Are we heading into a major recession?

[bodychanges]

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

Bless you, it's appalling for people trying to get ahead isn't it.🌹

I was talking more about culling the population do we weren't an ageing population anymore as opposed to 100% IHT.

Where would people escape to @nearlylovemyusername? other countries are going to be willing to take millions & millions of people?

And who is everyone going to sell their house & business too?

Leaving all state dependants on this island.

These people? 😆

ah, your view on IHT again.

What view?

I've never said I want 100% tax & in case you're unsure I don't think we should be culling everyone over 60 or whatever.

It would help if your posted your ideas in one coherent post, but I'll try:

Not sure what's your line of business, I spent 30 years working for multinationals. You cannot even imagine how easy it is to relocate (get visas) for highly skilled layer of population. They are welcome everywhere. Between EU, OAE and US they could easily find homes. Set up new businesses there and move assets. It doesn't even require all of them to move - top 2-5% leaving UK would make this country a proper slum. Mind you - our most driven and highest IQ youngsters are already leaving in droves.

Another factor is that an individuals power in the political system is related to their investment in it.

Or - more bluntly - old people have too much power.

A persons political outlook on life aged 70 is probably not encompassing the same issues, needs wants and aspirations of someone aged 18, Yet by and large the 18 year old will be saddled with a government that suits the 70 year old.

Now if a persons voting strength was related to their life expectancy ... such a system is marginally less controversial than an enforced cull.

However all political systems will face the same problem of how to change once power has become beached in on particular demographic. Because if they can't be gently persuaded to redistribute power, the eventual and inevitable correction will be less gentle. An analogy with how tectonic plates remain stuck for years and then realign in a few seconds would be useful here for readers with imagination. (Those without can talk amongst themselves).

Being closer to the end of my life than the beginning means I have skin in the game. As do we all. Whether we know it - or like the persistent non voting 33% - not.

Just imagine the vast inflow of money into the treasury with the initial cull, it would be huge. Set it at pension age and the estates of 12 million people would belong to the state instantly. There’d be a saving of £125 billion every year too. Huge win for people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Mind you - our most driven and highest IQ youngsters are already leaving in droves.

I don't disagree & have said similar upthread.

You cannot even imagine how easy it is to relocate (get visas) for highly skilled layer of population.

Why do you think I can't imagine this? I'm just not convinced that millions & millions of the UK population falls into this category....

I also don't necessarily think the people
you mentioned in the actual post I replied too eg anyone who's hard worker /has some wealth falls into your above highly skilled category. As I already asked who are these hard workers selling their assets too?

@SerendipityJane agree

Out of interest, where are the most driven and highest IQ youngsters leaving in droves to? Asking for a friend.

US, Dubai. Italy even. My business have just opened a new tech and R&D hubs there. Most of people who're recruited there are British.

"Our provisional estimate of total emigration for year ending (YE) June 2024 is 479,000, which is higher than our updated estimate for YE June 2023 (414,000)."

"British nationals made up 16% (79,000)"

but there would be mass exodus the same day

Disagree with that.

@Housesformouses pre covid a few friends in tech went to Portugal. I know some
medics who have gone to Oz. Then places like Dubai are popular as tax free. I have definitely encouraged my dc to think about other countries, I'm a 2nd gen immigrant so they have less restrictions.

My DS has gone to the EU easily. Two of his mates have gone to the USA. SIL and BIL have gone to UAE.

That has been the case for 30+ years. Nothing new there. And far from all being super bright and super driven.

Are you saying they are the cleverest and most driven DC? Really? Are they all amazing?

Yes I am.
Are you in complete denial that we are experiencing capital flight and brain drain? There are much better opportunities abroad, and the brightest are more than welcome by other countries.
I have read on other MN threads that some of the top private sixth forms are employing staff with the specific purpose of getting students places at US universities

I am saying that has been the case for years. After Oxbridge and Ivy level post grad study I lived in a range of countries 20+ years ago. Nothing is new. And I'm laughing at you saying your DC are the brightest. Guessing from that statement that they are most likely not. Try again.

All good then. @Housesformouses reassured me, nothing to worry about. Oxbridge and Ivy level credentials can't be argued with. RR has them after all, at least Oxbridge.

Because anyone who's hard worker /has some wealth and is below culling age would quickly escape with their families.

So are the above the brightest and the best or not? All Oxbridge educated? Or is just anyone not state dependent @nearlylovemyusername?

Yep I don't think it'd work

'I'm laughing at you saying your DC are the brightest. Guessing from that statement that they are most likely not.'

How dare you make a derogatory comment about my son. You have no idea who or what he is.

Oh calm down and feel free to dazzle us. Obviously I don't know your son so it can't be personal but a general observation that when people make claims like their own DC being the brightest of the bright, the basis of it is either their own insecurity or the reality of the situation being quite different.