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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

Are we heading into a major recession?

430 replies

bodychanges · 12/02/2025 13:16

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

OP posts:
Papyrophile · 14/02/2025 12:22

Just about every person in our circle of family and friends has lived and worked outside the UK for extended periods. Most of us could retire to other countries via various schemes or residential visa purchases, taking our state pensions and our assets, and be welcomed. We'd have to pay for health care but after the first year or two, there's usually an option to join the local mutual insurance (income-related in most EU countries). Some countries have more appealing tax/IHT rules, but not many jurisdictions are totally tax-free.

Government's job is trying to work out the art of taxation... which, according to a 17th century French finance minister, is finding a way to pluck the goose to get the most feathers without too much hissing.

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 12:22

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 11:44

All good then. @Housesformouses reassured me, nothing to worry about. Oxbridge and Ivy level credentials can't be argued with. RR has them after all, at least Oxbridge.

Hoping this is an attempt at sarcasm. RR is well out of her depth and I would be surprised if she is still around in her current job at Easter.

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 12:38

Obviously I don't know your son so it can't be personal but a general observation that when people make claims like their own DC being the brightest of the bright, the basis of it is either their own insecurity or the reality of the situation being quite different.

How very dare you?! 😆

Grammarnut · 14/02/2025 12:38

No, we're not heading there. We are in it. Profiteering by energy companies, war and volcanoes have got us here.

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 12:47

@Papyrophile no no, you can't go anywhere and take your wealth with you.

Given you're talking about retirement you're now of age when you have to be culled and your assets will be taken by the state. See earlier posts by @wipeywipe , @BIossomtoes and @SerendipityJane

Sorry mate

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 12:51

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 12:18

Oh calm down and feel free to dazzle us. Obviously I don't know your son so it can't be personal but a general observation that when people make claims like their own DC being the brightest of the bright, the basis of it is either their own insecurity or the reality of the situation being quite different.

Show quote history

What I actually said was that my son has gone to the EU. You provided the rest.
You asked where people are going, I answered.
You clearly can't debate without making offensive statements about others DC.

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 13:06

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 12:51

What I actually said was that my son has gone to the EU. You provided the rest.
You asked where people are going, I answered.
You clearly can't debate without making offensive statements about others DC.

Show quote history

No

I asked -

Are you saying they (your DC) are the cleverest and most driven DC? Really? Are they all amazing?

You responded -

Yes they are

So you provided the rest.

I am not saying young people don't go abroad. It has always been the case. It's the tropes around that I'm challenging.

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 13:08

@Papyrophile You may be fine to go. I just disputed @nearlylovemyusername claim that everyone bar those dependent on the state would all leave on the same day. I also made the point that many people have their wealth in property and I'm not convinced a mass exodus wouldn't impact said property sales.

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 13:27

A mass exodus would mean the property market would tank.

SerendipityJane · 14/02/2025 14:02

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 13:27

A mass exodus would mean the property market would tank.

Schrodingers whinge, isn't it ?

There is possibly a very loose circle happening where people who can move and are slightly repelled by the seemingly increasing right wing immigration rhetoric are leaving the UK. Because it follows they are exactly the sort of people the UK needs, this causes a skills shortage that acts as a pull to immigration.

One thing I know is that every possible measure all governments have attempted to reduce immigration have only served to increase it. The image of pushing water uphill springs to mind.

BurntBroccoli · 14/02/2025 14:17

neverthelastone · 12/02/2025 14:56

The whole economy is still blighted by having allowed the housing bubble to inflate well beyond sustainable fundamentals — ever since 2001, but particularly after 2010. There was a chance to allow it to continue to deflate after the financial crash; but instead the Coalition/Tory governments not only restarted the housing boom and pumped cash into keeping house prices high, but inflated them even further.

Now we’re entering a period where the collective salaries of younger workers won’t realistically be able to support current prices going forward, and there’s the triple whammy of extra pressure on the NHS, Brexit and an unstable world economy with stubbornly high energy prices at the same time. We’re likely looking at a decade or more of slow, painful unwinding, where the tax take is high but still isn’t enough to pay for crumbling services neglected during austerity; everyone gets squeezed and squeezed even more to no visible effect; Brexit strangles any economic growth at birth; and our living standards get lower and lower and lower while public services collapse.

The effect of the Tories’ misguided austerity policies, pumping money into housing assets (and encouraging even more landlordism), and the worst of all, Brexit, will take a long time to correct and we’re in for a lot more pain yet. These have been some of the stupidest, counterproductively short-termist, asset-stripping policies of the whole last century. I’m not a huge fan of Starmer so far, but the current direness of the situation is all squarely of the Tories’ making.

Edited

Absolutely all this!

Maray1967 · 14/02/2025 14:25

DaphneduM · 12/02/2025 14:36

Absolutely - of course we do. I don't understand why the Government isn't on the case as it's patently obvious Brexit has been a disaster for trade. The Government has taken on the pensioners with the scrapping of the Winter Fuel Allowance, so I can't think they'd be bothered about those that voted for Brexit. Anyone with half a brain would think we do need to rejoin the customs union and single market - Labour need to get cracking and sort it out.

Show quote history

I agree - this is exactly what must be done.

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 15:03

I agree - this is exactly what must be done.
I doubt the pp has summed up Labour's view on those voters given they're releasing deportation videos and deciding on citizenship

That's likely down to polling.

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 15:03

Here we go, for those still cheerful about Labour and their budget
My poor DD just can't find her first job after uni- it's bad out there. | Mumsnet

Everyone was happy about them putting up NMW for youngsters? was right thing to do? here's the consequence. Again, didn't need Oxford credentials to predict

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 16:23

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 15:03

Here we go, for those still cheerful about Labour and their budget
My poor DD just can't find her first job after uni- it's bad out there. | Mumsnet

Everyone was happy about them putting up NMW for youngsters? was right thing to do? here's the consequence. Again, didn't need Oxford credentials to predict

Edited

Depressing. Maybe Labour are going for a nation of house builders

No thanks if so

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 16:43

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 15:03

Here we go, for those still cheerful about Labour and their budget
My poor DD just can't find her first job after uni- it's bad out there. | Mumsnet

Everyone was happy about them putting up NMW for youngsters? was right thing to do? here's the consequence. Again, didn't need Oxford credentials to predict

Edited

A long job hunt immediately after graduation is nothing new. I temped for about a year before I landed my first graduate job in a competitive field in the late 80s when only about 7% of the workforce had degrees.

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 16:53

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 16:43

A long job hunt immediately after graduation is nothing new. I temped for about a year before I landed my first graduate job in a competitive field in the late 80s when only about 7% of the workforce had degrees.

Show quote history

I know you are not deliberate, but how one can struggle with comprehension that much?

That thread is about trying to get any job, temp, perm, grad, any... 900 people applying to one position in Tesco, people spending more than six months of job searching all day every day and no luck.

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 17:04

I think we’re reading different threads. And I don’t believe for one moment 900 people have applied for a bog standard shelf stacking job at Tesco. An unemployment rate of 4.2% is not indicative of a situation where most people are struggling to find a job.

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 17:06

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 16:53

I know you are not deliberate, but how one can struggle with comprehension that much?

That thread is about trying to get any job, temp, perm, grad, any... 900 people applying to one position in Tesco, people spending more than six months of job searching all day every day and no luck.

Show quote history

Your own comprehension of the thread seems somewhat selective. Did you also read that all her friends have found jobs and she is worried that temping will harm her CV?

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 17:15

I know you are not deliberate, but how one can struggle with comprehension that much?

The irony! 😆😆

SerendipityJane · 14/02/2025 17:16

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 17:04

I think we’re reading different threads. And I don’t believe for one moment 900 people have applied for a bog standard shelf stacking job at Tesco. An unemployment rate of 4.2% is not indicative of a situation where most people are struggling to find a job.

Isn't there a rule on social media that you have to accept any statistics as gospel ?

BurntBroccoli · 14/02/2025 17:20

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 15:03

Here we go, for those still cheerful about Labour and their budget
My poor DD just can't find her first job after uni- it's bad out there. | Mumsnet

Everyone was happy about them putting up NMW for youngsters? was right thing to do? here's the consequence. Again, didn't need Oxford credentials to predict

Edited

But all her friends did find jobs...
Clearly nothing to do with NMW going up (which is a good thing!).

"She has a 2:1 degree in international relations from a Russell group up north. All of her friends have found jobs which doesn't help as I'm saying so many go"

SerendipityJane · 14/02/2025 18:05

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 17:57

UK unemployment is rising. Current rate is 4.4%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate

All of a sudden a fraction of a percent is massive ....

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 18:07

😆