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To be really worried about Reform?

1000 replies

FiveHorse · 29/04/2025 13:09

Just that really. They’re predicted to gain the most from the upcoming elections, if this carries on could we see a reform government at the next general elections? Or is it press scaremongering as usual?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
23
Whammyyammy · 01/05/2025 14:14

justasking111 · 01/05/2025 14:05

The government are offering over market rate for rents with a five year lease. Taking over boiler maintenance, decorations, all maintenance. Landlords will go for it. There's zero downside. It's such an awful decision.

I totally agree. Some landlords will see this as a no brainer/easy monet, thus removing their houses from open market and for immigration only.
And there was me thinking that discrimination had been removed from the rental market....

EasternStandard · 01/05/2025 14:14

PandoraSocks · 01/05/2025 14:09

I wouldn't bother, JHound. They don't want to acknowledge the difference.

I think if Labour and the BBC use illegal immigrants as the term it’s not surprising it gets general use.

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:15

PandoraSocks · 01/05/2025 14:09

I wouldn't bother, JHound. They don't want to acknowledge the difference.

Ok just checking because I thought there was some news update I had missed.

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:16

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:12

If you sought genuine asylum (I know what is happening in SA at the moment and it is horrific) and came through legal routes you would be more than welcome.

Even of they did not come through legal routes (most of which are closed for non-Ukranians) as a white South African they would be welcomed even if they came via an illegal channel crossing boat.

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:17

EasternStandard · 01/05/2025 14:14

I think if Labour and the BBC use illegal immigrants as the term it’s not surprising it gets general use.

I have only heard them refer to hotels as housing people seeking asylum?

EasternStandard · 01/05/2025 14:21

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:17

I have only heard them refer to hotels as housing people seeking asylum?

It’s in the BBC article below re swapping illegal migrants.

BIossomtoes · 01/05/2025 14:22

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:12

If you sought genuine asylum (I know what is happening in SA at the moment and it is horrific) and came through legal routes you would be more than welcome.

There are no legal routes - as has been pointed out to Suella Braverman on countless occasions.

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:23

Foreigners three times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British citizens

I will copy and paste the contents of the article in case you don't wish to sign up to read this. There is a whole lot of info.

Foreigners three times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British citizens. Crime league table puts Albanians as nationality most likely to be arrested, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians, Moroccans and Somalians.

Foreign nationals are more than three times as likely to be arrested for sexual offences as British citizens, according to the first analysis revealing the scale of crime by migrants.
Police made more than 9,000 arrests of foreign nationals for sexual offences in the first 10 months of last year in 41 of the 43 forces in England and Wales.
This represented a quarter (26.1 per cent) of the total estimated 35,000 sexual offence arrests, according to the first analysis of its kind by the Centre for Migration Control of data from police forces, the Home Office and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Foreigners were 3.5 times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British suspects, based on a rate of nearly 165 arrests per 100,000 of the migrant population against 48 per 100,000 for Britons.
For all crimes, foreign nationals were arrested at twice the rate of British natives, accounting for 131,000 of the arrests from January to October 2024.
While foreigners make up nine per cent of the population, they accounted for 16.1 per cent of the total number of arrests according to the figures, released under freedom of information (FOI) laws.
The crime league table places Albanians as the nationality most likely to be arrested, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalians. There were 48 nationalities with a higher arrest rate per 1,000 of their populations than British suspects.

According to the analysis, foreign nationals were arrested at almost twice the rate of British people in the first 10 months of 2024, with 23.9 arrests per 1000 for migrants compared with 12 per 1000 for Britons. For sex offence arrests, the rate rose to 3.5.
Foreign nationals account for 5.5 million people in Britain, according to the ONS, while the British population is 53.5 million.
The 9,055 foreign national arrests for sex offences works out at a rate of 164.6 per 100,000 of the population, compared with 25,680 arrests of Britons – a rate of 48 per 100,000.
Some forces recorded higher rates of arrests of foreign nationals for sexual offences. In the City of London, they accounted for two-thirds (66.9 per cent) of the arrests. The Metropolitan Police recorded 39.2 per cent, while in Derbyshire it was 44.8 per cent and in the West Midlands 38.8 per cent.
The FOI data for arrests for rapes, which was only available from 29 of the 43 forces in England and Wales, show there were 2,775 arrests of foreign nationals for the offence.

For all crimes, Romanians accounted for the most arrests at 11,678 followed by Poles (9583), Albanians (5,665), Indians (5,414), Pakistanis (4,171), Nigerians (3,317), Lithuanians (3,253) and Iranians (3,000).
However, once weighted for the respective populations, based on the latest ONS figures from 2021, Albanians had the highest arrest rate at 209.8 arrests per 1,000 of their population followed by Afghans (106.9), Iraqis (92.9), Algerians (72.7), Moroccans (70) and Somalis (64.6). The rate for British suspects was 12.
The Government publishes data on the ethnicity of people arrested and the nationalities of foreign offenders held in UK jails of which there are more than 10,000. Albanians are the largest nationality, accounting for 13 per cent, followed by Poles, Romanians, Irish and Jamaican.

Robert Bates, the founder and research director of the Centre for Migration Control, said: “There should not be a single foreign national in the UK who is breaking our laws. Not one. Yet we somehow have over 10,000 foreign nationals in Britain’s prisons, many more on probation or released into the community, and a merry-go-round of repeat offenders that we are unable to deport.'

In 2024, foreign nationals were arrested at twice the rate of British people, with over 130,000 detentions, this is despite them accounting for just nine per cent of the population. Violent crime was by far the most common offence type committed, but we must give special focus to the fact that over a quarter of all sexual offence arrests last year were of non-British citizens – and over a third of these were for rape, including those under the age of 13.
Other crimes committed within this category were sexual assault, child grooming, trafficking and voyeurism.

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:25

I know I previously said I would not be surprised and expect a Reform election but now I think it HAS to happen.

I have found here and in real life, when I have tried to have good faith discussions with would be Reform voters - there is no data driven argument that can dissuade them. You show them about crime having fallen, deportations being up, how actually their belief as to who gets social housing etc is incorrect using data. And they refuse to accept anything that contradicts what they vehemently believe to be true.

So if logic cannot work then you just need people to experience what a Reform government would be like.

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:26

DuncinToffee · 01/05/2025 13:26

Common-sense test according to the article

The ONS supports this. Bury your head in the sand all you want.

PandoraSocks · 01/05/2025 14:28

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:26

The ONS supports this. Bury your head in the sand all you want.

ONS supports what?

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:28

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:23

Foreigners three times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British citizens

I will copy and paste the contents of the article in case you don't wish to sign up to read this. There is a whole lot of info.

Foreigners three times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British citizens. Crime league table puts Albanians as nationality most likely to be arrested, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians, Moroccans and Somalians.

Foreign nationals are more than three times as likely to be arrested for sexual offences as British citizens, according to the first analysis revealing the scale of crime by migrants.
Police made more than 9,000 arrests of foreign nationals for sexual offences in the first 10 months of last year in 41 of the 43 forces in England and Wales.
This represented a quarter (26.1 per cent) of the total estimated 35,000 sexual offence arrests, according to the first analysis of its kind by the Centre for Migration Control of data from police forces, the Home Office and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Foreigners were 3.5 times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British suspects, based on a rate of nearly 165 arrests per 100,000 of the migrant population against 48 per 100,000 for Britons.
For all crimes, foreign nationals were arrested at twice the rate of British natives, accounting for 131,000 of the arrests from January to October 2024.
While foreigners make up nine per cent of the population, they accounted for 16.1 per cent of the total number of arrests according to the figures, released under freedom of information (FOI) laws.
The crime league table places Albanians as the nationality most likely to be arrested, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalians. There were 48 nationalities with a higher arrest rate per 1,000 of their populations than British suspects.

According to the analysis, foreign nationals were arrested at almost twice the rate of British people in the first 10 months of 2024, with 23.9 arrests per 1000 for migrants compared with 12 per 1000 for Britons. For sex offence arrests, the rate rose to 3.5.
Foreign nationals account for 5.5 million people in Britain, according to the ONS, while the British population is 53.5 million.
The 9,055 foreign national arrests for sex offences works out at a rate of 164.6 per 100,000 of the population, compared with 25,680 arrests of Britons – a rate of 48 per 100,000.
Some forces recorded higher rates of arrests of foreign nationals for sexual offences. In the City of London, they accounted for two-thirds (66.9 per cent) of the arrests. The Metropolitan Police recorded 39.2 per cent, while in Derbyshire it was 44.8 per cent and in the West Midlands 38.8 per cent.
The FOI data for arrests for rapes, which was only available from 29 of the 43 forces in England and Wales, show there were 2,775 arrests of foreign nationals for the offence.

For all crimes, Romanians accounted for the most arrests at 11,678 followed by Poles (9583), Albanians (5,665), Indians (5,414), Pakistanis (4,171), Nigerians (3,317), Lithuanians (3,253) and Iranians (3,000).
However, once weighted for the respective populations, based on the latest ONS figures from 2021, Albanians had the highest arrest rate at 209.8 arrests per 1,000 of their population followed by Afghans (106.9), Iraqis (92.9), Algerians (72.7), Moroccans (70) and Somalis (64.6). The rate for British suspects was 12.
The Government publishes data on the ethnicity of people arrested and the nationalities of foreign offenders held in UK jails of which there are more than 10,000. Albanians are the largest nationality, accounting for 13 per cent, followed by Poles, Romanians, Irish and Jamaican.

Robert Bates, the founder and research director of the Centre for Migration Control, said: “There should not be a single foreign national in the UK who is breaking our laws. Not one. Yet we somehow have over 10,000 foreign nationals in Britain’s prisons, many more on probation or released into the community, and a merry-go-round of repeat offenders that we are unable to deport.'

In 2024, foreign nationals were arrested at twice the rate of British people, with over 130,000 detentions, this is despite them accounting for just nine per cent of the population. Violent crime was by far the most common offence type committed, but we must give special focus to the fact that over a quarter of all sexual offence arrests last year were of non-British citizens – and over a third of these were for rape, including those under the age of 13.
Other crimes committed within this category were sexual assault, child grooming, trafficking and voyeurism.

The first issue with this is the Telegraph is using incorrect figures. The 9% figure they use for the foreign population in the UK is from 2004. As of 2024 - the latest available census data shows that the foreign born population is 16%.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/

While foreigners make up nine per cent of the population, they accounted for 16.1 per cent of the total number of arrests according to the figures, released under freedom of information (FOI) laws.

So in other words - foreigners arrest rates are on par with their % of the population.

And of course that is an arrest rate - not a conviction

Maitri108 · 01/05/2025 14:28

@MerlinsBeard1

To suggest coming out of this would mean loosing human rights is sensationalist scaremongering.

Then what's the point of coming out of it? If we're going to retain exactly the same rights, why leave?

Trump is a nasty individual in your opinion. Calling him nasty could be seen as unpleasant and divisive... You see how easily that can be applied to anyone who disagrees with you.

Well it depends on which side of the fence you're on of course. You don't think a rapist who talks about 'grabbing them by the pussy' is a nasty individual. You don't think that sacking ten of thousands of people with no warning is nasty. You don't think that ripping off a leader whose country is currently at war and humiliating him on the world stage is nasty. You don't find anything Trump does nasty or divisive which says a lot about you.

All Farage has done since he was elected is orbit Trump. His constituency is one of the most deprived in the UK and he's barely been there. Yet you think he's a supporter of the working class.

Farage has said many times how he admires Putin. Putin is a ruthless dictator. I'm sure he's been nice sometimes but that doesn't negate torturing civilians in Russian prisons and all the other human rights violations he's committed.

Andrew Tate tells young men about raping women and is currently being prosecuted for rape and trafficking. The UK has a domestic abuse crisis and you seem to be condoning abuse.

Do you see what happens when you blindly follow nasty individuals? You end up trying to justify the inexcusable.

EasternStandard · 01/05/2025 14:28

JHound · 01/05/2025 14:25

I know I previously said I would not be surprised and expect a Reform election but now I think it HAS to happen.

I have found here and in real life, when I have tried to have good faith discussions with would be Reform voters - there is no data driven argument that can dissuade them. You show them about crime having fallen, deportations being up, how actually their belief as to who gets social housing etc is incorrect using data. And they refuse to accept anything that contradicts what they vehemently believe to be true.

So if logic cannot work then you just need people to experience what a Reform government would be like.

You’re missing something though and that’s the increase in crossings against Labour’s ‘smash the gangs’ pledge.

That is easy to see.

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:29

Shakeoffyourchains · 01/05/2025 13:29

The majority of illegal migrants are visa overstayers so they're not unvetted, they initially came here with the full blessing of the UK government. They also aren't being put up in hotels because, and I know this is going to blow your mind, illegal migrants tend to avoid interacting with the authorities at all costs.

Asylum seekers on the other hand are houses in former hotels and provided with the basics, but they're not illegal immigrants until their claim has been assessed and rejected. The reason this costs so much is because the former Tory government made a deliberate policy choice slow processing to a crawl and cut back funding to immigration services, so we now have a huge backlog and those people need to be cared for until their claim is assessed.

Why is it the people who screech the loudest about illegal migration don't even know what the term means?

I mean we've been having this same conversation for years now. At this point you've got to assume anyone who doesn't even know these basic facts is either a bad faith actor or not the sharpest knife in the block.

Can you provide links to support this? Thanks.

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:35

Maitri108 · 01/05/2025 13:50

@MerlinsBeard1

Because the ECHR is no longer fit for purpose and gets abused by legal bods and their loopholes.

All laws can be abused, don't you want laws in case they're abused?

It's true that some people aren't being deported because of rights such as the right to a family life.

You either want a two tier justice system where some people don't have equal rights or you take away everyone's rights.

Which is better?

'You either want a two tier justice system where some people don't have equal rights or you take away everyone's rights.'

Or option C. An improved set of rights that are applicable to all but do not allow for the current absurd abuses.

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:37

Alexandra2001 · 01/05/2025 13:52

France won't take them back.

France need to get a taste of their own medicine, fire with fire

What should that look like in your opinion?

Escorting boats back to Calais.

BurntBroccoli · 01/05/2025 14:38

Rosie8880 · 01/05/2025 05:50

in the part of London I work in - in one London borough - every week there are 120-130 new cases / requests for housing. We have a backlog that spans 10 years. People who are seeking homes via council support have a 10 year + wait.

the housing crisis has been created by the following - not immigration.

  • in the 1980s thatchers government banned local authorities from using any of the monies captured via rent from social housing to be reused to continue to build new council homes
  • at the same time, her government introduced a new scheme called right yo buy - where council tenants or others could buy for knock down prices a council home. This was a vote pleaser but effectively took council homes out of social rent into the private hands and massively reduced council homes stock.
  • until the 1980s approximately 1/3 of all homes were rented from the council. The original idea/ point of council homes were that they were for all kinds of tenants providing affordable homes for all. Not just the cheapest homes for those most vulnerable.
  • after thatchers government made those changes, council stock massively reduced - they were sold off and councils were banned from using monies to build more homes. This meant that former council homes were now being rented out for loads more and previous council tenants were pushed into the private housing market. Housing benefit that used to be paid to the council for thr rent of councils own properties - a nice virtuous circle - was now being paid to private landlords - another loss of income for councils.
  • so, for the past 40 years councils have been banned from using monies captured as outlined above to build new homes. Our current government reversed that ban.
  • over the last 40 years we have seen a reduction in actually affordable homes, a reduction in the number of homes aciabke that are affordable for a third of the population and the cost of housing as a result (limited stock vs increased demand) soar.
  • the situation with housing has nothing to do with immigration - it has everything to do with previous housing policy and an adherence to free market economic principles.
  • labour are not pushing to come for your homes to house immigrants ok - that is not a policy. if reform are pedaling this they are lying and also stoking dangerous messaging that is divisive.
Edited

This - a million times over!!!

BIossomtoes · 01/05/2025 14:41

Or owing to food sensitivities, sensory issues and difficulties communicating emotions.

The Home Office has appealed the decision.

PandoraSocks · 01/05/2025 14:43

Yes, it seems an unreasonable decision, which is presumably why

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper appealed the judgment in August last year, arguing there was not enough evidence to show Disha’s deportation would be “unduly harsh” on his son.

Upper tribunal judge David Merrigan, who delivered the latest ruling on the case agreed, referring the appeal back to a new judge for further review.

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:43

BIossomtoes · 01/05/2025 14:22

There are no legal routes - as has been pointed out to Suella Braverman on countless occasions.

If that were the case every immigrant in this nation would be illegal. They aren't.

DuncinToffee · 01/05/2025 14:45

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:26

The ONS supports this. Bury your head in the sand all you want.

Can you provide the ONS statistics because as far as I can see the ONS primarily focuses on ethnicity when analyzing crime data, rather than nationality

MerlinsBeard1 · 01/05/2025 14:46

PandoraSocks · 01/05/2025 14:28

ONS supports what?

The three times more likely stat.

snughugs · 01/05/2025 14:46

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o.amp

What’s the problem? I’d be quite happy with this.

I am retiring to the Highlands. I’m sick of how overcrowded and full the cities are now. There’s far too much immigration and I hate it, not the people love the people (mostly) hate the policy. Even scrapping the nhs how it is at present is unsustainable and I’d be happy to have the French model.

We do need to sort out the immigration issue especially the people who can’t really afford to stay here without help of the state. If they pay for themselves it’s not as bad but I know people who work in the housing department the stories I hear make me sick. The entitlement, the cost of interpreters £80 a hour, the sulking at their Argos vouchers and wanting the cash instead. The Pakistani cousins who need forms filled in for ivf treatment when they already have one children highly disabled due to them being cousins of cousins of cousin. I could go on but this can’t go on. The young and most educated will leave and rightly so. It’s not rose tinted specks things were better 30 years ago. I’ve been in business all that time. When labour came in I saw the “poor” had much more money than in the 70/80s. That was unsustainable especially if you’re importing poor people from Poland etc. After 2004 you could see the change was not positive and it’s been downhill since.

What surprises me the most as I’m in an house I own outright. So I’m good and will help my son on the ladder in a few years. Why do poor people who won’t get council houses, have had their wages stifled by importing cheap labour topped up with British taxes for housing benefit and tax credits, not realise this isn’t racism it’s putting the country back to a quieter place where young people can get a home and a decent wage?

Graphic of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage

Reform UK manifesto 2024: 11 key policies analysed - BBC News

BBC correspondents analyse key policies in the Reform UK manifesto.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqll1edxgw4o.amp

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