Taking bets... Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch?

[Papyrophile]

Which will lose their party's favour first?

Kemi won’t last until an election.

So everything is possible?

Fun posting, interesting ideas all, thank you. feel free to keep going, but I need a sleep xx

Kemi will suffer the same fate as the recent Tory leaders, she may think she's got a stab vest but so did the others. They may hate Keir but they hate each other more. 🍷 to Mrs Robert Jenrick and her starter for 10.

Where is the “centre” these days?
What is “extreme right wing” in relation to the above?

Kemi needs to to find enough credible people willing to form a shadow cabinet with her. Anyone who thinks her party is going to give her an easy ride is deluded.

There aren't many people to choose from are there?

He hasn’t had a “honeymoon” period that usually comes post election having not been in power for so long, and certainly no euphoria since he became PM.

He’s unsurprisingly suffered the biggest post-election fall in approval ratings of any British prime minister in the modern era.

Kemi is VERY disliked in her own constituency- mainly due to her far right and unpopular opinions, she is known for being ruthless and is practically invisible here. She only pops up for the odd photo opportunity just enough to cling on to her seat by a fingernail. Had the Labour candidate been a bit more experienced (she was good, but only 21 I think), Kemi would have lost.

The demographics of her constituency are changing rapidly, lots more Londoners moving to Essex and the older life-long tories dying out, the more liberal minded in the likes of Uttlesford now, much more in alignment with more liberal and left wing families.

That's what I see anyway and have been following for a while... I think Kier is a far more decent individual overall and Kemi is a hypocrite! Doesn't even have her family home here and her kids are educated in London I believe, but may be wrong.

Agree with others re Wes Streeting. He comes across as a capable and genuine person. He shows intelligence when speaking and displays empathy when meeting with people from all walks of life. Hope he stays the course.

What we need is neither of them, give me David Milliband Vs Rory Stewart and then we're talking

I don't want to go back to two men. I'm glad Kemi is in this

Re Wes in pp I don't think Starmer will budge for anyone, he'd have to lose a GE first

There is no way kemi is a woman's woman! The bar needs to be higher than xx chromosomes.
But I'll take your feedback and say ok give me Rory Stewart Vs Rosie Duffield or even Jess Phillips

Very much doubt Kemi will still be Leader in two years, let alone five.. they all hate each other deeply and are probably already plotting against her.

I like her as is. Not just due to the chromosomes ;

I don't mind RD though

I think with the increases in public spending in the mid term people will start to see reminders of what the country was like when it worked better, which will pull Kier back up. Ultimately Kier has built his team of MPs, whereas Kemi only has half that have the same ideology as her and of those 50% wanted the other guy.

Kemi Badenoch is awful. She won’t be leader of the Tory party in two years, they will be in a much bigger mess then than they are now.

Well, looking at the direction of the popularity polls, Starmer isn't exactly winning the approval of the people who lent him a vote as the least worst option.

I think Badenoch has a fairly easy job here. It looks very comfortable to sit in opposition carrying on as though you had all the answers but you couldn't possibly lay them out in case the government nicks all your best ideas. I mean, that's the script, right?

We can but only hope she isn't.

nor starmer & reeves.

theyre all a complete shit show & Ed need FAR better options.

Kemi wrote that this is the problem with the current situation in her manifesto essay.

"Due to ever-present, unfair power structures we need a constant focus on economic and social redistribution to support the ‘marginalised’, the ‘oppressed’, ‘victims’ and ‘the vulnerable’ – including the poor, but also certain group identities, (e.g. women, LGBT people, ethnic or religious minorities, the disabled or neuro-diverse, and migrants) as well as the natural world itself."

She sits firmly in the everyone for themselves bucket - sink or swim. She includes women in her bucket so god knows why anyone thinks she is positive for women's rights.

This. The party as usual messed up with their infighting and game playing.
Cleverley would have been far better and had experience.

Also so many have now left that forming a strong shadow cabinet is going to be a challenge.

S what makes you think Kemi will be any different? Isn't she going to spend thr next 4 years on the sidelines criticising?

I think that of the two, Keir is under more pressure, simply on account of being PM. Leaders normally resign after an election defeat. It's actually very unusual for a party to change leader mid-term when they are not in power. I think the Tories have only done it once (IDS) and I'm not sure Labour have ever done it. Therefore, Kemi will probably still be in post come the next GE.

Kemi's first test will be in May 2025 at the local county elections. They currently control 18 of the 21 county councils up for grabs and seven of the ten unitary authorities. A good showing there will help cement her position.

It won't be that easy. The last Tory government were so awful that as time goes on more scandals will emerge. I doubt that anyone who was a government minister will still be an MP come the next GE.

She is not popular with the parliamentary party. She has a habit of shooting her mouth off and pissing people off. The Tory party announced their new rules for VONC but even that won't be enough to save her.

She represents a shift to the right, but she'll never out Reform the Reform Party who have probably irrevocably split the right wing vote in the UK.

The Tory Party hasn't learnt any lessons from their catastrophic loss in the last GE. Until that happens, there is no future for them.

Popularity polls don't mean a thing atm. We have a new government. They are going to be the government for the whole parliamentary term. They're doing all the unpopular stuff now giving plenty of time for their policies to kick in and people to feel the benefits by the next GE.

Some of the big Tory players are slinking into the background so they can return like knights in shining armour when the proverbial hits the fan with Kemi. I don’t think we’ve too long to wait.