State school 6th forms oversubscribed

[LordGiveMeStrength]

AIBU to be concerned about the impact the new VAT on private schools will have on state school 6th forms?

Our local 6th form open days have been jam packed with so many year 11s moving from private schools.

Issues I see:

1. kids who have been at the local state secondary school since year 7 have been told their space in the 6th form is not guaranteed and if they don’t get as high GCSE results as other potential pupils they will not have a spot. The nearest private schools have amazing GCSE results so very likely to displace existing students to other state school options a far distance from their homes.
2. infrastructure - the local school is already heaving so accommodating a huge influx is not possible, buildings are already crumbling and it will take a long time before investment actually happens to improve the facilities.
3. false economy- currently kids in private schools don’t cost the government to be educated. Government’s plans are that money raised from VAT will pay for additional teachers (but I don’t see that happening immediately). If lots of private schools kids move to the state system not only will government not collect that VAT, but they will all be liable for educating pupils who previously were in the private sector. I believe the current cost from central government to educate in 6th form is £5k with additional payments for more academic subjects (eg further maths A level pupils will equal an additional £900 per pupil per year in the state schools). Apologies if these sums aren’t correct.

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/private-school-parents-vat-state-sixth-forms-3473062?srsltid=AfmBOopXOi5842QMq-qO1NqHGR9g9-4BOi6Gc0v_dlhBbFBTMmU5Prsi

They absolutely can.

DD's comp has increased the ask for 6th form this year to six 9-7 grades including English and Maths, with a tie breaker for over-subscription based on point scores (9 for a 9, 8 for an 8 etc)

They have enough places for 1/4 of current Y11 and are heavily oversubscribed by both internal and external applicants.

@OhCrumbsWhereNow

I don't think that many seem to appreciate that this is what many schools will do. Of course they'll increase their 6th form grade requirements if they know they can attract lots of applicants. They're going to want to attract those students who are likely to achieve the best A level grades, to increase their rankings in the league tables.

They can’t increase their requirements straight away though. It has to be consulted on and publicised. We changed ours to specify 5 in Maths and English Language. The previous requirements kind of assumed that would be met based on points, until someone didn’t meet it. They went on to struggle hugely at A Level, we didn’t have the capacity for resits (no resit classes) so there was loads to sort out. Obviously we did.

Every year there are a few students who don’t meet the (really quite low) grades to stay on and leave. However, everyone is given lots and lots of support and advice. All students are encouraged to have at least a Plan B.

I went to a grammar school myself in the 90s. It was the same then.

6th form open days are always packed. And there is always a lot of movement from private to state at 6th form level. Not least because some private school parents are misguided to think that Universities have lower entry requirements for state school kids.

It was published almost a year ago, consultations etc all done - so yep, that is what is in place. I just found it interesting when I looked back over previous years to see the significant increase for 2025.

This isn’t really new though, my DD grammar school is always chock full on open days for sixth form. Loads of kids go from private to public and vice versa. And they’ve also always had a minimum GCSE grade average needed to “guarantee” their place. Same with the other Outstanding rated schools in our area.

I'm in a grammar area. My ds is in the 6th form. All the local grammars offer places to all existing pupils as long as they meet the entry requirements (these have been the same for a number of years).

There is always a lot of movement between the grammar, non grammar and local FE college for year 12. It has never been a given that a child starts in Year 7 and progress straight through to the 6th form. All of them have to reapply and they do apply to a number of 6th forms.

We also have a number of independent schools in a 15 mile radius and many pupils leave at the end of Year 11 and move to a state 6th form. Yes, there will be more applying this year but they will not take a place away from a qualifying, existing pupil. The Indy pupils will essentially be competing amongst themselves for the external applicant places.

Most 6th form subject classes are not full so adding pupils to most classes costs the school nothing in terms of extra teachers. I'm fact extra 6th form pupils from private schools in eeps some subjects open which would have had to close during to a shortfall in numbers. Moving to state at 6th form has been a popular move for some long before the VAT increases. For some it's to take advantage of the smaller classes than state had prior 6th form. For others it's in the hope of not being seen as advantaged by universities in the scramble for the best places.

Check the policy. Current y11s who get the required grades cannot be refused. Because the school would be effectively removing from roll and they wouldn't have a legitimate reason to do so. You could appeal and would win.
They can have oversubscription criteria for external students that may have a tiebreaker such as highest grades etc.

6th form round my way is now closer to 30k - vat plus around 6-7% inflationary increase. We also have a school closing due to bankruptcy, so many are heading for state places. Interesting times ahead.

There surely are not schools that contract at 6th form to the extent of only offering 1/4 of the places in y11? The grammars often expand at 6th form taking in more students. We have high staying on numbers though. As 18% of 6th formers are privately educated it’s clear most have gone from state to private. Not the other way round. This % might reduce now.

The idea most students quit private schools in y11 is unfounded. Why would anyone quit Wycombe Abbey or Harrow? Hardly anyone would. A small school with no 6th form is another matter but the best schools hang on to their dc.

Most private schools are not like Wycombe Abbey or Harrow! Their fees are at the higher end to start with, so parents tend not to be as price sensitive. Also, the vast majority at those types of schools are boarders. As many of us have pointed out, those schools and parents will, on the whole, be fine. The switch to state is more likely to happen from the cheaper private schools, and mainly day pupils.

Yes and they were parents who would always consider moving for 6th form but posters seem to think loads move from all sorts of private schools. The stats tell you they don’t. The numbers have traditionally gone the other way to more than double the % of dc in private schools. That might change now. However planning for an unknown change in terms of buildings and classes is very challenging.

This sort of happened locally.

Local state school is very highly regarded with small catchment at Yr7. Tends to have a small intake for Yr12 from private schools, thought to be primarily pupils who didn't get high enough grades to stay at private 6th Form. There are local grammars so a planned/conscious move would steer towards them if that makes sense.

The usual procedure at the state 6th Form is that they open sign-ups after lunch on GCSE results day and this continues until Seotember term starts. Last September, they closed the door to anyone 'new' at 2.30pm 9n results day as they had an unusually high number of private school pupils transferring. Never happened like this before.

An unexpected consequence was that existing pupils whilst having a space could not necessarily do the courses they wanted as there were only so many places per course and they were allocated in order or GCSE grade. This year they had more people transferring from private schools who had very good grades so they took the places.

I have one friend who is very sniffy about private schools, and was delighted by VAT, has seen her own daughter having to change school and do a 2.5hr round trip as she could not do the courses she wanted. We know of quite a few more pupils who stayed but aren't doing their first choice subjects.

None of this is an issue where we are.

Agree. Another parent of a year 11 child who needs a sixth form place. Get a grip.

All this reasoning is littered with “most”. Most schools. Most kids. It’s just ignorant - the issues are obviously localised. Some places will have significant problems resulting from the policy, other places will be unaffected.

Anyway. Idiots voted for this policy thinking the govt could just pick the pockets of private school parents. No thought was given to any other consequences. So here are the consequences - suck em up, it’s what the electorate chose.

In a few years, numbers will dip due to the fall in birth rates. I suspect a new round of moaning will ensue.

As mentioned, moving to state from private at sixth form is common, as the more grown up age group, and the fact that taking a chosen set of A levels filters out a lot of misbehaving kids who were previously forced to be there, means that the behavioral issues which can make private school more attractive for under 16s are drastically reduced.

I think it is quite common to pay for age 11 to 16 only, for reasons I just posted. If I were to return to the UK, those are the only ages I would consider paying school fees for, unless some sort of unusual or unexpected circumstances developed.

Unless the state primaries are really bad, I don’t think private primaries or preps are remotely worth it. And by 16, kids are testing into different schools and courses, and are mostly growing out of the stroppy Year 9-type misbehavior; the minority of teens who are still very disruptive at this age are much less likely to be doing A levels. Sixth formers are also far more able to self study some of their work, and will be expected to do this at both state and private sixth forms. They are doing fewer subjects, so tutoring is very manageable.

They could upgrade their grade requirements though

It would make the school look a lot better if you did

I really hope there’s an influx - especially if they opt for my subject! At my institution we have always have 2 A-level classes per Core (except the sciences which always have huge numbers) and Humanities, looks like we may be reducing to 1 for Sept. Bring on the extra kids please!

There is an unedifying movement of private school parents just desperate for this policy to be causing havoc within the general population. It’s really not sorry.

Dd really hopes her lovely private school friends will come to her sixth form she is on a marketing mission with them.😀. With rather limited success as far as i can see anyway!

Its a temporary problem. The birth rate has been falling for years - i think the peak year is current year 10s. Give it a few years and it gets where state schools would have been undersubscribed and forced to cut subject choices to stay afloat. The influx of kids who would otherwise have been in private school will help resolve that problem & the government are well aware of it.