State school 6th forms oversubscribed

[LordGiveMeStrength]

AIBU to be concerned about the impact the new VAT on private schools will have on state school 6th forms?

Our local 6th form open days have been jam packed with so many year 11s moving from private schools.

Issues I see:

1. kids who have been at the local state secondary school since year 7 have been told their space in the 6th form is not guaranteed and if they don’t get as high GCSE results as other potential pupils they will not have a spot. The nearest private schools have amazing GCSE results so very likely to displace existing students to other state school options a far distance from their homes.
2. infrastructure - the local school is already heaving so accommodating a huge influx is not possible, buildings are already crumbling and it will take a long time before investment actually happens to improve the facilities.
3. false economy- currently kids in private schools don’t cost the government to be educated. Government’s plans are that money raised from VAT will pay for additional teachers (but I don’t see that happening immediately). If lots of private schools kids move to the state system not only will government not collect that VAT, but they will all be liable for educating pupils who previously were in the private sector. I believe the current cost from central government to educate in 6th form is £5k with additional payments for more academic subjects (eg further maths A level pupils will equal an additional £900 per pupil per year in the state schools). Apologies if these sums aren’t correct.

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/private-school-parents-vat-state-sixth-forms-3473062?srsltid=AfmBOopXOi5842QMq-qO1NqHGR9g9-4BOi6Gc0v_dlhBbFBTMmU5Prsi

@MayaPinion Which top public school? Not a boarding school presumably as parents are not local.

Anyone reading this thread would think there are no private 6th forms left! Private school 6th forms that were tiny and not very academic in the the first place are vulnerable. However these were not top private schools in the first place, in general. Mostly they are used as havens to take dc away from bad behaviour elsewhere. Rejoining the state system at 6th form eliminates behaviour issues as those dc have mostly moved on. The larger long established academic private schools will keep the vast majority of dc. Parents at these schools will never be interested in their local comp. For them, education is not just about results. It’s a much broader set of goals.

The variation between counties and boroughs for their sixth form admission policies can make it very difficult for those that live on the borders.
Some prioritise by post code others by GCSE grade. Some of my DC's friends had problems as just missed the grades for schools in our town but the nearby city college had originally rejected them on address. The alternative sixth form was miles away at the other end of the county and limited but expensive public transport.
However students from the city were taking up places in our town schools.
Fortunately the city college did take them on results day (an empty desk means missing revenue)

There is a massive problem in some areas of the country where there aren't enough local spaces for these kids. How is that difficult to understand? Not much use to you in herts if there are a load of spare spaces in Newcastle.

What do you think is happening? People are concerned and worried about this. Schools are saying they have not places. May be in your bubble and with your ideology you can’t see it but private schools children also matter. Even if they are only 7 percent.

Which schools are saying they don’t have places, quite the reverse round here. Link?

It depends on the child and the provision, surely? I'm very iffy about sixth form colleges in general but I'm an immigrant who went through a P-12 system where the major exams are at 18, not 16. I have huge issues around the concept of GCSEs in general, and I think there are a lot of kids who will thrive better in a school-based environment until they're 18. One of my kids is definitely in this category and fortunately there are at least two school sixth form provisions, including his current school, that will really suit him.

I haven't been as impressed by the main sixth form college in terms of the value add and breadth of its offer, but a lot of kids (and their parents) seem very happy with it so I suspect a lot depends on what you yourself grew up with and the local provision.

The suggestion is that private schools everywhere are rapidly emptying into local state schools and displacing current students.

I'm saying, not in my area they're not, and in fact private school kids coming to our sixth form in increasing numbers would be a good thing for the school.

Providing a contrast to your bubble, and your ideology.

Not everywhere. But plenty of areas where it has been publicised that at key points of moving e.g. Y12 and Y7, there are no state places in whole boroughs/counties.

I'm glad we're out of this for the eldest but it'll depend on area

His was highly sought after, usually by house price

Not sure if it's even more so now

What areas have no sixth form places?

Yes, but there are quite a lot more private sixth formers than private GCSE pupils, the percentage of privately-educated sixth formers is considerably higher. About double!

The idea of those parents "never" considering it is pushing it. I went to a very academic London day school. DH went to a religious boarding school as a day pupil outside London. DS1 went to a private London primary and then an inner-city London comprehensive. DS2 will follow.

@LondonLawyer I really meant removing dc for 6th form. Not changing your mindset a generation later specifically. I do know boarding didn’t suit some people and they would not want it for their dc but they can often afford the best catchment areas! So it’s a balance. If you look at the top competitive “public” schools, they don’t have a mass exodus for 6th form. Minor ones do but often the move is from boarding to private day. When people have invested 11 plus years into the private sector, the majority don’t leave. Stats at the moment show others join them.

They are closing our local state school 6th form despite opposition.

But surely at least some of that is simply an arithmetical effect rather than a true increase in numbers in private schools at 6th form?
I don't know the numbers but I would suspect that a higher percentage of private school pupils go on to do A levels than state pupils overall. If A is the number of private school pupils and B the number of state pupils and A/(A+B) ×100 = 7% or whatever the quoted number is for GCSE, if A doesn't change a great deal for 6th form and B drops considerably then you'd get a significant increase in the percentage without any real increase in absolute numbers at private school. I'm sure there's movement in both directions but without knowing the raw numbers rather than just the percentages you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the change. If the denominator decreases by a bigger proportion than the numerator then the % would go up even if nobody at all moved from B to A. In fact you could get an increased % even if the number of private pupils falls, provided the number of state pupils falls more. A doubling of the percentage of private school pupils almost certainly doesn't equate to a doubling of numbers but more likely reflects a higher retention of pupils to A level in the private sector.

Pretty much everyone on this thread has completely missed the point.

Private school parents pay tax towards the state education system but don’t “use” it. If they switch back into state the amount of education funding per capita student goes down.

There is a threshold percentage beyond which enough parents switch back into state that it costs the taxpayer more than the amount raised by the extra VAT — so the education funding per student drops below amount before the VAT was added, and the policy then loses the education system money compared to the preexisting situation.

Add to that, the impact on jobs and the rest of local economies if sone private schools close (the people who work in them aren’t rich: they are normal teachers, admin staff, caretakers, dinner staff, etc.). To those who say “well they can go and work in the state sector”, you’ve missed the point — the state sector won’t then have enough extra cash to employ them!

The policy hasn’t yet had an impact because it was brought in mid-year and many private schools haven’t even been allocated a VAT number from HMRC, so the impact won’t be felt until later in this year and ongoing from there.

It might not be happening in your area. There might be loads of places in great state schools in your area. (There aren’t in mine.) But it only takes just enough private school pupils to switch to state in total across the country, and then not only does the VAT policy not raise any money, it starts to lose the state education system money. (That is, of course, exactly what happened in Greece when they tried this and later had to reverse it.) We don’t know yet when, or if, that will happen, as the impact hasn’t even started to set in yet.

BUT - will all of you on this thread who think it’s not a problem still support the policy if it starts losing money? If the amount the state has to educate your child actually drops per head, no new teachers appear, and no new funding? Will you still support it then? (Remember: it doesn’t even need to be happening in your area as long as the total numbers moving from private to state across the country exceed a particular margin - and we don’t even know yet what margin that will be as the costing for the policy was so badly done.)

Well, you wouldn’t know this yet, as the first year you’ll see an impact will be from this September.

I agree @MrsAvocet - a mixture of higher retention and other factors. In my experience I also come across a number of non-EU citizens who go to private schools in the UK for A level, but not before that. (Although they probably don't have to pay VAT anyway? As non-residents?)

Apparently I should have seen it at open evening (nope) but also from last September, see the poster upthread claiming that her friend who was in favour of VAT’s daughter having been displaced from her sixth form by an influx of private school kids and now having a 2.5 hour trip elsewhere.

My DD is moving from private to state sixth form. She's had offers from all 5 schools we applied to

Am indifferent to the policy though thought upping the tax mid year and that suddenly was pretty mean. But the constant looking for negatives for everyone else as a result is not really a good look!

Agree with a PP. At a certain level private school fees might be ""worth it" to some families. But with an increase of 6-8% and then 20% VAT on top, the yearly increase can be as much as £12,000 a year extra over two years and at that point you start to question whether it's really that much better than state.

People on this thread haven't missed OPs point which was apparently concern about the impact the new VAT on private schools will have on state school 6th forms. Your point has been made (ad nauseam) on countless other threads.

We've got some under-subscribed suxth forms locally who would love an influx from private schools!

"Agree with a PP. At a certain level private school fees might be ""worth it" to some families. But with an increase of 6-8% and then 20% VAT on top, the yearly increase can be as much as £12,000 a year extra over two years and at that point you start to question whether it's really that much better than state"

Quoted @gatheryerosebuds above.

I think that's kind of the point - parents who can't really afford private need to ask themselves that question. Especially at 6th form. All the extra curricula stuff falls away. A good state 6th form will offer more subjects and outperform mediocre private schools. That's why the academic have always moved if possible.

At my son's 6th form you required pass grades across the board but 6, 7 or 8 for specific subjects you wanted to study at A level. Level 9 in English but 7 in maths would not entitle you to study further maths even if you had 10 more level 9s in unrelated subjects. The place would go a a student with 8 or 9 in maths with 5, 6 or 7 in unrelated subjects. As it should.

Being all a good all rounder at GCSE won't help you at A level or degree level unless you are aiming for an all round degree at a prestigious university. If you have no particular strengths or skills but know how to answer an exam question. Then the financial input is worthwhile because merit alone is unlikely to lead to success!