To think that Trump is not going to honor any agreement about Ukraine

[FancyRedRobin]

I'm seeing that Starmer is going over to say to Trump that he should offer security guarantees with the deal with Ukraine.

I just don't believe that Trump or America will honor any agreement made.

And what consequences can we leverage on them to make them do so? I'm not sure there enough levers to do so.

We've allowed them to have an outsize influence on world affairs and now the tiger is eating our face.

Trump changes his mind with every bowel movement it seems. He's not even a functional person, let alone a responsible or trustworthy one. Probably has a personality disorder and we all know how much chaos and misery they can cause.

I think the only leverage Ukraine has are the minerals, but I can't even imagine how that's going to work. The world is in for a chaotic four years.

Can any world leader honestly head into any negotiations with him, knowing all this?
This whole approaching him and hoping for the best doesn't seem to be working out.
He's a loon and the country is going to be a basket case for the foreseeable.

Trump has no honour so he won’t.

The trick is, I think, to get something agree that doesn’t require him to do anything in his term of office, or where anything he might have to do is in his self interest.

Trump wants to work with Putin and I doubt either will honour any agreements. They've both broken them anyway. When Ukraine gave up their weapons, they were promised that Russia wouldn't invade and the US would help protect them.

There's talk of Musk giving Russia use of Starlink. They've gone to the dark side.

I agree.
Trump loves Putin.

Agreements entered into under duress aren't legally binding. Can't establish whether it meets the international threshold for economic duress as I'm not a lawyer but good luck to the USA to enforce it down the line. In any case, if Putin wants the metals, he'll go after them and he has already secured substantial reserves as I understand in the disputed areas currently under Russian occupation.

Either way the whole thing leaves a very bad taste. Trump has essentially twisted Zellenskys arm behind his back like the massive bully he is, in full view of the whole world and both USA and Russia are now blatant in that the whole thing, the tens of thousands dead, maimed and injured was over resources which would have been sold to the highest bidder and freely available on global markets irrespective.

The Budapest Memoranda of 1994 offered Ukraine security guarantees backed by Russia, US and UK in return for Ukraine getting rid of its nuclear arsenal. China and France agreed similar (slightly weaker) guarantees at the same time.

So as far as I can see security guarantees are not worth the paper they are written on where the US is concerned.

To lower the tone somewhat - Trump is Putins bum boy and will do anything he says so I’d not be confident he’d honour any agreement outside what his hero wants. It will be interesting to see how Putin plays this as it could go tits up.

80+ years of accumulated global soft power has now been obliterated.

Even after Trump is gone, trust in the US will be non-existent as other countries will always worry about “the next guy” tearing things up a la Trump.

Until now, governments could always trust that whether Republican or Democrat, the man behind the desk in the White House would always adhere to social norms and follow the principles established after WWII. That is gone and will take generations, if ever, to get that back.

Here's a thorough analysis for those made of strong stuff.

Some countries, especially the BRICS, are talking about UN peace keepers in Ukraine.

I find the whole thing horrendous, worrying and distasteful. Trump has a bloody nerve. The only tiny glimmer of positive I can see is if the US invest heavily in Ukraine to extract minerals there is a level of security in that they won't want their mines/extraction plants taken over by Russia? But then they have been exploited by the US instead. It's all very depressing.

Funnily enough I used that exact same expression myself the other day. I know it is extremely un PC these days but it does describe Trump to a tee.

I suppose what's stopping a Russian American alliance then? And where does that leave Europe?

I see capitulating to Trump and Putin about Ukraine about this as the first step in pushing borders.

It's extortion. Europe and UK need to ally quickly or else the carving up will begin and we'll be in a weaker state to resist.

I don't get why we're trusting this either

Why can't Europe provide its own security guarantee rather than rely on Trump. He might say yes and be no

Easier said than done. It has taken around 80 years to develop the current NATO security architecture. Forces are interdependent eg The UK aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth is reliant on US destroyer escorts and US fighter plane capacity. Our “independent” nuclear deterrent contains US components which we cannot make ourselves. Deploying troops to front lines depends on infrastructure supplied by other NATO nations.

Changing this would require a massive injection of finance. And it would take years for non US NATO nations to develop the manufacturing capacity and skill sets needed to build things.

And nobody is clear whether we are aiming to pay mpre to keep the US in NATO. Or whether we want to develop an independent capacity. Answering that question will also take years.

This is the reaction I expect from Starmer's visit to Trump: a warm reception, especially to the rumoured invite to Balmoral; defence budget of 2.5% of GDP by 2027 is not enough; USA will not provide a backstop to keep the peace in Ukraine; a wild card that not even experienced commentators have thought of; a random phonecall in the middle of the meeting- 'I'm here with Prime Minister Starmer. He's a nice guy. We're having a beautiful discussion. Britain is a beautiful country. Nice people. Nice people. I've been there a lot.'

@IdaGlossop you forgot a series of outrageous lies, that seems to be part and parcel of Trump.

Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not expand to the Russian border. NATO says 'oh yeah but that agreement was with the Soviet union, thats gone now'. Technically true but bad faith nonetheless. They're all liars probably including Zelensky. But if I was him I'd promise Trump the sun moon and stars. Then renege when he's out of office. It's what DT would do.

Ah yes. You're right. But who can better Musk's 'The UK government has enabled the rape of the whole country'? (I paraphrase)

DH is convinced The Donald is going to change the constitution so that he can be World King for the rest of his life. There is of course a precedent: Putin.

Sidestepping Putin's excuse for the invasion, what happens to Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe whilst Trump is king?

Sure Zelensky can sign over 20% of his land and his natural resources, then what happens when Trump gets behind Putin and his mad imperialist fantasies?

We have big problems in the UK. Our security and military services are tied to the US, it goes deep.

I expect that was why Starmer got on that plane. Because he needs to know if the UK is speaking to the US or Putin I reality.

It is a high stakes moment and not really about Ukraine.

Thank goodness we don't have any of the recent Conservative leaders as PM right now, they didn't have an ounce of sense or judgement. Hoping Starmer does.

I think the Royal Family are going to have to bite the bullet and marry off one of the girls to Baron Trump… That’s what they would have done in the past.

Badenoch would be joining them.