Taking bets... Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch?

[Papyrophile]

Which will lose their party's favour first?

She absolutely is extreme right wing - as close to Trump as you could wish for.

I'm not sure. They've managed to eviscerate their lead in just over 100 days and a GE that far away, they could just have the open goal set up by then.

It seems hard to imagine any bigger scandals emerging - the Tories did all they did in plain view, for one thing, with total indifference to its legality, and also this government show little interest so far. I think they may be either too busy with their budget or their own freeloading embarrassments, or just inclined to let it go. I want every penny back from the people who profiteered from Covid, but KS wants to imprison misbehaving rioters and release prisoners (but only male ones? anybody know how many women were early released?) early and he wins because he is PM.

No idea why anyone would think someone who has been leader for 4 years, built a strong team around him, strengthened his position by removing several opponents and won a huge landslide for his party is in a more tenuous position than someone who has just won a slim victory on a relatively low turnout, is inexperienced and is considered rude by her own supporters.

Unless something entirely unforeseen happens Keir will lead Labour into the next general election and if the country is in a better state than it is now in terms of public services, which is clearly their priority, they'll win. Especially if Kemi is still in the role and is arguing against funding these services.

@KTheGrey Rachel Reeves said during the budget speech that the covid corruption commissioner will be appointed shortly.

An older person, who was a Tory voter but is now a member of the Lib Dems told me that the average age of a Conservative member is 70+ so I don't know how the party can survive let alone Kemi. This person is from the home counties where the Conservatives had won for decades but then those older voters like him voted for Lib Dems as The Tories got it all wrong moving to their right of right wing and leaving EU of course!

Think it’ll be both Kemi and Kier at the next election. Think Kemi will survive Kier.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Kemi_Badenoch

She’s got space to move up or down.

I think it’s his unpopularity with the electorate that will make it difficult for him. But I would agree he’s been extremely savvy with negotiating Labour’s internal politics. So who knows.

Keir has never had particularly high personal popularity ratings. This was mentioned during the election quite a bit. It didn't stop him winning a huge majority. If people see improvements in the NHS and schools etc, the question of his charisma etc will become even more irrelevant. And if Kemi keeps on spouting stuff about maternity leave being too generous etc etc I can't see her popularity increasing much.

You forgot this one!

It was pretty good just after GE but Labour was high, that lead has gone

Oooh more data. It’ll be interesting what the public make of her, she only has 60% recognition according to the yougov poll.

It doesn't matter though, does it? What happens in the country between now and the election will make all the difference. No one in the party is going to make a move against him any time soon - why on earth would they? @EasternStandard

The Tories would have had to have done the same re: early release. Everyone knows that.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/25/scheme-release-prisoners-early-extended-indefinitely-england-wales

As for imprisoning rioters, do you not know what happened in 2011?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06099/

Kier Starmer wrote an opinion piece in the FT yesterday saying it’s going to be okay, exactly because the markets are starting to go against UK PLC after the budget. It’s not a shock reaction like Liz Truss mini-budget.

Here in MN that might be fine (“fuck the markets”) but it’s bad for the Starmer project. Increased borrowing and increased borrowing costs mean their funded projects have just got a lot more expensive. Hence the anguished cries to the FT readers who actually understand the economy unlike the government.

But neither Kemi or Jenrick were the answer.

Where have I posted that anyone in Labour are going to make a move? You must be thinking of another poster

My first post on here was that Starmer would still be in place for the GE regardless of ratings

Do you have a link please?

The markets have recovered.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/markets-react-on-second-open-after-budget-as-traders-concerned-over-some-announcements-13245812

Yes, the whole justice system is a mess and it would not have been better if another government had done it. So what? It doesn’t account for the issues around early release or the lack of consideration given to the women’s estate - and I will give KS’s government this, they are looking into the issues around women’s imprisonment. They will have to retrain the police as well though, so that will take a few years to work through.

Yes I remember 2011 and KS really hasn’t updated as the years have gone by, has he?

Kemi. Keir's in it for the long haul.

That article was from day 2. Since then the gilt markets are on the slide.
Here’s a Reuters article that covers it and is not behind the FT firewall.

www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-gilt-market-faces-worst-week-year-budget-rattles-investors-2024-11-01/

Some of the opinions on this thread are a bit bat shit - I think you’ve imagined somehow that votes of no confidence on a sitting prime minister are a common occurrence after the Johnson/Truss/May shit show. They aren’t, and it’s beyond unlikely that it’ll happen to Kier Starmer in the short or medium term given he’s just won a landslide election.

Kemi Badenoch however is an unelectable loon - she has absolutely zero chance of winning a general election and presumably the majority of Tory MPs know this. There was a merry-go-round of Tory leaders during the Tony Blair years, of course it’s going to happen again.

It's Keir. It's a longtime to the next election. And Keir doesn't really mind about being unpopular now. Long time to go.

Those who think Kemi will be toast soon need to factor in the recent 1922 rule change. It now requires a third of MPs to bring about a confidence vote. Shifted from 15%. That means 41 MPs instead of 19. That gives her much more leeway in opposition. She doesn't need eyes in the back of her head. Also, when she sticks the boot in on gender issues, she can draw blood from Keir but Wes has already shifted position on this to come up smelling of roses. I think Wes will in due course succeed Keir. However, the optics of Labour having another white male as the Tories win all the diversity plaudits aren't great.

Unfortunately I’ve already shared it three times so can’t do it again.

This is a copy from the last two paragraphs which are a bit desperate, channelling the Big Bang lol. A crash and burn event like the Truss mini-budget is
one thing but a quiet quitting is a very bad thing for the UK and they know it.
^^
This process involves detailed, often painstaking work. For that reason, it is not yet ready to be included in the OBR’s forecast for growth. However, we should be optimistic about the potential. A “big build” could become as transformative for working people as the Big Bang was for the City of London in the 1980s.
This government is determined to make the UK one of the best places to invest and do business, not just in Europe but the world. Only by working in partnership with the private sector can we deliver change, fix the NHS, rebuild Britain and make good on our promise of a decade of national renewal.