The issue for many regional (smaller) private schools, who aren't in the Harrow/Eton type bubble many assume them to be in, is a 20% drop in pupil numbers may make them unviable.
In that case, even if remaining parents could afford the increase, the school would close & the state system would be taking in far more than those initial 20%.
I am looking forward to the point, when data in the medium term on the full range of impact caused by this policy is available.
Many of the vocal advocates for this policy, will have some humble-pie to swallow.
Just a few points aside from the aforementioned closure of regional private schools (which by itself could end up costing more than will be raised):
VAT increase will cost state funded CEA allowance an additional £16million.
Private schools will be able to immediately submit VAT rebate reclaims, for past expenditure on cost and capital projects. For capital projects such as buildings this VAT liability could cost the Government hundreds of millions, as they can potentially go back 7/8 years depending on the capital expenditure.
VAT can subsequently be reclaimed on future vatable expenses, (up to 40% of typical school operational costs). This has to be deducted from any amount raised.
Any child who moves will then be subsidised by the taxpayer, who currently benefits from their pupil allocation for children who cannot afford private. This will cost money.
An ill thought out policy, which Labour knew would appeal to a wide ranging group of people, who love the idea that someone who has something they don't is paying more for it - but ultimately aren't experienced enough to understand the potential negative fiscal impact.
The Labour minister for education was on the radio before the election, and when asked how many pupils the free breakfast club would affect, she did not have the number. That says everything you need to know.