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Original poster

Are we heading into a major recession?

430 replies

bodychanges · 12/02/2025 13:16

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

OP posts:
BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 18:10

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 17:06

Your own comprehension of the thread seems somewhat selective. Did you also read that all her friends have found jobs and she is worried that temping will harm her CV?

Show quote history

Precisely.

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 18:14

All great then, if you read the opening post and nothing else, fantastic. No issues then. Enjoy the ride

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 18:27

SerendipityJane · 14/02/2025 18:05

All of a sudden a fraction of a percent is massive ....

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Its rising. Fact.
There was no correction to the pp who stated that it was 4.2.
If you actually look, you will see that the projection is 4.6 by September, but we wouldn't want pesky facts to get in the way would we. Carry on.

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 18:29

nearlylovemyusername · 14/02/2025 18:14

All great then, if you read the opening post and nothing else, fantastic. No issues then. Enjoy the ride

I read the whole thread. The general tone is supportive and that it will work out but could take some months. Nothing new here. That was the same twenty odd years ago. A few posters said it was tough out there but a lot of positive outcomes listed too. It sounds like you have been reading a different thread.

SerendipityJane · 14/02/2025 18:38

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 18:27

Its rising. Fact.
There was no correction to the pp who stated that it was 4.2.
If you actually look, you will see that the projection is 4.6 by September, but we wouldn't want pesky facts to get in the way would we. Carry on.

Show quote history

4.3% to 4.4 % a rise of 0.1%. A figure so small it's not even worth thinking about according to some on this thread.

feel free to counter with statistics that are more offficial

Are we heading into a major recession?
wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 18:44

A figure so small it's not even worth thinking about according to some on this thread.

Exactly

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 18:50

SerendipityJane · 14/02/2025 18:38

4.3% to 4.4 % a rise of 0.1%. A figure so small it's not even worth thinking about according to some on this thread.

feel free to counter with statistics that are more offficial

Show quote history

Has it risen from 4.0 in August '24 to 4.4 today? Yes or No?

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 18:53

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 18:50

Has it risen from 4.0 in August '24 to 4.4 today? Yes or No?

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No. That post states quite clearly it was 4.3% in August. No mention of 4.0.

TheNuthatch · 14/02/2025 19:01

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 18:53

No. That post states quite clearly it was 4.3% in August. No mention of 4.0.

Show quote history

If you look at the link I posted, the UK unemployment rate fell from 4.1 to 4.0 June-Aug 24. At the end of Aug going into Septemeber it went up to 4.3.

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:10

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 18:07

😆

Laughing emojis seem to be the default from some

Are you in the public sector?

BurntBroccoli · 14/02/2025 19:14

@SerendipityJane
Helps to look at the bigger picture too

Are we heading into a major recession?
potatopaws · 14/02/2025 19:24

neverthelastone · 12/02/2025 14:56

The whole economy is still blighted by having allowed the housing bubble to inflate well beyond sustainable fundamentals — ever since 2001, but particularly after 2010. There was a chance to allow it to continue to deflate after the financial crash; but instead the Coalition/Tory governments not only restarted the housing boom and pumped cash into keeping house prices high, but inflated them even further.

Now we’re entering a period where the collective salaries of younger workers won’t realistically be able to support current prices going forward, and there’s the triple whammy of extra pressure on the NHS, Brexit and an unstable world economy with stubbornly high energy prices at the same time. We’re likely looking at a decade or more of slow, painful unwinding, where the tax take is high but still isn’t enough to pay for crumbling services neglected during austerity; everyone gets squeezed and squeezed even more to no visible effect; Brexit strangles any economic growth at birth; and our living standards get lower and lower and lower while public services collapse.

The effect of the Tories’ misguided austerity policies, pumping money into housing assets (and encouraging even more landlordism), and the worst of all, Brexit, will take a long time to correct and we’re in for a lot more pain yet. These have been some of the stupidest, counterproductively short-termist, asset-stripping policies of the whole last century. I’m not a huge fan of Starmer so far, but the current direness of the situation is all squarely of the Tories’ making.

Edited

This.

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 19:27

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:10

Laughing emojis seem to be the default from some

Are you in the public sector?

Show quote history

Give it a rest. You’re like a stuck record, anyone who disagrees with you must work in the public sector. This obsession is beyond tedious.

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:29

@BIossomtoes funny I think that about your posts every time you quote

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:31

Moving on from aggro there is a discrepancy between public sector and private

It's not hard to work that out

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 19:37

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:10

Laughing emojis seem to be the default from some

Are you in the public sector?

Show quote history

What's this fixation on the public sector? It seems to be catching.

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:39

Interesting people get defensive when asked

It's easy to see the drivers for private and public sector are different

I want a gov that supports growth in the private sector and not just construction

I have no interest in that, for my dc either

Public sector will have other issues

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 19:39

BIossomtoes · 14/02/2025 19:27

Give it a rest. You’re like a stuck record, anyone who disagrees with you must work in the public sector. This obsession is beyond tedious.

Show quote history

Yes, it's very odd. Is it that some imagine some utopian parallel existence if people work in the public sector?

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:42

People are angered it's odd.

I know the rate is high and I'd prefer more private sector insight on here

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 19:42

Are you in the public sector?

😆

Housesformouses · 14/02/2025 19:43

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:42

People are angered it's odd.

I know the rate is high and I'd prefer more private sector insight on here

You are speaking in riddles. Why are people angered? What do you think life is like in the public sector? Did you see the news last night? It didn't look like a picnic working in A&E in the Royal Free Hospital that's for sure.

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 19:46

Is it that some imagine some utopian parallel existence if people work in the public sector?

Apparently they only communicate with laughing emojis.

EasternStandard · 14/02/2025 19:47

@Housesformouses

I haven't anything bar ask people if they are and look at the responses

Nothing wrong with a yes if so

As for what it's like I'm sure it's tough, that's another issue which may not improve if funding from the private sector gets hit

wipeywipe · 14/02/2025 19:49

But why equate emojis use with any sector? Thats illogical.