum in the UK in 2024, which was 18% more than in 2023 and 5% more than the previous recorded peak of 103,081 in 2002. In 2024, 84,231 claimants were main applicants and 23,907 were dependants. 34,978 (32%) arrived on a small boat.

Because this whole obsession with refugees didn’t really exist before the boat crossings started. It didn't dominate headlines and political debate like it does now.

It was less visible which is not a surprise since it’s a back of a lorry. But the public reacted to suffocation event and a clampdown followed.

That wasn’t to do with Brexit.

Brexit hasn't helped and it gave Farage a platform.

Yep. Remember this?

Indeed @PandoraSocks
Remind me someone…has Turkey joined the EU yet?

Let's see how far they get as the purpose of ECHR now is all about stopping criminals being deported. It's a didlsgrace what's become of it.