Are we heading into a major recession?

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Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

Wealth has been consolidated in the hands of fewer.

We are also seeing the effect of poorer countries like China "catching up" - for a long time we relied on over consumption of cheaply made goods from poorer countries.

The uk has always been poor at investing compared to other economies. We spend/consume too much. Businesses and the government need to invest in the assets required to improve productivity - technological improvements, infrastructure, training our workforce to improve output

We are well known in IT/engineering for proving stellar graduates - who are being headhunted elsewhere. The UK is highly regarded in that field. We are desperately trying to fill this gap with people not up to scratch. The result? Globals are hiring elsewhere and people are relocating.

This - for some reason we refuse to pay engineers & scientists well in the UK. They can earn vastly more elsewhere in countries with lower housing costs. We will pay a law grad a starting salary of £60k but a brilliant engineer will be offered half that.

I'd advise following Gary's Economics on IG or YT. The outlook is all a bit shit I'm afraid.

@0ohLarLar Most law grads don’t start on anywhere near £60,000. If they did it would be the best returning degree in terms of earnings. It is not. Medicine is. Look at the up to date starting salaries for engineers and additional benefits. For MEng engjneeing grads, in most engineering disciplines, £30,000 is long gone for those on grad post degree schemes. Engineering firms compete with finance careers for engineering grads so low starting salaries are unattractive. Any MEng grad should get Chartered and earn well fairly quickly if they are any good.

I do think we are heading into the worst recession and biggest reset of my 68 years. We're seeing the shift from West to East, and I do think it is going to turn the world upside down.

Brexit is to blame and wealth inequality.

Can you answer why the rest of Europe are in a worse state than us - if ‘brsxit is to blame’

The lack of education of how our economy works in this country however is woeful. Clearly.

They aren’t in a worse state than us.

They’re not.

amp.dw.com/en/germany-economic-crisis-business-response-2025/a-71437667

www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/if-you-thought-2024-france-was-bad-wait-for-2025/

This link explains why European industry has been in a deep recession for the last two years (linked to energy prices) and the lack of government resources available. Europe is struggling terribly and now faces tariffs from the US.

www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-economy-stagnated-last-quarter-foreshadowing-weak-2025-2025-01-30/

I'm really hopeful our stance on Ukraine will help with this - it would be common sense now to realise Trump and Putin are not allies and we need to stay away from the crazy and keep a system we know that works.

Huge investment in Solar and Wind would be good to cut reliance on Russia and reduce energy bills but I'm not sure it's a time to invest in much else.

I suspect that we are already into the early days of a really serious recession, but I am not sure that either the politicians or the public have cottoned on yet.

I think you’re right but not about politicians being oblivious. I think it’s all too obvious to them and they’re frantically trying to stave it off. I imagine Hunt wakes up every morning heaving a huge sigh of relief that he’s no longer chancellor.

Well said. I've been saying the same about the UK becoming more self sufficient on renewable power since Bliar & Bush started their war on terror/oil nonsense in the 90's/00's.

@Devon24 thanks for those links I do hope people read them
Its really important to know what's going on beyond our borders and it's obvious that the world has been struggling since covid and the Ukraine war.
Any clip from France or Germany you have unhappy citizens wanting prices to come down and everything we want here.

Just to say: millions of homes have gas. Who is paying for them to change to electric? Plus owners don’t want to change. What seems a great idea, never is. Plus the countryside hates wind turbines. There’s a huge lobby against them blighting the green and pleasant land.

You are absolutely right. They are completely in the dark - talking about rejoining the customs union to the sinking ship that is now the EU - it’s like they can’t actually see what is happening right before their own eyes. I find it frightening, the denial and desperation clinging to an old world that is already dead and buried.

This time there isn’t a solution. Reeves is certainly not remotely up to the job, and the Labour Party are out of their depth.

The problem with renewable power is it's total and utter lack of predictability.

If the sun don't shine, and the wind don't blow then you don't get no power.

So you end up having to have "baseline" power stations to smooth the gaps.

At which point you find yourself asking why not just have all baseline power stations and no renewables. Especially as - mysteriously - despite being "free" energy, they require subsidies (just ask the Reform MP for Dubai, Richard Tice).

If the human race survives, our descendants will wonder how we managed to invent almost limitless energy in 1942, and then spent the next near-century pretending it never happened whilst inflicting an energy crisis on the world. I doubt they will judge us kindly.

It’s utter stupidity that’s why. No one should look back at these decisions kindly - bankrupting farmers and therefore ruining our self sufficiency is not exactly the way to go.

That's just a parochial temporary issue. Not a structural decades old one like ignoring cheap energy.

Also that argument would hold a lot more saw if we were actually self sufficient. Since we aren't (and haven't been for at least 80 years) it's less of a mic drop moment.

What I have said for years also, is that the science should have been looking at large scale storage alongside power production. Rather than have 2 plus tons of metal in a car running around with massive batteries. Put those storage batteries in the garden of houses.

The reason renewable energy is so expensive is that the producers are paid to switch off production when the grid requires less electric. Far easier to disconnect a wind turbine than turn off a nuclear reaction or gas turbine generator.

It would be a very unusual day in the UK where no wind was blowing in coastal or high ground.

Not to mention the fact we are an island surrounded by tides that could be harnessed. With that you get four bites of the cherry each day so to speak. Two tides in and two back out.

Renewables do not produce gas. Who is paying for the switch to electric? No one. Householders refuse and much of our housing stock isn’t suitable. I have 4 batteries for storing the power we generate. They and the system we have cost loads. Most won’t pay and cannot pay.

We now have additional defence spending. Unless we get people working and producing goods snd services, we will continue to have economic problems.