General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

It’s only people in the over 65’s who majorly vote Conservatives.

Alm the age groups below them vote mainly Labour. So a lot of the ‘over 55’s’ don’t care about tax.

Who even votes Tory anymore?😂

Funny l remember WMD and the Iraq war but some people have short memories

Hardly anyone. Only 40% of over 65s do.

My 20 year olds felt they had more than enough experience to vote. Why wouldn't they? What type of a cloistered world does a 19 year old live if they feel unable to vote due to lack of experience? All of my dc voted labour.

My Dd has told me that Labour are too right wing for her generation (gen z) but they vote for them anyway!

That’s a big generalisation. Anyone 55+ will be acutely aware of any tax implications re their pension. Many are seeing their retirement rapidly disappearing into the future.
I chose to take retirement at 60, I actually went a little earlier due to health reasons and the tax limits in place at the time which would have involved a big tax bill this year. Most of my contemporaries in the NHS have been leaving like rats from a sinking ship over the last 5 yrs. partly due to the knock on affect of the pandemic but mostly due to pensions maxing out. The change in policy this April was way too late. Many of us have experienced the huge benefits of early retirement while doing a couple of days private practice.
I know plenty of people outside of the NHS who are also in the same situation. Good pension planning means that they have chosen early retirement.

Fourteen years ago we may have been Labour voters but as we approach retirement we are not about to let Labour raid our future which we have worked hard for. The last 3 years have seen significant increases to pension values and the higher interest rates have meant that any savings are actually making money in interest.
in 2021 my savings netted about £100 in interest per annum, now I am earning £400 a month.
It is the first time in over a decade that savings have been able to provide an income.
So maybe, like many boomers/millennials we have quietly enjoyed a bit of a boom time. It’s not the done thing to brag about it while everyone else is struggling so beware of making too many assumptions about the over 50s.

I watched Carol Vorderman doing a piece on tactical voting and how to choose where to vote, i know where my friend lives she is like you voting Lib Dem to get the Tory MP out. It is going to be a interesting night I think

I was a teacher who retired at 58 (ill health) I’m 60 now.

Ive voted Labour all my life. And have sent Dh to do a proxy Labour vote for me.

I think that the scale has perhaps been exaggerated but the results stand. The only people predicting a Reform/Tory victory are the clueless and/or politically naïve

Just checked out my area on the site (North Wales). I think they could have underestimated the possible splitting of the anti Tory vote. This happened on Angelsey last time. The vote was split almost equally 3 ways between Conservative, Plaid Cymru and Labour. The conservatives won by a small margin which was the last thing many people wanted. It could happen there again and also in Bangor/ Aberconwy. I hope it doesn't. Incidentally, as a pensioner I would far rather pay a small amount of tax on a tiny proportion of my state pension than wait on a trolley in a hospital corridor should I become ill. We already pay tax on private pensions anyway. If we want good public services they have to be paid for.

The polls are always wrong, not always at a macro level but alwags a micro one. I can’t recall a time they were right

remeber the polls saying corbyn would win. Or that we wouldn’t leave Europe. Or that teresa may would habe a huge majority, or Boris a much smaller one.

if the polls are right this time it will be a first.

Labour aren’t going to raid your pension. You can stop worrying. High interest rates are bad for young people and the rest of the economy.
I’m nearly 60 and semi retired. I have savings. I’m not worried and I’ve voted Labour - because it’s better for the country.

They didn’t say Corbyn would win once it got close to the election. Polls for remain/leave were very close and some each side of the line. I don’t have quite such a clear recollection of the other two you name, but I think it was clear who would win in both cases. Polls aren’t bad. I hope.

I think many "shy Tories" might actually vote Lib Dem this time so it will be an interesting result that's for sure.

No they weren't. The Brext poll was clise and had Remain sneaking it. In the end Leave won on a tiny majority- nowhere near 20%. No one thought Cirbyn would win. I even got a job as a poll clerk to avoid the atmosphere at home when the inevitable happened.

The biggest winner in this election would be 'none of the above' if it were on the ballot.

Probably. It was the same in 2019. Though I think if there were a generic non-partisan fuck off Tories option too, that might beat out none!

I think the polls are way off. I only know of a handful of folk voting Labour (thank goodness). Worm has turned in our northern town and once a Labour town now looking to be Reform. Lots of support for Reform here.

They did say we would stay, you even say it yourself, and the polls did say corbyn would win.. as said, they aren’t always wrong at a macro level, ie who will get in, but the scale of it is always wrong. And the reason is so many people are undecided and so many change their minds,

The polls never said Corbyn would win. Not in 2017 and not in 2019.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

Anyway, an hour to go and we will have an idea of what's happening.

The arrogance of people thinking that who their own circle of friends and family are voting for is a better indication than multiple national polls conducted by people who spend their time trying to refine and improve the accuracy of polling. Really?

He’s definitely not cloistered but a very bright and analytical young man who has yet to find a party that his views and opinions align with. I would like to think that he will vote according to his own politics rather than those of his parents.
After 14 years of Tory government and not having experienced Labour government he doesn’t feel that he can make a definitive choice. He is not about to vote for a party that may not be in his best interests.

He has been critical of my views re the trans issue but it is finally dawning on him that it is not about gender but is about the whole equality issue. We have had numerous discussions about the misogyny and discrimination I have faced in my profession. Being a woman in any male dominated profession in the mid 80s was not easy. He has grown up with a mum who is the primary earner, something that many of his friends haven’t.
I hope that he becomes an intelligent voter, and not a champagne socialist who votes for Labour out of some bizarre reasoning that he is somehow benefiting the great unwashed by doing so.
In his own words “ none of them seem to be offering anything different, the country is almost bankrupt so it’s going to be grim for the next few years whoever is in power” he doesn’t believe in miracles or that we are going to wake up next Monday and everything will be fixed.

Same here.

No, they didn’t say Corbyn would win. Weeks and weeks before the election some did. Close to the election they were clear that he wouldn’t.
Brexit was so close it fell within the margin of error. Coming down on the side of remain (just) when it’s leave (just) isn’t being mathematically wrong.

Didn't the Tories knock money off our pensions?

The Truss Kwarteng mini budget.