Taking bets... Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch?

[Papyrophile]

Which will lose their party's favour first?

I did factor it in, it won't save her. But then she is not seen as as a long term prospect within the party anyway.

I thought it off of CCHQ to announce the change yesterday. Nothing says "We are confident in our new leader" like changing the rules wrt VONC. They should have allowed her her moment.

The 'toolmaker' references can't be erased.

Why should they be?

They certainly do and with good reason. I was struck at people's lack of awareness of how widespread rioting and civil disorder is treated by the courts.

But then I'm in NI, so I'm maybe more used to it than yous'uns.😆

Going by her dreadful performance on LK this morning very much KB.

How many times did he have to remind us his father was a tool maker. I'm sure he thought this would endear us to his working class childhood. Was there not some question as to whether his Dad owned the factory?

@mrshoho "I'm disappointed with Starmer already. The 'toolmaker' references can't be erased."

Why should they be? Preferable to the child of a gp and a professor saying she "became working class" when she had a summer job in McDonalds......

She's seemingly learned nothing from the election defeat.

As far as I can see the idea that his dad owned the factory came from a diary entry in which he mentioned keir having a summer job in 'my' factory. Now I know I've referred to ds as doing work experience in 'my' school and I definitely don't own the school. Even if he did own it, we can be pretty certain it wasn't some massive corporation - more like small business and therefore definitely not someone with broad shoulders who could be considered privileged, according to most non Labour supporters on here.

There's also David Cameron, who was party leader of the Conservatives for over 10 years (2005 to 2016) and was arguably the catalyst for the shower of absolute shit that has been British politics for the better part of the last decade.

Nicola Sturgeon led the SNP for almost 10 years too.

Long-serving leaders aren't the thing of the past that the post before refers to!

Kemi will last about 18 months

Labour in for at least a decade

Wow... I did not expect the scale of response, or the intensity. Apologies for posting and running. I am currently cooking lunch so give me a while to finish that task, and I'll be back. Do not expect any insights; I asked a question to which there's no definitive answer.

Lunch was okay... DH stepped in to finish it, as he shopped yesterday. I wonder whether KB or KS would have enjoyed braised partridges and vegetables. KB would probably have thought it bland (apparently Hamish is a very good cook) and KS might have thought partridge a bit country. Who knows? I am quite glad I am not entertaining either... although there is an open invitation to both of them if they are in the area.... I will cook you dinner.... and RR too, of course.

For background, this is posted from the rural SW, and locally it's not really very touristy but we have a lot of second homes. Rearing livestock for meat or breeding is the main farming income, but most farmers own unproductive land that they shoot over. Shooting is an important secondary source of income and so is hospitality. Lots of people who retire from important City jobs buy agricultural properties with pretty farmhouses or ancient manors and think they will use Agricultural relief schemes as an IHT shield. I applaud RR for ripping that tax dodge up. It was the best thing about her budget.

But somebody has to eat what is shot for sport and money, and there are truckloads of birds for sale at this time of year. I am told that the birds cost more to pluck and dress than they are sold for by the butcher so big shoots just bury most of the birds shot.

All this is me declaring the influences on me, and my prejudices. DH has a very small SME; we have one child, and we are 69, ready to retire. We have effectively both been self-employed since 1988, and we have between us inherited from DH's parents half of his parents' estate, after care home fees. What we have, we earned ourselves. During blessed times, perhaps. Pure. Luck.

So which K will crash and burn first? KB appears to be her own worst enemy. Reportedly she's hot tempered and volatile, but she brings something very new to UK politics. A Nigerian outlook, that's much more direct and confrontational. As she is now Leader, the MPs willl need to decide whether to trust her.

Keir Starmer is IMO a bit pedestrian. Safe but dull. I think he's okay but I don't feel he is going to come up with any transformative ideas to solve any of the UK's issues. The voting seems about right, and only time will prove otherwise.

But I should say that right now I have Labour pencilled in for one term only. There needs to be a huge economic surge to get them a second, and I don't see this budget as likely to create any feel good factors.

Labour will do one term and Kemi will be the next prime minister. She's the direct opposite of KS which a huge amount of the electorate want now: and will want much much more in 4 years time.

If their time in opposition is the same as last time the Tories were kicked out, then Badenoch will last about 12 to 18 months.

They ve had 5 PM's/Leaders in 8 years and that was whilst IN power.....

They are a split party, with a very small base in Parliament, too many factions and very few centralists, with few if any, natural allies in the 'commons.

Pundits have often said Brexit would destroy the Tories and i think that has come to fruition.

Its 5 years until the next GE, there will be huge turmoil in the UK & beyond in that time & it might start on Tuesday if Trump wins........

Then who is the leader of a small party in Parliament really wont matter.

Kemi, simply by dint of the positions they're both in. Starmer has a vast structural advantage.

Well, Badenoch was in Govt, the electorate could have had her back again but rejected her and the rest of them.

The recent poll, just one, had the Tories and Labour both in the mid 20s, thats not a huge amount of the electorate at all.

I don’t think it’s particularly important to most voters who the leader is. The most important issue to voters before the election was the NHS. If this government can get waiting lists down, keep its promises on increasing GP appointments and get more NHS dentists into the system it will be well on its way to a second term. A five year record of achievement which is perceptible to voters will go a very long way, regardless of the “dullness” or otherwise of the leader.

KB appears to be her own worst enemy. Reportedly she's hot tempered and volatile, but she brings something very new to UK politics. A Nigerian outlook, that's much more direct and confrontational. As she is now Leader, the MPs willl need to decide whether to trust her.

What is a "Nigerian outlook" @Papyrophile?

It's Keir

Any politician who manages to keep the NHS door open is likely to win. There's unlikely to be a big vote for the politician or medic who tells the public they are fat and unfit, and to lose 10kg before they return to ask for treatment. But that IS going to be part of the prescription.

2 tier Keir won’t last till the next election as he is so hated.

According to the article about KB earlier today, Nigerians are very direct people. They tell you to your face that you are an idiot. I don't claim to know. I have never visited Nigeria but school friends 50+ years ago grew up there.
Edited to tag @TooBigForMyBoots

It can be important at some points in the electoral cycle, but agree it isn't now. We're not at that point. Also, Starmer never had as much of a personal vote as some leaders do. So it matters less. I think a lot of people are fine with a bit of 'dull' for now, it'll depend on his record once he's been in long enough to do anything significant about the big issues.

I think people want more from a political leader than someone who calls them names to their faces.

Here's the wiki page on Nigerian politics. It isn't exactly something I want for our democracy. I could also see how Nigel Farage could use Kemi's "Nigerian outlook" to further split the right wing vote.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Nigeria